dendrite Posted October 5, 2014 Share Posted October 5, 2014 Michael Ventrice @MJVentrice 1h 1 hour ago Unseasonably warm Halloween for eastern states? ECMWF weekly forecast on board with possible pattern flip late Oct. Oh well. Maybe next winter will be better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 5, 2014 Share Posted October 5, 2014 Well aside from the fact that Hazel was a strong cane that moved into the mid atlantic and thru PA..and produced snow on it's backside..surecongrats,when do DIT watches come out, brief spin ups possible? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted October 5, 2014 Share Posted October 5, 2014 Looks a lot like the pattern going into Nov 2009 & 1958. Both happened to be -QBO/Nino-esque TF winters with adequate MQI (QBO stage). Both were also in long term +AMO/-PDO phases: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 5, 2014 Share Posted October 5, 2014 Michael Ventrice @MJVentrice 1h 1 hour ago Unseasonably warm Halloween for eastern states? ECMWF weekly forecast on board with possible pattern flip late Oct. You can comfortably dress up like the mermaid you always wanted to be this Halloween. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 5, 2014 Share Posted October 5, 2014 Looks a lot like the pattern going into Nov 2009 & 1958. Both happened to be -QBO/Nino-esque TF winters with adequate MQI (QBO stage). Both were also in long term +AMO/-PDO phases: Not good winter ensued Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 5, 2014 Share Posted October 5, 2014 Interesting how this week keeps getting cooler every run. The daily change in model 5h as they initialize the effect downstream of recurving typhoons is apparent as you look back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 5, 2014 Share Posted October 5, 2014 Pretty cold in the MA this morning. Congrats IAD for being colder than most of SNE so far this season with a low of 33F.MVY>IAD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 5, 2014 Share Posted October 5, 2014 Not good winter ensuedWho around here wouldn't take their chances with another 09-10? Yes, the NAO was off the charts negative, but if we had something slightly less anomalous we probably would've been buried. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 5, 2014 Share Posted October 5, 2014 Congrats picnic table on MT Mansfield first flakes recorded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 5, 2014 Share Posted October 5, 2014 Congrats picnic table on MT Mansfield first flakes recorded. Kind of cool how if you follow the elevations that saw flakes with this trough, they steadily increased from west to east as the cold air modified. Chicago area, parts of the plains at 500-1000ft...then into western PA/western NY hills but more like 1,500-2,500ft SE of BUF...then by the time it hit New England the snow level rose to 4,000ft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapturedNature Posted October 5, 2014 Share Posted October 5, 2014 Ended with .57 here 0.64" here and 0.66" at Staffordville. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 5, 2014 Share Posted October 5, 2014 Anniversary of the devastating early October snow bomb in 1987...hard to believe that 2011 happened, but then to think that this one happened over 3 weeks *earlier* in the season is crazy. http://www.erh.noaa.gov/aly/Past/1987_Oct/Oct_4_1987.htm An unprecedented early season snow storm occurred on October 4th, 1987. Three inches up to about 2 feet of extremely wet snow fell across eastern New York and western New England resulting in many deaths and injuries and an enormous amount property damage. There were widespread power outages. The trees still had their leaves which was a major contributing factor to the number of trees and limbs that came down taking out power lines. Snow to liquid ratios were as low as 3.5 to 1 (Kenneth D. LaPenta, 1988). The hardest hit counties were Dutchess, Ulster and Columbia counties where the power was out in some areas for nearly two weeks (Storm Data, NCDC). Albany, Columbia, Rensselaer, Dutchess, Greene and Montgomery counties were declared disaster areas (Storm Data, NCDC). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 5, 2014 Share Posted October 5, 2014 Anniversary of the devastating early October snow bomb in 1987...hard to believe that 2011 happened, but then to think that this one happened over 3 weeks *earlier* in the season is crazy. http://www.erh.noaa.gov/aly/Past/1987_Oct/Oct_4_1987.htm An unprecedented early season snow storm occurred on October 4th, 1987. Three inches up to about 2 feet of extremely wet snow fell across eastern New York and western New England resulting in many deaths and injuries and an enormous amount property damage. There were widespread power outages. The trees still had their leaves which was a major contributing factor to the number of trees and limbs that came down taking out power lines. Snow to liquid ratios were as low as 3.5 to 1 (Kenneth