Stebo Posted September 4, 2014 Share Posted September 4, 2014 Yeah there is a strong MCV associated with that bow echo, I think at the very least it should maintain strength for the next couple hours, possibly turning more SE following the instability gradient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted September 4, 2014 Share Posted September 4, 2014 Currently the NWS forecasts 90 for Toledo tomorrow. There have been only 4 days of 90 degree temperatures in Toledo this summer. In my memory, these 4(or 5) days of 90+ would be about the minimum number of 90 degree days per year at Toledo. I am not 100% sure of that though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
josh_4184 Posted September 4, 2014 Share Posted September 4, 2014 N lake Michigan will kill them off like usual In most cases I would agree with you, but the Lake has warmed up quite a bit in the last couple weeks for Northern lake Michigan, I think this bow will hold together for a few more hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted September 4, 2014 Share Posted September 4, 2014 Currently the NWS forecasts 90 for Toledo tomorrow. There have been only 4 days of 90 degree temperatures in Toledo this summer. In my memory, these 4(or 5) days of 90+ would be about the minimum number of 90 degree days per year at Toledo. I am not 100% sure of that though. While its certainly well below normal, its not record breaking. 20 most # of 90F days at Toledo since 1873 44 - 1988 38 - 1955 38 - 2002 35 - 1953 34 - 1952 34 - 1995 33 - 1964 32 - 1934 32 - 2011 32 - 2012 30 - 1944 29 - 1936 29 - 1949 28 - 1931 27 - 1916 27 - 1933 27 - 1959 27 - 2005 26 - 1894 26 - 1999 20 least # of 90F days at Toledo since 1873 0 - 1907 1 - 1875 1 - 1877 1 - 1882 1 - 1915 2 - 1979 2 - 2000 3 - 1885 3 - 1992 4 - 1883 4 - 1889 4 - 1905 4 - 1909 4 - 1950 4 - 1958 4 - 1970 4 - 2014 5 - 1878 5 - 1909 5 - 1960 5 - 1975 5 - 1981 5 - 2009 Of course, like I did with Detroit, if you start the chart in 1916, it has a whole new look 2 - 1979 2 - 2000 3 - 1992 4 - 1950 4 - 1958 4 - 1970 4 - 2014 5 - 1960 5 - 1975 5 - 1981 5 - 2009 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted September 4, 2014 Share Posted September 4, 2014 comma head (supported by the well defined MCV) held strong but the bow was destroyed by the lake Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted September 4, 2014 Share Posted September 4, 2014 As expected I'll edit to add that it's still exciting to watch for these parts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted September 4, 2014 Share Posted September 4, 2014 While its certainly well below normal, its not record breaking. Of course, like I did with Detroit, if you start the chart in 1916, it has a whole new look 2 - 1979 2 - 2000 3 - 1992 4 - 1950 4 - 1958 4 - 1970 4 - 2014 5 - 1960 5 - 1975 5 - 1981 5 - 2009 I was just thinking of posting that 1992 and 2000 were the most likely to have a low number of 90's, and I was right. I know for sure that I didn't use my AC in July 2000 in SE Michigan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 4, 2014 Share Posted September 4, 2014 Looks like we have at least a 1-2% chance of hitting 90 tomorrow. 850 mb temps near 20C with pretty good mixing. Clouds/precip are a potential problem. Bottom line, gotta be skeptical about any setup that is not a slam dunk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted September 4, 2014 Share Posted September 4, 2014 Looks like we have at least a 1-2% chance of hitting 90 tomorrow. 850 mb temps near 20C with pretty good mixing. Clouds/precip are a potential problem. Bottom line, gotta be skeptical about any setup that is not a slam dunk. 1-2% chance Normally I make a half-assed attempt at jinxing it, but I almost feel bad for you...so I won't. Good luck tomorrow. Time is running out... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted September 4, 2014 Share Posted September 4, 2014 bam! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted September 4, 2014 Share Posted September 4, 2014 Temp shot up here in St. Paul. Currently 89/76. Oy. Bring on that graphic above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 4, 2014 Share Posted September 4, 2014 1-2% chance Normally I make a half-assed attempt at jinxing it, but I almost feel bad for you...so I won't. Good luck tomorrow. Time is running out... At least. Maybe as high as 3% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted September 4, 2014 Share Posted September 4, 2014 At least. Maybe as high as 3% Let's not get too crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 4, 2014 Share Posted September 4, 2014 Let's not get too crazy. IND going with 88 for us, mentioning clouds. Realistically, there's about 3-4 weeks left of 90 degree potential. Most of September's daily record highs are in the 90s though they tend to only be low 90s by the last week of the month. I think LAF has had 90s in October 5 times, probably a bit more at the COOP. Climo aside, it just kinda feels like it's not going to happen if we make it past tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spartman Posted September 4, 2014 Share Posted September 4, 2014 Temperature currently halted at 88, despite sunshine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted September 4, 2014 Share Posted September 