Ginx snewx Posted August 29, 2014 Share Posted August 29, 2014 Boring is good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 29, 2014 Share Posted August 29, 2014 Maple mauler for Duluth. They are probably sick of snow after last season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 29, 2014 Share Posted August 29, 2014 LOl Leon lives Mount Tavurvur is the most active volcano associated with the Rabaul caldera. It erupted along with nearby Mount Vulcan in 1994 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted August 29, 2014 Share Posted August 29, 2014 They are probably sick of snow after last season Last of the snow melted on Cinco de Mayo. Long snow season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted August 29, 2014 Share Posted August 29, 2014 Some act as if some warmth in september is not a common thing, Who cares how warm it is, Just get some coastal's and cooler temps here into October and some 12/12 hrs of light................. As long as it's not a repeat of 1999 or 2002, and I see no signs of that level of heat. A run of 70s would make a nice homestretch for the garden. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted August 29, 2014 Share Posted August 29, 2014 As long as it's not a repeat of 1999 or 2002, and I see no signs of that level of heat. A run of 70s would make a nice homestretch for the garden. Nothing wrong with a 2002-03 winter repeat fwiw. Toss 99...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 30, 2014 Share Posted August 30, 2014 Jerry '02/'03 seriously is special in its own way. It didnt have 100", but snow from October-April. What a weenie period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted August 30, 2014 Share Posted August 30, 2014 Jerry ' 02/'03 seriously is special in it's own way. It didnt have 100", but snow from October-April. What a weenie period. Ji cancelled winter only to get destroyed a month later in PD2...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 30, 2014 Share Posted August 30, 2014 Ji cancelled winter only to get destroyed a month later in PD2...lol. Some things never change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted August 30, 2014 Share Posted August 30, 2014 Nothing wrong with a 2002-03 winter repeat fwiw. Toss 99...lol. Suppression city (77% of avg snowfall, 12th highest of 16 winters), though it was the coldest winter here until this past one and, due to the mid-Nov snowfall, had very long sustaining of snowpack, though only of modest depth. Lots better that 99-00, I agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 30, 2014 Share Posted August 30, 2014 WOW CapeCodWeather.Net @capecodweather 1h Large east coast ridge at end of upcoming week…This SUN to next SAT look above normal. In some cases, well above. pic.twitter.com/yWduDSifRV Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted August 30, 2014 Share Posted August 30, 2014 I'll save my "wow" for something more than a few days of 85-90. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 30, 2014 Share Posted August 30, 2014 Undoubtedly the story of model performance this year is overdoing ridge heights.perhaps they get it right this time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted August 30, 2014 Share Posted August 30, 2014 I'll save my "wow" for something more than a few days of 85-90. We'll see what his reaction is if that same type of ridge shows up in December, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 31, 2014 Share Posted August 31, 2014 My forecast high is now 80 tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 31, 2014 Share Posted August 31, 2014 Man..just an absolute torch of a week for us. Not the best way to start autumn..but what can you do LEAD COLDFRONT EXITING THE NORTHEAST WILL HAVE LITTLE AFFECT ONTEMPERATURES POST FROPA AS HEIGHTS BUILD ON THU/D4. WARMEST DAY INTHE EASTERN THIRD OF THE NATION WILL BE FRI/D5 WITH THE SFC HIGHOFF THE COAST AND THE COLD FRONT BACK THROUGH THE LAKES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 31, 2014 Share Posted August 31, 2014 Fall starts at the end of the month. It's only a real torch for two days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted August 31, 2014 Share Posted August 31, 2014 I am rooting for an AN September. Who wouldn't be, I don't understand that. It is a bug free month up here, and the chance to be out in the sun in 75-85 degree weather, with cool mornings and changing leaves, with no bugs, is a gift. Hello again everyone, I hope you have enjoyed summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 31, 2014 Share Posted August 31, 2014 Fall starts at the end of the month. It's only a real torch for two days.my forecast is low 80s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 31, 2014 Share Posted August 31, 2014 Fall starts at the end of the month. It's only a real torch for two days.my forecast is low 80s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 31, 2014 Share Posted August 31, 2014 I am rooting for an AN September. Who wouldn't be, I don't understand that. It is a bug free month up here, and the chance to be out in the sun in 75-85 degree weather, with cool mornings and changing leaves, with no bugs, is a gift. Hello again everyone, I hope you have enjoyed summer. yo Marky hope all is well. Yea I noticed this week when skimming the pool the lack of bugs,another reason September is my favorite non winter month, bring on the heat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted August 31, 2014 Share Posted August 31, 2014 Well the euro is pretty warm Fri/Sat too. The ens seem a bit faster with the front so Sat isn't too bad. We'll see. It's a nice cool down after that though. It's obviously lalaland, but that d10 system would be nice...40s/50s and rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 31, 2014 Share Posted August 31, 2014 Fall starts at the end of the month. It's only a real torch for two days. Nuh uh, Meteorological autumn begins tomorrow ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 31, 2014 Share Posted August 31, 2014 Nuh uh, Meteorological