moneypitmike Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 Interesting timing for tomorrow. I'm not sure when the temp's supposed to rise above freezing, but if there's enough qpf before it does, perhaps a delay in the hill-towns. I doubt that will be the case, but it wouldn't surprise me. We're the largest school district in the state encompassing 250+ square miles (that's a lot of miles for a high school graduating class of 74) Given the nature of roads out here it wouldn't completely surprise me. Of course if it doesn't get cooler, we won't have any ice at all. 32.9/23 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 There's a reason there's a real dearth of good snow events in November in a good chunk of New England...esp the first 2-3 weeks of the month. It's tough to get good shortwaves to amplify south enough and east enough to get a real solid event. Big overrunning events are tough with the lack of deep snow cover to the north to really help hold the low level cold dome south to combat the still very warm waters to our south. Natural baroclinic zone is further NW...there's multiple factors working against us this time of the year. Most of our events are little weak clippers...or they are marginal slop weak events like we saw on 11/2 and then again last week. Every once in a while you roll snake eyes and get a 11/7/12 type event or a 11/11/87 event, but there's a reason those events that drop 6"+ are like once or twice per decade...maybe 3 times in SNE depending on location. We get lots of cold shots in November on NW flow, but the cold has a real hard time holding in for storms due to the above factors already mentioned. A -10C 850mb airmass in mid-November is not the same as one in January as it pertains to storms...because the dynamics of CAD and baroclinicity are just not the same yet as mid-winter. It does start getting a bit easier the final week of the month where more 6"+ events start dotting the climo historical charts, but even then, it's still silly to actually expect it...and I preach this as an ORH hills native where it's easier than much of the rest of the region to get November snow events of significance. That said, we still have a shot late next week for something, so it's certainly worth watching. But I'd keep expectations low for now. This is a great post dude. Makes sense why larger events (even Advisory level) are harder to come by, despite the winter-like temperatures we can get in November. Good background info into the disconnect between November bringing winter-like temps at times but generally failing to snow. Even up here, the mountain can average below freezing temps a lot of the month but still snowfall seems to lag a bit behind the cold. All the snow is usually meso-scale as it seems like pulling teeth to get a synoptic snow event in November. Probably due to like you said not being able to dig and amplify SE of here. Most of our November snow is meso-scale...probably more so percentage wise than any other cold season month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 Just got back to Greenfield and saw that it got down to 18F this morning in my hood. Impressive. Chris--did that low happen in the wee hours? I took a drive by you up Green River into Lyden and Colrain. The car was reading 23-24 the entire drive. My temp here at the Pit had gone down to 21 at 3:00a.m., but it had climbed up to 23-24 when I woke at 5:00. I figure that must have been with the clouds moved in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 patience is a virtue. Good things are worth waiting for.Late fall snow is a bonus in my mind winter starts on December 1st. This winter is going to deliver. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 Nice post ORH, translation, patience grasshoppers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 The natural baroclinic zone concept this time of year is pretty interesting from a stand point that you can drill like near -20C air at H85 to NNE in a arctic shot, but then that air can vacate just as quickly when a storm approaches. It can be raining like 12 hours later. But like Will said, you get that same airmass in January and a developing low wants to go no where near that cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 Interesting timing for tomorrow. I'm not sure when the temp's supposed to rise above freezing, but if there's enough qpf before it does, perhaps a delay in the hill-towns. I doubt that will be the case, but it wouldn't surprise me. We're the largest school district in the state encompassing 250+ square miles (that's a lot of miles for a high school graduating class of 74) Given the nature of roads out here it wouldn't completely surprise me. Of course if it doesn't get cooler, we won't have any ice at all. 32.9/23 Looks like you get your coveted qpf though.......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 37.0/25 right now. Wondering if I will start as a bit of IP followed by a couple of hours of ZR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 The natural baroclinic zone concept this time of year is pretty interesting from a stand point that you can drill like near -20C air at H85 to NNE in a arctic shot, but then that air can vacate just as quickly when a storm approaches. It can be raining like 12 hours later. But like Will said, you get that same airmass in January and a developing low wants to go no where near that cold. Things can amplify so easily too in November. Add on the fact that the cold has the staying power as Kevin's hair...and it makes it tough. You really need a good pattern to time out perfectly to get a snow event down here. People think inland is great for snow and sure it's better, but guess where the source region is for the air to rise up the isentropes and produce precip. Yep, where the waters are 60+. So for front enders, that's gonna be a tough task unless the airmass is super