Rising confidence in favorable period for snow Dec 15 - Jan 1

[brooklynwx99]

Nice to see the country cold and a active STJ on the long range op gfs...

 

Looks like heights start to build around Greenland as well...

[Weathergun]

12z GFS  showing showing a stratospheric warming event, causing a PV displacement, stretching and partial splitting at many levels:

 

 

[REDMK6GLI]

12z GFS showing showing a stratospheric warming event, causing a PV displacement, stretching and partial splitting at many levels:

Now THAT is great news in hopes of kick starting the blocking over greenland

[earthlight]

12z GFS  showing showing a stratospheric warming event, causing a PV displacement, stretching and partial splitting at many levels:

 

 

It begins even earlier than that with a re-orientation of the vortex into a more favorable position. This plays well into the step-down process many of us thought would evolve around this time. 

[WintersGrasp]

Putting the thoughts of it "torching us" aside, if one took a glance at the 12z GFS, the first thought would be that we are in a pretty good pattern rather than a pretty bad one, and DEFINITELY a not a torch by any stretch of the imagination. This GFS run, although of course will be changing each run, does not only not have a period of prolonged warmth but doesn't have warmth for more than a couple days. As we sometimes say that the models trend warmer when they show an extreme cold shot in the long range, they also trend colder when showing extreme warmth.

[CIK62]

Putting the thoughts of it "torching us" aside, if one took a glance at the 12z GFS, the first thought would be that we are in a pretty good pattern rather than a pretty bad one, and DEFINITELY a not a torch by any stretch of the imagination. This GFS run, although of course will be changing each run, does not only not have a period of prolonged warmth but doesn't have warmth for more than a couple days. As we sometimes say that the models trend warmer when they show an extreme cold shot in the long range, they also trend colder when showing extreme warmth.

The 12Z GFS OP ends up below normal east of the Mississppi on the 500mb height anomaly while the GEFS is still above normal then, ie. 12/21or so.

[bluewave]

I think the euro ensembles day 12 - 15 onward are already pushing the higher heights north towards hudson bay and by week 3 the weeklies are north of there while it builds the trough underneath.

We totally miss the torch. A few days above but that's it .

This has been my argument since page 1. Mute torch has been my opinion and now and now I don't buy it at all.

 

That's a nice looking -EPO signal on the week three.

 

https://fox12weather.files.wordpress.com/2014/12/500za_week3_bg_na.png

[bigtenfan]

Wow. Has the mood of this board brightened in the past 24 hours. I just hope that it continues

[PB GFI]

That's a nice looking -EPO signal on the week three.

 

https://fox12weather.files.wordpress.com/2014/12/500za_week3_bg_na.png

Although we didn't snow. We dodged the torch bullet.

We do get 2 to 3 days of above the week after next as something prob runs to the lakes.

But then the trough will get pulled in and then it's a matter of how long we can lock off.

I would really have loved to b in the green and whites for next week's event.

Totals should be impressive .

[bluewave]

Although we didn't snow. We dodged the torch bullet.

We do get 2 to 3 days of above the week after next as something prob runs to the lakes.

But then the trough will get pulled in and then it's a matter of how long we can lock off.

I would really have loved to b in the green and whites for next week's event.

Totals should be impressive .

 

I will be happy if we can get at least some -EPO potential late month. That would up the chances of a small

or maybe moderate event like we saw last December (12-17-13) (12-14-13). All we need is a few nickel

and dime events to try and hit the December 4.8" average snowfall number in NYC. Average would be

great considering how much time we are losing to the +EPO in the middle of the month.

 

 

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/2013/us1217.php

 

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/2013/us1214.php

[PB GFI]

I will be happy if we can get at least some -EPO potential late month. That would up the chances of a small

or maybe moderate event like we saw last December (12-17-13) (12-14-13). All we need is a few nickel

and dime events to try and hit the December 4.8" average snowfall number in NYC. Average would be

great considering how much time we are losing to the +EPO in the middle of the month.

 

 

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/2013/us1217.php

 

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/2013/us1214.php

Day 15 already there. Trough into Europe high heights onto the west shore of Hudson bay towards greenland with the trough underneath.

That trough will b deeper and cutting underneath on the EC on the 20th . That usually invites trouble.

[MJO812]

GFS says winter begins on the 20th. -EPO trying to develop.

[Dsnowx53]

Strong signal on the GEFS for a -EPO, +PNA, with the lowest heights near the Aleutians. 