autumn begins tomorrow ... LOL..I know...but that's like saying June 1st should be 92/72 because it's the 1st day of met summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 31, 2014 Share Posted August 31, 2014 Well the euro is pretty warm Fri/Sat too. The ens seem a bit faster with the front so Sat isn't too bad. We'll see. It's a nice cool down after that though. It's obviously lalaland, but that d10 system would be nice...40s/50s and rain. That would have to be one helluva inverted ... or in the least straight up down vertical walled isothermal sounding for that... wow Not to mention that east wind off of near SST max seasonal waters transporting 60+DPs inland ... even if there was an iota of chance for that solution to verify (which their isn't beyond mere decimals) those environs/synoptics don't look 40's ... The Euro has a cold heights bias as we all know, beyond D6, anyway. It's so bad at times I sarcastically mutter to my self that ECMWF must know their product is a piece of sh!t beyond D5 so they just fudge it and throw corrective coefficients in there to bring the longer range depictions back from the schizoid brink. In other words, 'fake it'. So long as users are awed at it's D4 verifications, no one will notice the model's long range split personality/paranoid delusions with involuntary narcissistic rage... The literature on the evolution of that model I've seen mentions that they do indeed employ corrective schemes to smooth out emergent noise out in time. But in fairness, what does that mean exactly? I mean who's to say whether or not it's extended obsessive-compulsive depression disorder up in the NE US/SE Canada is merely endemic to our nook of the hemisphere. Maybe the Euro only does that in the OV/NE part of Earth ... some unavoidable emergent uncertainty for environmental parameterization causing enhanced fractal probabilities... That'd be some f'ed up luck, eh? I noticed last winter the Euro seemed to have a Nor'easter spun up on the EC more times then not per given extended (D7-10) outlook. I mean, if the model always has one on there, and we have a stormy winter, it's going to be right some 50% of the time for random D9s. Which then of course makes it look down right prescient as a prognostic weapon. Funny, total bullsh!t takes all the credit that way. But what's been taking place this summer obfuscates things a bit. We have had dual biases in play: one has been for models et al to over produce eastern ridging .. or in the least, pattern changes, only to collapse back to a persistence sort of ennui; the other has been for the Euro to drill troughs at the same time. So it's hard to tease the truth out of that confusion. By the way ... for those that bother employing the CMC model beyond it's 10 min outlooks ... it does the same thing even worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted August 31, 2014 Share Posted August 31, 2014 Man..just an absolute torch of a week for us. Not the best way to start autumn..but what can you do LEAD COLD FRONT EXITING THE NORTHEAST WILL HAVE LITTLE AFFECT ON TEMPERATURES POST FROPA AS HEIGHTS BUILD ON THU/D4. WARMEST DAY IN THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE NATION WILL BE FRI/D5 WITH THE SFC HIGH OFF THE COAST AND THE COLD FRONT BACK THROUGH THE LAKES. Damn...we may actually hit 80. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted August 31, 2014 Share Posted August 31, 2014 That would have to be one helluva inverted ... or in the least straight up down vertical walled isothermal sounding for that... wow Not to mention that east wind off of near SST max seasonal waters transporting 60+DPs inland ... even if there was an iota of chance for that solution to verify (which their isn't beyond mere decimals) those environs/synoptics don't look 40's ... Yeah...I'm not going to debate a d10 prog. Looked more like an overrunning system with some low level ageo drain though with 850s around +4C to +8C and pouring rain. Literally it had 2m temps in the 40s and 50s. I only posted about it for fun. It'll verify as 72F and SCT or something anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 31, 2014 Share Posted August 31, 2014 Yeah...I'm not going to debate a d10 prog. Looked more like an overrunning system with some low level ageo drain though with 850s around +4C to +8C and pouring rain. Literally it had 2m temps in the 40s and 50s. I only posted about it for fun. It'll verify as 72F and SCT or something anyways. Interesting... 2m temp products I do no have access to wrt to the Euro products, because I refuse to pay for a resource we don't really need .. ... but that's beside's the point. I suppose if it can snow 20" on an October 30, it can't be unheard of to drill a 45F on September 10. And that conclusion is quite obvious when we know that in May into early June, you can stagnate a coastal on-shore flow and drive the 50F isotherm clear to Springfield Mass and beyond. So yeah ..it's all moot and useless.. Mostly, I just wonder what is going on with the lack of TC activity. Yea, I guess it was supposed to be a weak season, but the reasons given for those outlooks haven't exactly verified with very much panache. El Nino is delayed, and the QBO is already abating having just slipped negative as of the end of July. Not only that, the Roundy Probabilities have been elevated for these last 7 days of August into the first 10 or so days of September, too. I am wondering if there is a negative anomaly in TW frequency, because it doesn't seem there's been a lot of eye-candy to begin with, either. Hmm. Not sure... but it seems on paper like the Basin is primed yet... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 31, 2014 Share Posted August 31, 2014 I say this as FWIW (probably not much) but the GEFS do have an area of low pressure well offshore day 10 as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted August 31, 2014 Share Posted August 31, 2014 The hyped hot September will be laughed at on 10/1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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