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Rising confidence in favorable period for snow Dec 15 - Jan 1


earthlight

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Similar here, was initially suppose to be one of those typical snow to rain forecasts until 24 hours in but then 6-8"'forecast ended up becoming 16" MECS HECS event in like 12 hours of snowfall.

Plus another storm hit 3 days later in the mid atlantic but I don't think affected NYC as much but some places got back to back hits (both on the NESIS list)

 

19870121-19870123-5.40.jpg

 

19870125-19870126-1.19.jpg

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Not sure what happens after this but once to day 10 the shortening of the wave lengths do not look like what the ensembles were showing in its 10 -15 . 

 

Looks much more transient than a long torch to me . 

 

12z OP keeps Thrs Fri @ KNYC in the teens . 

post-7472-0-92969900-1417720819_thumb.pn

post-7472-0-64357800-1417720831_thumb.pn

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Day 6 - 10 are - 8C Below Normal from NYC and points N . By day 13 on the Euro ensembles push another trough through the lakes .

Day 14- 15 look like this again at 850 here . There does not seem to be an extended warm up .

 

Do you trade energy? You are pretty focused on HDD/A/B normal, etc... don't you know the only thing people care about here is snow? ;)

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Do you trade energy? You are pretty focused on HDD/A/B normal, etc... don't you know the only thing people care about here is snow? ;)

Transparent huh ?  Trade and Broker Equity Derivatives . Focus on UNG  in my universe so I am always looking to beat the draw .

Pattern comes 1st for me .

Then long tracking events I guess .

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Not sure what happens after this but once to day 10 the shortening of the wave lengths do not look like what the ensembles were showing in its 10 -15 . 

 

Looks much more transient than a long torch to me . 

 

12z OP keeps Thrs Fri @ KNYC in the teens . 

 

The Interesting thing from last week is that the Euro ensembles D 10 trough and ridge pattern looks generally

good. It always kept the warmest temps and strongest ridging to our west with the +EPO pattern. It's just that

the hint of a trough over the Northeast at D10 became deeper over time. I guess that it's just too far out

in time to correctly get the shortwave details correct .These +EPO patterns can

be notorious for pieces of energy getting stuck underneath near the Northeast.

 

Old D10

 

 

New D10

 

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The Interesting thing from last week is that the Euro ensembles D 10 trough and ridge pattern looks generally

good. It always kept the warmest temps and strongest ridging to our west with the +EPO pattern. It's just that

the hint of a trough over the Northeast at D10 became deeper over time. I guess that it's just too far out

in time to correctly get the shortwave details correct .These +EPO patterns can

be notorious for pieces of energy getting stuck underneath near the Northeast.

Old D10

attachicon.gifecmwf-ens_z500a_nhem_11.png

New D10

attachicon.gifecmwf-ens_z500a_nhem_6.png

And sitting back on Nov 29th there was no shot In hell that ensemble gave us any idea that the from NYC north you were going to see 8C Below normal in the 4 days following the end of that run.

I think there are a few posts alluding to not to buy the 500 looks on the EC In its LR . It Just washes out for some reason

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week 3 and 4 much better

 

The CFS weeklies also start the ball rolling in a better direction after December 20th.

Looks like the a move to a more neutral/negative EPO which could set the table for those

heights to build toward Greenland and the Pole by the time January rolls around.

 

 

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The CFS weeklies also start the ball rolling in a better direction after December 20th.

Looks like the a move to a more neutral/negative EPO which could set the table for those

heights to build toward Greenland and the Pole by the time January rolls around.

cfs-avg_z500a5d_nhem_4.png

cfs-avg_z500a5d_nhem_5.png

I like the look of the CFS, as you can see by week 4 the Aleutian low has pulled back west building an -EPO/+PNA pattern. You also see some above normal heights near the North Pole...that could be the start of an -AO developing. Remember last year our pattern set in just after christmas. Why anyone would cancel winter on the 4th of December is just ridiculous, this is typical El Niño climo.

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Plus another storm hit 3 days later in the mid atlantic but I don't think affected NYC as much but some places got back to back hits (both on the NESIS list)

 

19870121-19870123-5.40.jpg

 

19870125-19870126-1.19.jpg

 

ISP reported only 2" for the 1/22/87 storm and Setauket reported nothing for either of those two....and the averages from these locations make up an important component of these maps:

 

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/okx/SnowClimo/SnowClimoMain1.html

 

And while I am ranting about that, ISP's "least snowiest" December is in the books as 2003 (scroll to bottom):

 

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/okx/Winter2011-2012/ISP.html

 

Anyone believe that?  At least since about 2005, the contract observers at ISP have been doing a reasonable job.  The components of the ISP 30 year climo averages from the years preceding 2005 are wrong.

 

The only long term reliable snowfall record on LI is from the BNL at Upton (and maybe Bridgehampton), hence Upton gets it's own pink blob on the map in the first link.

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I like the look of the CFS, as you can see by week 4 the Aleutian low has pulled back west building an -EPO/+PNA pattern. You also see some above normal heights near the North Pole...that could be the start of an -AO developing. Remember last year our pattern set in just after christmas. Why anyone would cancel winter on the 4th of December is just ridiculous, this is typical El Niño climo.

 

It seems to have the same idea as the JMA winter forecast issued back on November 14th. The JMA is doing very

well so far for December with the dominant +EPO pattern that is developing. It drops the EPO to more neutral

or negative in January. The critical part of the forecast is how long until heights build over to the Pole and Greenland.

The JMA takes its time and has the lowest AO of the winter in February. But its still too early to tell how long

that process will take once we can get rid of the December +EPO that is typical for El Ninos.

 

 

 

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It seems to have the same idea as the JMA winter forecast issued back on November 14th. The JMA is doing very

well so far for December with the dominant +EPO pattern that is developing. It drops the EPO to more neutral

or negative in January. The critical part of the forecast is how long until heights build over to the Pole and Greenland.

The JMA takes its time and has the lowest AO of the winter in February. But its still too early to tell how long

that process will take once we can get rid of the December +EPO that is typical for El Ninos.

 

attachicon.gifDEC.png

 

attachicon.gifJAN.png

 

attachicon.gifFEB.png

I think the euro ensembles day 12 - 15 onward are already pushing the higher heights north towards hudson bay and by week 3 the weeklies are north of there while it builds the trough underneath.

We totally miss the torch. A few days above but that's it .

This has been my argument since page 1. Mute torch has been my opinion and now and now I don't buy it at all.

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I think the euro ensembles day 12 - 15 onward are already pushing the higher heights north towards hudson bay and by week 3 the weeklies are north of there while it builds the trough underneath.

We totally miss the torch. A few days above but that's it .

This has been my argument since page 1. Mute torch has been my opinion and now and now I don't buy it at all.

The past couple days the EURO ens. Have been more encouraging for cold and blocking towards the end of the month for sure. This all goes to plan in an El Nino Winter paul. I personally am excited for the post 20th period as we may actually be in the process in stepping down to the pattern we all want, +PNA, -NAO, -EPO, -AO

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I think I'm going to be wrong on our torch. We might get mild but not crazy torch. All models have been muting it for us.

Yes paul has been nailing that home for weeks now about the models overdoing the warmth during this period of relaxation

Furthermore, its nice to see the pattern change actually showing on some of the long range models

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