 

Nice Aleutian low with a cool-ish pattern on December 18th. (Images are not saved so they will look different this time tomorrow). 

 

http://synoptic.envsci.rutgers.edu/dougsimo/GEFSNHEM500mb06300.gif

 

 

 

Then the PNA and EPO signals really become strong after that.

 

http://synoptic.envsci.rutgers.edu/dougsimo/GEFSNHEM500mb06348.gif

 

 

 

 

http://synoptic.envsci.rutgers.edu/dougsimo/GEFSNHEM500mb06384.gif

 

[bluewave]

Day 15 already there. Trough into Europe high heights onto the west shore of Hudson bay towards greenland with the trough underneath.

That trough will b deeper and cutting underneath on the EC on the 20th . That usually invites trouble.

 

The trough in the Northeast has been the one constant since October and the EPO phase has been modulating the amount 

of cold available. I guess that's probably why a much stronger trough will verify next week than the 6-10 day means were

indicating. It's just that the +EPO this week will limit the cold air available for the storm. But we'll probably have a least

a shot at some type of frozen event with a more -EPO later in the month.

 

 

[PB GFI]

The trough in the Northeast has been the one constant since October and the EPO phase has been modulating the amount 

of cold available. I guess that's probably why a much stronger trough will verify next week than the 6-10 day means were

indicating. It's just that the +EPO this week will limit the cold air available for the storm. But we'll probably have a least

a shot at some type of frozen event with a more -EPO later in the month.

 

OCT.png

 

NOV.png

Hey mate. We look to snap above N from the 14 thru the 17th. Then another trough slips back through then watch the ensembles push those heights north into Hudson bay and by the 20th . By this the PNA is Pos that blocking is working it's way over the top. There's a deep trough in Europe and the southern jet is cutting underneath .

And there will be a deeper trough on the east as we get to the 21st.

Xmas week is my time frame to watch for. I really love the look of the ensemble evolution past day 13 for us

[Dsnowx53]

Hey mate. We look to snap above N from the 14 thru the 17th. Then another trough slips back through then watch the ensembles push those heights north into Hudson bay and by the 20th . By this the PNA is Pos that blocking is working it's way over the top. There's a deep trough in Europe and the southern jet is cutting underneath .

And there will be a deeper trough on the east as we get to the 21st.

Xmas week is my time frame to watch for. I really love the look of the ensemble evolution past day 13 for us

 

 

Agreed Paul.

 

I'm not sure about the higher heights working into Hudson Bay yet; but given the advanced lead time on an ensemble mean still showing a greatly amplified -EPO and +PNA...if that verifies more amplified than a smoothed ensemble mean, you could sneak some higher heights towards the NAO region to help make things interesting. I still don't think we get true NAO blocking until January, though. 

[PB GFI]

Agreed Paul.

 

I'm not sure about the higher heights working into Hudson Bay yet; but given the advanced lead time on an ensemble mean still showing a greatly amplified -EPO and +PNA...if that verifies more amplified than a smoothed ensemble mean, you could sneak some higher heights towards the NAO region to help make things interesting. I still don't think we get true NAO blocking until January, though.

Yeh the real blocking should come at end of the curve jan and Feb for us .

I am willing to work with a Pos PNA and a Trough on the EC.

Just need a shortening of the wave lengths and maybe we put some points on the board . I look for the mid point of that height field on the ensembles and look Hudson bay ish to me . Maybe that can force something underneath.

Without real blocking it's def hard to keep the cold air on air the coast but something well timed gives me a chance

snow or not this is beginning of what I think our starting point

[bluewave]

Hey mate. We look to snap above N from the 14 thru the 17th. Then another trough slips back through then watch the ensembles push those heights north into Hudson bay and by the 20th . By this the PNA is Pos that blocking is working it's way over the top. There's a deep trough in Europe and the southern jet is cutting underneath .

And there will be a deeper trough on the east as we get to the 21st.

Xmas week is my time frame to watch for. I really love the look of the ensemble evolution past day 13 for us

 

Yeah, it looks like that will be the transition period to a more favorable pattern. We may have to be patient

since Canada is going to really warm over the next 10 days. So it may be the beginning of a cooling off pattern

until some of the cold building over Siberia can cross the pole into North America. Probably stale cold

at first before we can get more Arctic air to work with. So the initial winter threats may favor interior

sections for better frozen potential until the Arctic air can become established. But we could easily

see some snow potential to the coast.