4, 2014 an anafront like signature starting to show up for friday evening. could see nice totals across far southern LOT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted September 4, 2014 Share Posted September 4, 2014 Realistically, there's about 3-4 weeks left of 90 degree potential. Most of September's daily record highs are in the 90s though they tend to only be low 90s by the last week of the month. I think LAF has had 90s in October 5 times, probably a bit more at the COOP. Climo aside, it just kinda feels like it's not going to happen if we make it past tomorrow. Single digit percent chances of 90º+, once we get past September 13. Data is for IND (airport from 1943-2013). Used IND considering it has a consistent/good longterm record, unlike LAF. But, chances should be about the same for us all the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted September 4, 2014 Share Posted September 4, 2014 Making it into the 80s, but limited heating left with it being after 3:30 now. Very humid out though! Winds are turning off the lake north of the border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 4, 2014 Share Posted September 4, 2014 Single digit percent chances of 90º+, once we get past September 13. Data is for IND (airport from 1943-2013). Used IND considering it has a consistent/good longterm record, unlike LAF. But, chances should be about the same for us all the same. IND Sep-Oct 90º+ day %.png One of the more impressive ones for IND has to be 9/29/1953...97 degrees that day. The next highest temp recorded on that day? 88 in 1952 and 1986. Edit: wow, it was 96 degrees at 11 AM. Very dry airmass. http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KIND/1953/9/29/DailyHistory.html?req_city=Indianapolis+International&req_state=IN&req_statename=Indiana Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted September 4, 2014 Share Posted September 4, 2014 And of course, a line of t'storms (completely unexpected) have popped up to the west of here... Only made it to I think 87*F at DET and 86*F at DTW (I will have to double check)... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted September 4, 2014 Share Posted September 4, 2014 forgot to post this pic i took on Sept 2nd. Loved the clouds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted September 4, 2014 Share Posted September 4, 2014 0.81" from this morning's very unexpected storms. One of the crashes of thunder woke me out of a sound sleep and about grenaded my heart lol. Scared the living crap out of me. Lingering clouds through midday kept us from reaching our 5th 90+ of the year. Made it to 86. Dews have really come up though, and has made it to 75 at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted September 4, 2014 Share Posted September 4, 2014 mini train setting up across N WI into Door Co…same areas that got hit earlier this morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted September 4, 2014 Share Posted September 4, 2014 0.81" from this morning's very unexpected storms. One of the crashes of thunder woke me out of a sound sleep and about grenaded my heart lol. Scared the living crap out of me. Lingering clouds through midday kept us from reaching our 5th 90+ of the year. Made it to 86. Dews have really come up though, and has made it to 75 at the moment. Lol....that happen to me once about 6 or 7 years ago when our house got struck...from sound asleep to 5 seconds of panic. Dang near melted my cell that was on the charger too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted September 4, 2014 Share Posted September 4, 2014 Lots of CG with this line that is about on top of me here at KDTW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted September 4, 2014 Share Posted September 4, 2014 Lambeau Field would be a pretty soggy place to play football, if the Packers were at home today. GRB radar estimates 1" fell in Green Bay today. GRB airport got about 0.93" in 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted September 4, 2014 Share Posted September 4, 2014 So I pretty much got split by that line (other than very light rain/sprinkles). Got several rumbles of thunder though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted September 4, 2014 Share Posted September 4, 2014 Hit 83° before an east wind kicked in. 0.91" of rain this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted September 4, 2014 Share Posted September 4, 2014 83F./74F... greasy underpants around here. Last day with dews in the 70fs...bank it... summer done..over ... bring on the leaf change...going to be a good year unless all the leaves freeze solid in 8-10 days. Brother is bear hunting in Tomahawk, WI...said their hotel was flooded this morning and they lost power. The guy he is with (guy with the tag) shot at a big black bear (250+) and missed because he was shaking so bad (guy is scared of bears!)... good stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted September 4, 2014 Share Posted September 4, 2014 KDTW 042353Z 15003KT 9SM FEW035 SCT045 BKN080 23/21 A3002 RMK AO2 WSHFT 2240 TSE47RAE52 SLP162 OCNL LTGICCG DSNT SE CB DSNT SE TS MOV SE P0058 60058 T02280211 10306 20217 51001 Another half inch of rain in an hour here today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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