cold ahead of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 16, 2014 Share Posted November 16, 2014 So since none answers my question about Friday..I'll ask another..where is the low track tomorrow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 So since none answers my question about Friday..I'll ask another..where is the low track tomorrow? Central NY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 So since none answers my question about Friday..I'll ask another..where is the low track tomorrow? Probably near or just east of you to just SE of KGAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 Just saw the euro ensembles. Not bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 Probably near or just east of you to just SE of KGAY.Hopeful to get into the damaging winds for a time,, though NAM shifted track way east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 Would be nice to be on the Tug Hill in NY this week with 2-4 foot accums in the persistent bands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 Wxmeddler tweeted this out off a NAM sounding in Buffalo for epic LES, Superadiabatic lapse rate to 850mb. -30ub/s VV at 850mb. 1900 j/kg lake CAPE. Mixing to tropopause. WOW. #nywx http://t.co/iGxuF5egk1 From Mr. Tom Niziol from TWC: OK Geeks, here is an update with today's 12z GFS. This is the 12z GFS BUFKIT data. BUFKIT was orginally developed to allow operational forecasters to evaluate the atmosphere at point locations on an hourly basis. It is an excellent tool for convection as well as lake-effect snow. It was also developed before high resolution numerical modelling was available in the mainstream. So we developed a number of tools to help us evaluate the instability over the lakes (lake-induced CAPE and EL) and wind direction. Below you will see the GFS 12z run for Buffalo, NY. The top image shows the lake-induced CAPE (white and left y-axis) and EL (yellow and right y-axis). The bottom image shows the average wind direction from about 950mb through 700mb. The blue horizontal bar denotes a range of wind directions (~245-255 degrees) that line a band up over parts of metro Buffalo. The first image helps us to evaluate instability, the second shows where snow bands could set up. Buffalo looks like it will get its fair share of lake effect. Most will likely fall just south of the city as usual. Off Lake Ontario a similar scenario will play out. Of course, the Upper Great lakes will also get their fair share. I would watch SW Lower Michigan, I think they will get hammered !! This is just through Weds at 1pm, more significant LES follows this. I live in the Bullseye! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 From Mr. Tom Niziol from TWC: OK Geeks, here is an update with today's 12z GFS. This is the 12z GFS BUFKIT data. BUFKIT was orginally developed to allow operational forecasters to evaluate the atmosphere at point locations on an hourly basis. It is an excellent tool for convection as well as lake-effect snow. It was also developed before high resolution numerical modelling was available in the mainstream. So we developed a number of tools to help us evaluate the instability over the lakes (lake-induced CAPE and EL) and wind direction. Below you will see the GFS 12z run for Buffalo, NY. The top image shows the lake-induced CAPE (white and left y-axis) and EL (yellow and right y-axis). The bottom image shows the average wind direction from about 950mb through 700mb. The blue horizontal bar denotes a range of wind directions (~245-255 degrees) that line a band up over parts of metro Buffalo. The first image helps us to evaluate instability, the second shows where snow bands could set up. Buffalo looks like it will get its fair share of lake effect. Most will likely fall just south of the city as usual. Off Lake Ontario a similar scenario will play out. Of course, the Upper Great lakes will also get their fair share. I would watch SW Lower Michigan, I think they will get hammered !! This is just through Weds evening, more significant LES follows this. I live in the Bullseye! Nice. I had posted the forecast of where I used to spend time with my ex and her family--right in the jackpot zone you have there in Lewis County. Get out the sleds! Beauty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 Euro has +12 at 850 on Tuesday before Thanksgiving. Shorts and flip flops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 Chris--did that low happen in the wee hours? I took a drive by you up Green River into Lyden and Colrain. The car was reading 23-24 the entire drive. My temp here at the Pit had gone down to 21 at 3:00a.m., but it had climbed up to 23-24 when I woke at 5:00. I figure that must have been with the clouds moved in. It was actually around 4am. Been sitting at 34/27 for almost 2 hours here so hopefully we can drop a bit before precip moves in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 I'd rather this than the feebly-worded WWA I have in place. NYZ006>008-170815-/O.CON.KBUF.LE.W.0011.141118T0000Z-141119T2000Z//O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0018.141117T0500Z-141118T0000Z/OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OSWEGO...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE715 PM EST SUN NOV 16 2014...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHTTONIGHT TO 7 PM EST MONDAY......LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM MONDAY TO3 PM EST WEDNESDAY...* LOCATIONS...EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION.* TIMING...MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.* HAZARDS...A GENERAL LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. SOME SLEET MAY MIX IN DURING THE DAY MONDAY. VERY HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MAINLY FROM THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN TUG HILL REGION TO WATERTOWN AND FORT DRUM.* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATING AN INCH OR LESS OVERNIGHT AND 3 TO 5 INCHES MONDAY IN THE GENERAL SNOW AND SLEET. LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 FEET IN THE MOST PERSISTENT BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.* WINDS...SOUTHWEST 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH PRODUCING SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW AND NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AT TIMES.* VISIBILITIES...AS LOW AS A HALF MILE AT TIMES IN THE GENERAL SNOW LATER TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. NEAR ZERO AT TIMES LATER MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW.* IMPACTS...THE GENERAL SNOWFALL WILL RESULT IN SNOW COVERED AND SLIPPERY ROADS. THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE WILL BE VERY SLIPPERY AND SLOW. INTENSE LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW LATER MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN VERY DIFFICULT TRAVEL AT TIMES. SOME ROADS MAY BECOME NEARLY IMPASSABLE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 Euro has +12 at 850 on Tuesday before Thanksgiving. Shorts and flip flops. Hairy arms out truck windows on Mt Tolland? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 Nice. I had posted the forecast of where I used to spend time with my ex and her family--right in the jackpot zone you have there in Lewis County. Get out the sleds! Beauty Yeah the Tug receives more than double the snowfall I receive here. This is shaping up to be an historic LES snowstorm here. Wonder where it will fall on my lists of top LES storms. Really sucks I have to drive 21 miles a day to and from work for training this week instead of the normal 3 mile commute. If the thruway shuts down maybe they will pay me to stay at home. One can dream! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 Enjoy man that is the stuff dreams are made of!! Congrats!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 Enjoy man that is the stuff dreams are made of!! Congrats!! Thanks! If anyone ever wants to go Lake Effect chasing let me know. I am always down around this area. I've never chased in the Tug yet, but a friend of mine has. I am actually scared of going up there. The amount of snow they receive and the rates is ridiculous at times. You may go up there and never return. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 It was actually around 4am. Been sitting at 34/27 for almost 2 hours here so hopefully we can drop a bit before precip moves in. When the clouds moved in, the temps must have climbed. I've been sitting at 33/23 since late afternoon--not expecting for much of anything, but we should see a little something before it all washes away. Euro has +12 at 850 on Tuesday before Thanksgiving. Shorts and flip flops. I had said to my wife that at least if we have any warm days, it'll be helpful for getting Christmas lights up. We don't turn them on until closer to Christmas, but better to have them in place rather than trying to do so in frigid conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 Winter Storm Watch URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI247 PM EST SUN NOV 16 2014MIZ066-072-073-170400-/O.NEW.KGRR.WS.A.0005.141117T2100Z-141119T0300Z/EATON-KALAMAZOO-CALHOUN-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CHARLOTTE...KALAMAZOO...BATTLE CREEK247 PM EST SUN NOV 16 2014...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGHTUESDAY EVENING...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GRAND RAPIDS HAS ISSUED A WINTERSTORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGHTUESDAY EVENING.HAZARDOUS WEATHER...* LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES BEGINNING LATEMONDAY AFTERNOON. SNOWFALL RATES IN EXCESS OF AN INCH PER HOURIN THE STRONGER BANDS COULD OCCUR* WEST WINDS WILL GUST OVER 25 MPH LEADING TO BLOWING SNOW* FALLING TEMPERATURES MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT* NEAR ZERO WIND CHILLS BY TUESDAY MORNINGIMPACTS...* DANGEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS DEVELOPING FOR THE MONDAY EVENINGCOMMUTE AND PERSISTING THROUGH TUESDAY WITH WHITEOUTCONDITIONS AT TIMES.* FALLING TEMPERATURES WILL ENHANCE THE IMPACTS TO THE ROADS* HIGHWAY CLOSURES COULD OCCUR DUE TO MULTIPLE VEHICLE PILEUPS * LOCAL TRAVEL IMPACTS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND THROUGHMONDAY MORNING DUE TO ONGOING SNOW SHOWERS.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...* AT THIS TIME...HAZARDOUS WINTER WEATHER IS POSSIBLE BUT NOTIMMINENT. TRAVEL CONDITIONS MAY DETERIORATE QUICKLY IFHAZARDOUS WINTER WEATHER DOES OCCUR...SO IT IS IMPORTANT TOMONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.* WEATHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON LINE ATWWW.READY.GOV/WINTER AND HTTP://GO.USA.GOV/5OG.&&$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 Thankfully we don't live at 850 mb on Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 Yeah the Tug receives more than double the snowfall I receive here. This is shaping up to be an historic LES snowstorm here. Wonder where it will fall on my lists of top LES storms. Really sucks I have to drive 21 miles a day to and from work for training this week instead of the normal 3 mile commute. If the thruway shuts down maybe they will pay me to stay at home. One can dream! That's a great area. The place they have is direct lakefront on Brantingham. Boating in the summer, great conditions for winter enthusiasts. Not bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 Thankfully we don't live at 850 mb on Tuesday. LOL. It could well be a warmish couple days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 Thankfully we don't live at 850 mb on Tuesday. No, we live below and warmer luckily. Just take it like a man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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