[PB GFI]

Yeah, it looks like that will be the transition period to a more favorable pattern. We may have to be patient

since Canada is going to really warm over the next 10 days. So it may be the beginning of a cooling off pattern

until some of the cold building over Siberia can cross the pole into North America. Probably stale cold

at first before we can get more Arctic air to work with. So the initial winter threats may favor interior

sections for better frozen potential until the Arctic air can become established. But we could easily

see some snow potential to the coast.

The warmth in Manitoba is about 5 days max . Yeh its prob 2- 3 SD above normal there , but those anomalies don`t seem to translate E. That said I like 3 days of above here . We have to remember many thought it was 15 days , then that got shave to 10 and now its prob 5 MAX . I like 3 .

But what a mute . I take that as such a positive as to where the winter may be telling us what to look for down the road .

Careful with warning signals in the LR on EC this year once the neg EPO returns .

[SnoSki14]

It's definitely going to take some work but I'm hopeful things are completed by Xmas. I think it'll take a bit a longer for the cold to drain in here than by 12/20 as shown on the gfs OP and yes a lot of that has to do with cooling Canada off as well as shutting off the Pacific influence.

[Stormlover74]

It's definitely going to take some work but I'm hopeful things are completed by Xmas. I think it'll take a bit a longer for the cold to drain in here than by 12/20 as shown on the gfs OP and yes a lot of that has to do with cooling Canada off as well as shutting off the Pacific influence.

Good idea to temper expectations..a pattern change does not mean we'll see snow or even threats of snow..it also doesn't mean it won't warm up or flip back. Don't misinterpret this to mean cold and snow for the next two months is assured

[alwaysready126]

Good idea to temper expectations..a pattern change does not mean we'll see snow or even threats of snow..it also doesn't mean it won't warm up or flip back. Don't misinterpret this to mean cold and snow for the next two months is assured

The upcoming pattern change with a Probable negative ao, heights in the Atlantic -west of Greenland, weak El nino and lrc patterns spell big time snows for the trip state. Even the most bullish snow forecasts will fall short of actual snow totals. Take a look at the pattern...storm after storm.

[Snowshack]

The warmth in Manitoba is about 5 days max . Yeh its prob 2- 3 SD above normal there , but those anomalies don`t seem to translate E. That said I like 3 days of above here . We have to remember many thought it was 15 days , then that got shave to 10 and now its prob 5 MAX . I like 3 .

But what a mute . I take that as such a positive as to where the winter may be telling us what to look for down the road .

Careful with warning signals in the LR on EC this year once the neg EPO returns .

We saw that last year as well.  Good call with the muted duration of the EC warm up...now lets see how quickly we can get into real arctic air.

[NEG NAO]

The upcoming pattern change with a Probable negative ao, heights in the Atlantic -west of Greenland, weak El nino and lrc patterns spell big time snows for the trip state. Even the most bullish snow forecasts will fall short of actual snow totals. Take a look at the pattern...storm after storm.

there is no guarantee of that 

[MJO812]

Tellies

 

Most of the members now have the AO going negative by mid December

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.sprd2.gif

 

Most of the members are trending downward with the NAO by mid month

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.sprd2.gif

 

PNA is staying positive

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/pna.shtml

[PB GFI]

It would be a little too bullish if one thinks it`s going to be an outright wire to wire jail break . One should assume a step down and see how that goes .

[thunderbolt]

Mjo is not looking that hot the European model has it going into the circle death and then heading towards stage four

[NEG NAO]

Mjo is not looking that hot the European model has it going into the circle death and then heading towards stage four

we have had some of our biggest snowstorms in the metro with the MJO in the COD and the Boxing Day Blizzard of 2010 the MJO was right on the edge of the COD and phase 5

 

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/

 

The Blizzard of 96 MJO was in the COD

 

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/

[alwaysready126]

there is no guarantee of that 

As close to a guarantee as you are ever going to get.  LRC says we get an EC storm just before xmas eve and then another just before New Years and then there are more.....

 

As mentioned above, that kind of pattern and favorable telles spell great chances of big snow.

[Stormlover74]

As close to a guarantee as you are ever going to get. LRC says we get an EC storm just before xmas eve and then another just before New Years and then there are more.....

As mentioned above, that kind of pattern and favorable telles spell great chances of big snow.

Sorry but there are no guarantees. If we get one good (3-6") snowstorm consider it a win