Possible late season severe outbreak morning of 10/8/14

[Ginx snewx]

150 it was not. Probably closer to 100.

bark strips at 134, but the 100 number is too low, we will never know

[CoastalWx]

bark strips at 134, but the 100 number is too low, we will never know

 

Trees standing makes 150 pretty much impossible.

[weatherwiz]

Wiz it was a situation where a larger scale outbreak could have occurred, it underperformed. We don't do severe well unfortunately

 

Honestly though...I don't think anything screamed large scale outbreak...in order to achieve large scale outbreaks you need so many factors in place and everything to come together nearly perfect...you can get away with not having the perfect setup but in this part of the country it's incredibly rare.  

 

What we had for us was an incredibly sheared environment...no doubting that...and we had models indicating the potential for instability values high enough to where robust enough updrafts would occur.  Instability was always a question...both with regards to where the highest values would occur and how high capes would be.  

 

When you're dealing with shear values as strong as what we had you have to have enough thermodynamics to work with...there is no magical number but you need to have enough in place to counter-balance the shear.  Then you also need ingredients in place for updrafts to sustain themselves so they can mature and really utilize what is present aloft.  

 

IMO we didn't have enough in place to really think widespread severe or an outbreak...all we were present with was enough data to where the entire region had some favorable parameters but there were so many questions with these parameters...you just can't have that many questions and expect big severe.  

 

I will say though...we actually had steep lapse rates which I thought would compensate but I think the issue here was those steep lapse rates were just a bit too high and updrafts still had issues penetrating high enough to utilize everything.  

[CoastalWx]

Actually the Hollis NH micro was estimated at 110mph. That's LOL compared to this.

[bobbutts]

True story, I got college credit for skiing at Mt. Tom in the mid 90's.

[bobbutts]

Hurricanes have winds that last over a much longer period of time and come from multiple angles. One would have to expect that similar damage in a microburst would mean higher wind speeds.  If I had to estimate I'd agree with 130-150.

[weatherwiz]

Hurricanes have winds that last over a much longer period of time and come from multiple angles. One would have to expect that similar damage in a microburst would mean higher wind speeds.  If I had to estimate I'd agree with 130-150.

 

I was going to say...when it comes to winds and damage...it also really depends on the longevity of the strongest winds...if you have 100 mph winds lasting like 3 seconds vs. 10 seconds...that's going to factor into how much damage occurs.  

[CoastalWx]

There is a lot that goes into wind speeds, but 150 will leave nothing behind really..esp pine and hardwood. Highly doubt it was that strong. Could have been 100-120 or so.

[weatherwiz]

There is a lot that goes into wind speeds, but 150 will leave nothing behind really..esp pine and hardwood. Highly doubt it was that strong. Could have been 100-120 or so.

 

Seems more reasonable...150 would have been much more substantial.  In fact, 150 would have came not too far away from the strongest wind speeds for a microburst on record.  

[CoastalWx]

I agree with Ryan too. Based on what we were talking about with a rear inflow jet like feature in these cells...that's probably what it was. You can see it had a backwards C shape with a comma head like feature. The cell seemed to weaken too. So two things could have happened. That LLJ combined with a cell collapse was one hell of an exhalation, or those strong winds decided they had nowhere to go but down because of a sustained updraft still. Not a surprise this occurred on southern end of mid level MCV with strong mid level negatively tilted trough with anomalous LLJ ramming into it. You get some crazy sh*t when that happens.

[weatherwiz]

I agree with Ryan too. Based on what we were talking about with a rear inflow jet like feature in these cells...that's probably what it was. You can see it had a backwards C shape with a comma head like feature. The cell seemed to weaken too. So two things could have happened. That LLJ combined with a cell collapse was one hell of an exhalation, or those strong winds decided they had nowhere to go but down because of a sustained updraft still. Not a surprise this occurred on southern end of mid level MCV with strong mid level negatively tilted trough with anomalous LLJ ramming into it. You get some crazy sh*t when that happens.

 

That all makes complete sense really.  In these setups you often look to where your LLJ max is and lots occurred on the the lines.  That's what makes these setups so hard to forecast b/c you won't where that will happen until it literally is going to happen...I guess though perhaps with enough research into these cases there might be something that tells us this ahead of time.  

So in this case it's not about being in the area of high cape but being in an area of "higher capes" and near the nose of the jet max.  

[Ginx snewx]

True story, I got college credit for skiing at Mt. Tom in the mid 90's.

Lol did you go to a Keane?

[Ginx snewx]

Man I would have loved to just hear that downburst. Must have been like an explosion

[dryslot]

Man I would have loved to just hear that downburst. Must have been like we an explosion

 

Was in one in Naples Maine back in the early 2000's Thought it was a TOR at first, Eerie to say the least as i hit the deck in the building we were in

[CoastalWx]

Man I would have loved to just hear that downburst. Must have been like an explosion

My mom was in a dept store back in the Brockton '96 one. The whole building made a creaking and shaking sound as the roof started to peel. Of course they thought tornado at first.

[powderfreak]

True story, I got college credit for skiing at Mt. Tom in the mid 90's.

