CAPE Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Your last sentence is what I think is least likely. Too far east would be most likely IMO. You may be right. But in that case then I would expect a mainly rain event. It will probably take elevation to get any decent snow out of this, as it looks right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 day 4 Euro off Plymouth has a bunch of moisture to our south with winds coming from the right direction I'll be surprised if it goes completely off the coast, but bigger surprises have been had from these models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 96hr EURO -1 to -3 850s for LWX region... 1008 off of GA/SC coast by about 100 miles or so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Snowing hard @ 102 with -3 850's and surface temps just over freezing 95 and west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 It's a metro crush job by 108. 998 off of OC and dumping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 It's a metro crush job by 108. 998 off of OC and dumping. when the guys in the NE forum said it was warm and I knew the Low position at 96 hrs, I figured it had our names written all over it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Woah 108... deepening quickly and becomes 982mb offf of BOS at 120... slammed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLPressure Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 998 low 100 miles due east of Va lower eastern shore. 850's -4 Surface still above freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 when the guys in the NE forum said it was warm and I knew the Low position at 96 hrs, I figured it had our names written all over it sorry for making you faint but... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 sorry for making you faint but... weeniesfaint.GIF I suspect C.A.P.E.'s interest will suddenly peak lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Well...maybe it's time to take it a little more seriously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Raw surface temps are between 32-34 through the heavy rates and then go below freezing as it shuts off. It would stick no problem. 10-1 ratios unlikely but it would be a major accumulating snowfall if the euro has it right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Well...maybe it's time to take it a little more seriously. the only thing about that snowfall map that looks bogus is that Carroll County isn't the jackpot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 I suspect C.A.P.E.'s interest will suddenly peak lol lol well I am going to be in Reisterstown for the holiday which is the area where I expect it would snow if its gonna happen. Still be surprised if areas on the coastal plain get slammed. But who knows, stranger things have happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 If this solution holds through Monday 12z then wake me up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Well...maybe it's time to take it a little more seriously. I think so. Verbatim, the EURO's sfc temps are a bit too warm for accumulation, but I assume models don't handle precipitation-induced temperature decline very well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 the only thing about that snowfall map that looks bogus is that Carroll County isn't the jackpot You can thank WxBell's flawed snow algorithm for that mistake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Well...maybe it's time to take it a little more seriously. Agree... but I want to see what the EURO ensembles are like first before jumping on board halfway on... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Raw surface temps are between 32-34 through the heavy rates and then go below freezing as it shuts off. It would stick no problem. 10-1 ratios unlikely but it would be a major accumulating snowfall if the euro has it right. even if it ends up being a rain storm, to have that kind of slp crawling up the coast in late Novie during a warming NINO makes me think this winter will be lots of fun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 even if it ends up being a rain storm, to have that kind of slp crawling up the coast in late Novie during a warming NINO makes me think this winter will be lots of fun All guidance has midlevels cold enough during the period. The only real flaw is surface. But a storm like this would easily stick even @ 35-36 at the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 You can thank WxBell's flawed snow algorithm for that mistake.Anyone get QPF maps of the ECMWF ? That might be more helpful than the clown snow maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Anyone get QPF maps of the ECMWF ? That might be more helpful than the clown snow maps. Euro shows all snow @ 10-1 so 1-1.3 through the 95 corridor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Euro shows all snow @ 10-1 so 1-1.3 through the 95 corridor.Gotcha. Thanks, Bob. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solo2 Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 ALL IN! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 i'm going to be sick. Jesus...there is no way I can be in SC and watch this. I've never missed a snowstorm. I'm already thinking of ways to get out of the one annual big family gathering. I'm mentally f*cked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 I am hoping that at least half of the EURO ensembles have the storm looking something like this... it would be a tad disappointing if the OP was on its own IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Between 1-7pm wed .6-.7 qpf falls through the metros and burbs. Verbatim that would be 6 hours of low vis heavy snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 Between 1-7pm wed .6-.7 qpf falls through the metros and burbs. Verbatim that would be 6 hours of low vis heavy snow. Stop it. I'm already feeling so sick to my stomach. Dude, this is a sickness. I am seriously contemplating bailing on my family for Thanksgiving. I need to be slapped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 GEFS are still mostly OTS, although more members are Euro-like at 12z then were at 6z. ~4 give us significant precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 22, 2014 Share Posted November 22, 2014 I am hoping that at least half of the EURO ensembles have the storm looking something like this... it would be a tad disappointing if the OP was on its own IMO Half of the 0z ens members supported an event with impact. A quarter or so showed a pretty big event. We'll see how it looks in a couple hours. My guess is more come on board. It's been a steady increase each run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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