dilly84 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 21z sref has a mean for around me and Steve and vespian at 7.51" with 6 members over 8" The mean for CMH is 6.44" so a tad higher east of CMH. It's got my attention. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 21z sref has a mean for around me and Steve and vespian at 7.51" with 6 members over 8" The mean for CMH is 6.44" so a tad higher east of CMH. It's got my attention. I don't know much about the sref members. I know they have something to do with the nam. My question is how typical is it to have such a huge difference between the Nam and the sref mean 24 hrs out? Nam is not budging from 1" along i-70. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoachLB Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Old Chris Bradley going 2-4 for CMH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Old Chris Bradley going 2-4 for CMH Ben gelber 1" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 I don't know much about the sref members. I know they have something to do with the nam. My question is how typical is it to have such a huge difference between the Nam and the sref mean 24 hrs out? Nam is not budging from 1" along i-70. The SREFs are basically the NAM's ensemble members... Usually, they're crap just like the NAM (and typically play "follow the leader" with the OP NAM). They do strike gold every now and then though (such as with the north trend for the Superbowl snowstorm). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 The SREFs are basically the NAM's ensemble members... Ok.....but why is, for example, the mean 6.4" but the is Nam 1"? Is that kind of spread between an op and an ens that normal? 24 hours out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Ok.....but why is, for example, the mean 6.4" but the is Nam 1"? Is that kind of spread between an op and an ens that normal? 24 hours out? http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/fplumes/index.php?YMD=20150215&RT=21&PRM=Total-SNO&SID=CMH&INC=ALL&NNC=&max=&min=&mZOOM=7&mLAT=40.06520116208008&mLON=-84.89689952955246&mTYP=roadmap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Ok.....but why is, for example, the mean 6.4" but the is Nam 1"? Is that kind of spread between an op and an ens that normal? 24 hours out? It only has 1 member under 2" for CMH 6 members between 4" and 6" and 8 members over 6" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Ok.....but why is, for example, the mean 6.4" but the is Nam 1"? Is that kind of spread between an op and an ens that normal? 24 hours out? As odd as it seems, it happens. Sometimes, the Hi-Res models (that in theory tend to pick up on the minute details in the atmosphere global models miss) can be the first to sniff out a storm that's going to deepen more rapidly than expected, and of course this can adjust everything further NW (which is still a possibility, although a small one). Another perfect example of this I can remember, beside the Superbowl snowstorm, is GHD 2011. Of course, you must consider we're talking about the NAM and its ensemble members also (not the most reliable set of models). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Have to disagree, buckeye. The NAM bumped north a bit with the 3-4" totals now at I-70. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Have to disagree, buckeye. The NAM bumped north a bit with the 3-4" totals now at I-70.Yeah, I would think NAM must have come north a little based on Chris Bradley bumping up to 2-4 for CMH area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 I'm going off the amwx model graphics. I can't post them here. But yes, maybe they're too conservative with output Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nokywx Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Feeling good about 6-10, here 15 miles south of Cincy...I really could see ratios helping us get to the top end of that range. Probably will be the best storm here since Dec 2004. March '08 was about 12", but all melted within about 36 hours. Much more staying power with this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Ok.....but why is, for example, the mean 6.4" but the is Nam 1"? Is that kind of spread between an op and an ens that normal? 24 hours out? There are three "families" of models in the SREF. The ARW core (which is not what the op NAM is based on) family seems to be going the highest with the NMM (I believe the NAM is closer to this one) are going lower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Also I know these are the "clown" maps but I like the ratio algorithm. Seems to usually work pretty well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Wow the models really shifted a lot lot lot for Kentucky, in terms of impacts. A suprise 8" is a major deal for those south of the Ohio River. They don't have enough plow trucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 I saw the forecast now is 10-18" on TV. Haven't really followed it much but wow that'll paralyze the state Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Well, another day, another miss. No radar hallucinations, this thing is moving directly east. I-70 will be lucky to get half an inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Almost comical watching the radar. It's literally like hitting a brink wall at the Ohio border trying it's damndest to not let any moisture into Ohio lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Then the Euro comes with a 144-168 slap. Will the pain ever end? Nope. Southern states are going to finish the year with higher snow. EURO is dead on with this. It will warm up long enough for an inch of rain then back to brutal cold. I think I'm on the verge of being done for the winter. Don't know how much more of it I can take this year. The only saving grace is that the GFS is showing a decent snow for all of Ohio in that same timeframe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Final call is 4-8 down here (probably 6-7 IMBY Northeast Cincy) and 1-2 in Cbus with 3" south side of Franklin co possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Well, another day, another miss. No radar hallucinations, this thing is moving directly east. I-70 will be lucky to get half an inch. radar is doing pretty much what the short term models have been showing....snow not suppose to reach here until between 1 and 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Then the Euro comes with a 144-168 slap. Will the pain ever end? lol...I can't remember, but when the euro shows a low cutting nw of us 6-7 days out, what's the 2014-2015 conversion factor for the actual track again? btw, for what little it's worth mentioning, the ens mean has the low on the OHWV border Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 ILN just upped our neighboring counties to the south from advisories to wsw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 this is kind of interesting.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JasonOH Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 I would say that the counties 1 north of the advisories should keep their heads up for a surprise. This could still pull a 20 mile shift and put 3 inches on the ground in places w/o warning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Guys, let's start using the main storm thread for this..... Hoosier asked if we would do that. I think it's a good idea Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Posted February 16, 2015 Author Share Posted February 16, 2015 Guys, let's start using the main storm thread for this..... Hoosier asked if we would do that. I think it's a good idea ??..Why...were usually treated as 2nd class citizens over there!! I have no problem with this..but it seems like when you post there..some not all.. act like your stupid for even posting!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JasonOH Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 All the northern posters wont be there because this storm is missing them. It will still basically be the same guys as on here, with the addition of a few from IN and KY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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