Nice! lol

[powderfreak]

Man I would have loved to just hear that downburst. Must have been like an explosion

Yeah it would be awesome...isn't there a car on that road blocked between trees in that drone footage? If that guy was there when it hit he probably soiled himself and had to change the undies before going into work.

[Damage In Tolland]

Trees standing makes 150 pretty much impossible.

There were no trees left standing..Not 1

[CoastalWx]

There were no trees left standing..Not 1

 

Yeah there were.

[Ginx snewx]

Yeah it would be awesome...isn't there a car on that road blocked between trees in that drone footage? If that guy was there when it hit he probably soiled himself and had to change the undies before going into work.

I want to hear his/her story

[OceanStWx]

There is a lot that goes into wind speeds, but 150 will leave nothing behind really..esp pine and hardwood. Highly doubt it was that strong. Could have been 100-120 or so.

 

Nobody is ever satisfied with a storm survey, almost always thinking the winds were stronger. So few people have any real concept of how strong 100 mph winds are. Most people would soil themselves at 60 mph.

 

Yes, a synoptic or tropical windstorm is a long duration wind event that stresses trees, but a microburst essentially goes from zero wind to 100 mph in seconds which is a whole different kind of stress that often results in many snapped trunks.

 

Plus we're not talking about debarked trees or just stubs left, so based on the EF Scale you would be hard pressed to increase to 130+. Snapped pine trunks are expected 104 mph. And true story, meteorologists make terrible dendrologists so we know very little about how resistant these particular stands of trees were to wind.

[OceanStWx]

I want to hear his/her story

 

That was the first thing I noticed. That guy was there since 4:50 AM!

[CoastalWx]

Nobody is ever satisfied with a storm survey, almost always thinking the winds were stronger. So few people have any real concept of how strong 100 mph winds are. Most people would soil themselves at 60 mph.

 

Yes, a synoptic or tropical windstorm is a long duration wind event that stresses trees, but a microburst essentially goes from zero wind to 100 mph in seconds which is a whole different kind of stress that often results in many snapped trunks.

 

Plus we're not talking about debarked trees or just stubs left, so based on the EF Scale you would be hard pressed to increase to 130+. Snapped pine trunks are expected 104 mph. And true story, meteorologists make terrible dendrologists so we know very little about how resistant these particular stands of trees were to wind.

 Yeah exactly. A constant sustained stress vs violent gusts make a big difference. Plus growth of tree, width, diseased, are most branches towards the crown..etc. Tons of uncertainty, but I think people would be surprised to see how bad trees are damaged even in 60-80mph winds.

[CT Rain]

 Yeah exactly. A constant sustained stress vs violent gusts make a big difference. Plus growth of tree, width, diseased, are most branches towards the crown..etc. Tons of uncertainty, but I think people would be surprised to see how bad trees are damaged even in 60-80mph winds.

 

I just think it's so silly to try to assign wind velocities to damage. Who cares? It's so hard to do and the error bars are so high we'd probably just better off leaving the classifications more broad. 

 

For tornadoes... weak/strong/violent etc. 

[CoastalWx]

I just think it's so silly to try to assign wind velocities to damage. Who cares? It's so hard to do and the error bars are so high we'd probably just better off leaving the classifications more broad. 

 

For tornadoes... weak/strong/violent etc. 

 

There is definitely a lot of uncertainty. One thing is for sure, that was a hell of a microburst yesterday in Easthampton. 100 is a lock for that one.

[CT Rain]

There is definitely a lot of uncertainty. One thing is for sure, that was a hell of a microburst yesterday in Easthampton. 100 is a lock for that one.

 

Yeah absolutely. The drone video is just nuts. 

[Baroclinic Zone]

I just think it's so silly to try to assign wind velocities to damage. Who cares? It's so hard to do and the error bars are so high we'd probably just better off leaving the classifications more broad. 

 

For tornadoes... weak/strong/violent etc. 

 

 

This is actually pretty good reasoning.   

[OceanStWx]

This is actually pretty good reasoning.   

 

The cool thing about the EF Scale (that drives many people nuts) is that it's a moving target. It is constantly being improved upon, and one of the major initiatives is to include more science in the tree damage indicators. Elms differ in strength from oaks, and white pine from fir, etc. It isn't as cut and dry and hardwood/softwood.

 

Likewise, we're always finding new damage indicators to include.

[eekuasepinniW]

 Snapped pine trunks are expected 104 mph. And true story, meteorologists make terrible dendrologists so we know very little about how resistant these particular stands of trees were to wind.

Do you happen to know what species of pine that number was based on?  

 

White pines are amazing... they can take a lot of wind if it comes from the dominant direction, but if comes from the opposite direction, they shed branches as if they were only held on by velcro.

 

I vividly remember hurricane bob had a couple random gusts from the east (probably 40mph?) that stripped probably a 1/3rd of the limbs off of one pine at the end of a clump.   Same group of pines was unbothered by my 55mph gust a few years ago.  (82.5MPH in BCI units)

[CoastalWx]

I notice that too, Eek. Trees used to the NE and Srly gales take a ton of stress with ease. Put that same wind inland and down they'll go. Some of the more exposed white pines actually have the tree shaped in the direction of prevailing winds. For instance you'll see trees sort of tail off to the north and northeast along the SNE south coast due to prevailing year round winds.