buckeye Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 a lot of jacked up GEFS yea...it was showing a lot of cutters with the last storm too. gonna rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 I done made my call. I'm actually putting out a map later on showing potential low tracks for my FB followers. As of now I like the low tracking through KY to WV. Believe it or not without having my leg pulled too much I actually am optimistic about this one.. Can't think of too many years where literally everyone had a big snow but IND-CMH so I believe this is our 6"+ event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 yea...it was showing a lot of cutters with the last storm too. gonna rain LMFAO!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 I done made my call. I'm actually putting out a map later on showing potential low tracks for my FB followers. As of now I like the low tracking through KY to WV. Believe it or not without having my leg pulled too much I actually am optimistic about this one.. Can't think of too many years where literally everyone had a big snow but IND-CMH so I believe this is our 6"+ event. Are you being serious or just playing overly optimistic right now at the request of Buckeye? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 this one is gonna suck like the last two. We knew it too with the last one, go back and read our thoughts around Feb10,11...many here knew this was gonna screw us except I was stupid and didn't believe you. You all told me..... ...it was going to amp and go north like the early Feb storm. by the way, 4 days out, Feb12th, was when the south trend started, and we were all like . and it kept going and we were all like and kept going and never came back enough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherzen Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Hard to argue against suckage the way this winter has gone, but odds are one of these has to hit us, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Are you being serious or just playing overly optimistic right now at the request of Buckeye? A little of both lol. But I am optimistic in this one. If this goes north of us, you can forget the north and south trends cause there is only one trend at that point. The trend to screw Central Ohio lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 A little of both lol. But I am optimistic in this one. If this goes north of us, you can forget the north and south trends cause there is only one trend at that point. The trend to screw Central Ohio lolNo doubt! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Starting to actually get some decent model agreement and some sense of run to run consistency too. I think this looks like a snow/sleet slop fest to plain rain thanks to strong WAA. How much snow and sleet we start with is the big question but a good dose of cold rain is appearing more likely for the main part of the precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 If we've learned anything this winter it's to not take any model seriously until inside of 48 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Starting to actually get some decent model agreement and some sense of run to run consistency too. I think this looks like a snow/sleet slop fest to plain rain thanks to strong WAA. How much snow and sleet we start with is the big question but a good dose of cold rain is appearing more likely for the main part of the precip. I truly hope you're just kidding and being debbie downer like Buckeye, Mike. If not this may be a candidate for the most ridiculous post of 2015 lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 If we've learned anything this winter it's to not take any model seriously until inside of 48 hours. With exact tract, sure. We do know, however, that it will not hit I-70.. at least not with snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 With exact tract, sure. We do know, however, that it will not hit I-70.. at least not with snow. No, sorry, we don't know that. It's not like there's some winter long pattern that is preventing us from hitting snow. It's just bad luck on timing. The only differences in the SB storm, the one yesterday, and the one being modeled later is timing. That comes down to blind luck. To say otherwise is more sour grapes than science. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 ILN forecasting 1"-3" tonight and tomorrow morning ... we may get more out of this than yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 No, sorry, we don't know that. It's not like there's some winter long pattern that is preventing us from hitting snow. It's just bad luck on timing. The only differences in the SB storm, the one yesterday, and the one being modeled later is timing. That comes down to blind luck. To say otherwise is more sour grapes than science. I'm basing it on climo combined with performance so far. Sure, there's nothing to say we absolutely can't be hit, but there's nothing to say we will be, either. Edit: 0z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 I'm basing it on climo combined with performance so far. Sure, there's nothing to say we absolutely can't be hit, but there's nothing to say we will be, either. Edit: 0z GFS This winter it's almost the kiss of death to be in the bullseye 4+ days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 I'm basing it on climo combined with performance so far. Sure, there's nothing to say we absolutely can't be hit, but there's nothing to say we will be, either. Edit: 0z GFS 0z gem is a massive hit For i70. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 not likely if the trough goes negative tilt. Well forgive me if I'm not fully buying into any solution as of yet. I was simply stating what the model showed. Gfs was a rain storm gem was snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 0z gem is a massive hit For i70. Looks too far north of I-70 in Ohio. Euro is warm and wet along with the GFS. We can kiss this one good bye Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Looks too far north of I-70 in Ohio. Euro is warm and wet along with the GFS. We can kiss this one good bye Not going to write it off 4 to 5 days out. I'll wait til at least 12z Friday. I'm still optimistic about this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Overachiever alert.... Getting better snow now than on Monday! Morning commute is a disaster!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Posted February 18, 2015 Author Share Posted February 18, 2015 How ironic would it be that we get 10 below zero Friday morning and rain Saturday or Sunday ..I guess that would be normal for us ...I hope this does not happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Overachiever alert.... Getting better snow now than on Monday! Morning commute is a disaster!!! Most models showed southern Ohio getting 2-3". Actually looks crappy to me. Getting sheared apart as it moves across ohio. Was organized now it's just a torn up mess in pieces. Congrats though. Maybe you'll hit top end 3". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Looks too far north of I-70 in Ohio. Euro is warm and wet along with the GFS. We can kiss this one good bye I'm sure there were some lining up at the cliff's edge last night after the 00z runs came in. But when I see a jump like that in the models 4-5 days out, whatever direction, it's usually a B.S. red flag. Sure enough the 6z gfs came off it's high, and instead of a 1003 low to eastern IN, we have a weak POS low in KY. I'm still not convinced that this is going north. Let's get this shot of cold in here later today and tomorrow....probably the most severe cold shot, relative to the time of the season, that we've seen in the last two years. Once that airmass is in place and realized and the energy coming in is better sampled, we'll have a much better idea of what's going to happen....and that's probably another 36-48 hrs out. Could it still amp up and rain? sure Could this turn into a frontal passage with a negligible wave? sure But laying a claim on one of those solutions now is pure guessing, and luck if you end up being right. Ok...back to being DD....it's gonna fcking rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cincy12 Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Over performer this morning 3-4 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Woke up and see a new coating and it's lightly snowing. Perhaps we can pull off that 1"-2" ILN forcasted? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 BTW, congrats to the Cincy crowd, you guys deserve it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Over performer this morning 3-4 inches .01" here. Don't look like it'll turn into too much up this way. You guys should have about 8" on the ground then. Must be nice. I'm currently sitting at <1" lol. Just hasn't been a good winter across I70 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 we've got enough snow on the ground to cover the grass completely. However much that is, 2" . Nice light snow falling now. CMH should crack 20" today on the season if they haven't already. I think we have a solid chance to hit our seasonal average this year. Barring a major event, this winter will get filed away in the 'winters we won't ever remember' file.... as the vast majority usually do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 we've got enough snow on the ground to cover the grass completely. However much that is, 2" . Nice light snow falling now. Same here. Maybe we can add another inch this morning? Radar doesn't look too awful and it's supposed to pivot NE a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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