D. LaPenta, 1988). The hardest hit counties were Dutchess, Ulster and Columbia counties where the power was out in some areas for nearly two weeks (Storm Data, NCDC). Albany, Columbia, Rensselaer, Dutchess, Greene and Montgomery counties were declared disaster areas (Storm Data, NCDC). Yeah...we talked about it a couple pages back. It's definitely more anomalous than 2011. It's hard enough to even get 850s down to 0C this time of year...nevermind heavy snows to the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 5, 2014 Share Posted October 5, 2014 God if that happened today, ABC's head would explode. It already sounds like the world is ending every night when you listen to them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapturedNature Posted October 5, 2014 Share Posted October 5, 2014 Yeah...we talked about it a couple pages back. It's definitely more anomalous than 2011. It's hard enough to even get 850s down to 0C this time of year...nevermind heavy snows to the surface. The other amazing thing was it fell on the heels of 4/28/1987 making it one the shortest window between snowfalls. The 80s had some crappy winters but events like these kept the interest up...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapturedNature Posted October 5, 2014 Share Posted October 5, 2014 God if that happened today, ABC's head would explode. It already sounds like the world is ending every night when you listen to them. Some year we're going to a hurricane I think I'll just have to turn off the TV for a few months. I can't imagine what it would be like if we started a 1938-1960 stretch. Thankfully I don't have cable or satellite anymore but the OTA channels can be bad enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted October 5, 2014 Share Posted October 5, 2014 Next weekend looks interesting for NNE. Sharpen the trough some more and flakes fly in ME. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 5, 2014 Share Posted October 5, 2014 Who around here wouldn't take their chances with another 09-10? Yes, the NAO was off the charts negative, but if we had something slightly less anomalous we probably would've been buried. Without that highly anomalous -NAO we would have certainly been crushed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 5, 2014 Share Posted October 5, 2014 Kevin's marathon looks chilly as we get closer. So much for lamenting d10 operational progs..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 5, 2014 Share Posted October 5, 2014 Kevin's marathon looks chilly as we get closer. So much for lamenting d10 operational progs.....AWT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 5, 2014 Share Posted October 5, 2014 AWT Kind of comical watching the early bridge jumpers in the winter thread.....lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 5, 2014 Share Posted October 5, 2014 Kind of comical watching the early bridge jumpers in the winter thread.....lol. So far I see one. By the way, chucked a few at Coolidge corner yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted October 5, 2014 Share Posted October 5, 2014 Kind of comical watching the early bridge jumpers in the winter thread.....lol. I think people expect it too be 40 degrees with a cold outlook as soon as October hits. The big picture still looks fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 5, 2014 Share Posted October 5, 2014 100% pants-tentastic out there today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 5, 2014 Share Posted October 5, 2014 So far I see one. By the way, chucked a few at Coolidge corner yesterday. Where were you? I circled by a couple of times. Yesterday was a full day of introspection (personally and communally) but I was in the hood back and forth from home a few times. That digital thermo near trader joes is pretty accurate...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 5, 2014 Share Posted October 5, 2014 So far I see one. By the way, chucked a few at Coolidge corner yesterday. Well the one guy starting to think 2011-12 is the person I'm thinkng of most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 5, 2014 Share Posted October 5, 2014 Kevin's marathon looks chilly as we get closer. So much for lamenting d10 operational progs..... It looks wet and awful with that wave on the front Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 5, 2014 Share Posted October 5, 2014 It looks wet and awful with that wave on the front You won't have any heat problems so it should be safe...that's the important thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 5, 2014 Share Posted October 5, 2014 It looks wet and awful with that wave on the frontSunday? ? GFS is bone dry 40 degrees at 8 am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 5, 2014 Share Posted October 5, 2014 Sunday? ? GFS is bone dry 40 degrees at 8 am Cmc agrees and euro will probably follow suit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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