nj2va Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 Guess it depends on one's location?! I was looking at 900s and 925s in particular on Instantweathermaps. Without looking at the full sounding, it didn't look pretty at first glance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 See post above yours LOL! You mean about parts of New England getting smoked on this run? Seriously though, yes, right after I sent mine I saw Bob's "uniform 33-35 by 1PM" comment. My access to the panels is running s-l-o-w, so kind of relying on some of the play-by-play too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 That's usually a given isn't it? Yes it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 I was looking at 900s and 925s in particular on Instantweathermaps. Without looking at the full sounding, it didn't look pretty at first glance. I see...makes sense, thanks. There's a lot of subtlety here, to be honest, given how tricky the BL is for most of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 Around .9-1.0" through 95. Less west. You don't have to go far east for 1.3". GFS may be doing it's usual qpf max east. All in all it's not a terrible run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 xbox is a wet torch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 GFS is colder than most other models in raw form though I'm not sure that means a lot. Usually the raw sfc numbers are too cold in my experience.. though that wasn't the case in Mar of last yr I do recall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 When the Low is due east of the Bay, the 850mb 0C isotherm is warmer... eta: not by much though I didn't realize 0C is warmer than it used to be! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 it's just too close to expect any of the models to be as precise as we need them to be under the circumstances iow, it's luck which one verifies the best Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 LOL! You mean about parts of New England getting smoked on this run? Seriously though, yes, right after I sent mine I saw Bob's "uniform 33-35 by 1PM" comment. My access to the panels is running s-l-o-w, so kind of relying on some of the play-by-play too. I was just looking at the 850 line. ...looked a little further south. I won't take time to look at other levels...I know somebody else will do that...lol....I'm still waiting on Yoda to boost spirits with a detailed analysis of the RGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 Pretty nice vv look at 15z. Would be heavy rates of whatever around the cities during that time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 I was just looking at the 850 line. ...looked a little further south. I won't take time to look at other levels...I know somebody else will do that...lol....I'm still waiting on Yoda to boost spirits with a detailed analysis of the RGEM Yes, that and the Ukie! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 I didn't realize 0C is warmer than it used to be! I saw that coming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 GFS is colder than most other models in raw form though I'm not sure that means a lot. Usually the raw sfc numbers are too cold in my experience.. though that wasn't the case in Mar of last yr I do recall. there is a noticeable warm nose for us at 18z at ~925....it is pretty much all rain until maybe 2-3pm at which time precip is pretty much over...not that the GFS matters much, esp at this point... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 GFS is colder than most other models in raw form though I'm not sure that means a lot. Usually the raw sfc numbers are too cold in my experience.. though that wasn't the case in Mar of last yr I do recall. You and I had this discussion a couple of times last year...my recollection is that the raw numbers were pretty good on most events last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 there is a noticeable warm nose for us at 18z at ~925....it is pretty much all rain until maybe 2-3pm at which time precip is pretty much over...not that the GFS matters much, esp at this point... yep, track is tight to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 I don't like the look of the 925 zero line...at least compared to earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 00z RGEM drops 24mm of precip when you combine the 15z and 18z totals at DCA... deformation band must be sick if that is right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 I saw that coming Yeah, sorry, couldn't resist the obvious comment there! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 I'm kinda excited my g/f is in CT. She has already promised to measure snow and send pics. Almost as good. This time of year is always especially cruel having lived on a hill at 1300 feet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 00z RGEM drops 24mm of precip when you combine the 15z and 18z totals at DCA... deformation band must be sick if that is right it's wet as heck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 yep, track is tight to the coast. I don't like the look of the 925 zero line...at least compared to earlier. lol....0z GFS at 18z - Silver Spring Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 You and I had this discussion a couple of times last year...my recollection is that the raw numbers were pretty good on most events last year. I'm talking overall not just events. Last yr had a lot of hard cold infiltration events too. This is anomalously cold for the time of yr but not crazy impressive cold or storm/cold coupling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 I'm kinda excited my g/f is in CT. She has already promised to measure snow and send pics. Almost as good. This time of year is always especially cruel having lived on a hill at 1300 feet. can you post one of those maps in our area of the NAM and RGEM ....and then I'd like an omelet with ham and swiss can you handle that for me young fella'? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 lol....0z GFS at 18z - Silver Spring lolz.png Bleah... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 lol....0z GFS at 18z - Silver Spring Yeah I went right to the 925/900 maps on Instantweathermaps and didn't like what I saw. Though, I'd side with the mesoscale models at this range for the temp profile. Para was warm though too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 can you post one of those maps in our area of the NAM and RGEM ....and then I'd like an omelet with ham and swiss can you handle that for me young fella'? Not sure wxbell has the rgem. NAM HI RES NAM H TRIPLE R RAP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 I think we should be a little more specific with references to particular model maps. GFS guidance over the last couple runs actually lines up well imo. The following image links are for the 18Z time frame tomorrow that all seem supported by their similar runs with minor subtleties. Operational 18Z GFS 850mb: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/18/gfs_namer_024_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif Para 18Z GFS 850mb: http://mageval.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/18/gfs_namer_024_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif Operational 0Z GFS 850mb: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/00/gfs_namer_018_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif Para GFS 0Z 850mb: http://mageval.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/00/gfs_namer_018_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 Here's the RGEM snow map Ian/Mitch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 26, 2014 Share Posted November 26, 2014 Where is that link? The layout there is atrocious lol. He recently changed up the front page and I can't find the regional views of the GFS anymore either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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