moneypitmike Posted August 8, 2014 Share Posted August 8, 2014 Interestingly, the temps come down a bit here this afternoon. The sun angle's dropped. 72.4/56 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 8, 2014 Share Posted August 8, 2014 That's a pretty potent setup next week on the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 8, 2014 Share Posted August 8, 2014 Same old song and dance on the euro op after a few runs that were trying to warm us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 8, 2014 Share Posted August 8, 2014 Couple things of note on the Euro. The Wed setup looks potentially tornadic with ULL to our NW and sharp digging trough. Then a day or 2 of cold pool storms Thurs-Fri. By day10 look at how torched it is up into Canada..extrapolated out ..it matches the GFS/GEFS for the end of the month with over the top heat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 8, 2014 Share Posted August 8, 2014 Couple things of note on the Euro. The Wed setup looks potentially tornadic with ULL to our NW and sharp digging trough. Then a day or 2 of cold pool storms Thurs-Fri. By day10 look at how torched it is up into Canada..extrapolated out ..it matches the GFS/GEFS for the end of the month with over the top heat Over the top warmth is really muted if we have a trough over the southeast though. It always is. I think you're thinking of one of those heat domes spilling down from Ontario..but those setups are a little different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 8, 2014 Share Posted August 8, 2014 Over the top warmth is really muted if we have a trough over the southeast though. It always is. I think you're thinking of one of those heat domes spilling down from Ontario..but those setups are a little different. Yeah but if you look at 850's on the Euro on day 10..you can see how the flow is WNW..so wouldn't that spill over the top thru the prarires and down into the Lakes and NE US? I don't see any -NAO or anything to shunt it south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 8, 2014 Share Posted August 8, 2014 Yeah but if you look at 850's on the Euro on day 10..you can see how the flow is WNW..so wouldn't that spill over the top thru the prarires and down into the Lakes and NE US? I don't see any -NAO or anything to shunt it south Yeah, but if you look at 500mb...you have lower heights kind of tucking in from New England out through the Plains and not going anywhere. I see what you are saying, but those real heat domes are usually when you have a trough in the rockies kicking out the heat over into western Ontario and then moving ESE. It is a warm pattern either way. A true Tip heat release would be the GFS op.Get a trough in the PAC NW to rip the heat east. GFS has been off and on with this...but I think the Pacific mess is probably going to cause some mayhem over the next 5-7 days. I do think the 20th and beyond could have a warm risk for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 8, 2014 Share Posted August 8, 2014 Yeah, but if you look at 500mb...you have lower heights kind of tucking in from New England out through the Plains and not going anywhere. I see what you are saying, but those real heat domes are usually when you have a trough in the rockies kicking out the heat over into western Ontario and then moving ESE. It is a warm pattern either way. A true Tip heat release would be the GFS op.Get a trough in the PAC NW to rip the heat east. GFS has been off and on with this...but I think the Pacific mess is probably going to cause some mayhem over the next 5-7 days. I do think the 20th and beyond could have a warm risk for sure. meanwhile in reality time frames Euro advertising +6 to +8 850s overhead, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 8, 2014 Share Posted August 8, 2014 Yeah, but if you look at 500mb...you have lower heights kind of tucking in from New England out through the Plains and not going anywhere. I see what you are saying, but those real heat domes are usually when you have a trough in the rockies kicking out the heat over into western Ontario and then moving ESE. It is a warm pattern either way. A true Tip heat release would be the GFS op.Get a trough in the PAC NW to rip the heat east. GFS has been off and on with this...but I think the Pacific mess is probably going to cause some mayhem over the next 5-7 days. I do think the 20th and beyond could have a warm risk for sure. Agreed ... and I'd also add that the op. GFS has attempted it's current 12z late middle/ext range concept several times this warm season ...failing miserably every time. I'd really like to see something other than a neutral PNAP/slightly negative NAO on the tele's, too. Although ...yeeeah, I guess if a given negative NAO is E-based with it's block, depending on tricky summer wave-spaces might mean pulling the westerlies into a STR configuration over the east...but that's way too detailed for this time range. 'Sides, the means aren't showing that anyway. I just think any meaningful positive departures (if that is what is intended presently) has dubious signals at best for the time being. We'll see where the means in the modelings evolve... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 8, 2014 Share Posted August 8, 2014 CapeCodWeather.Net @capecodweather 14m Pattern shift? ECMWF ensemble mean shows rising heights in the east and warmer than normal temps after day 10. pic.twitter.com/zkpvIByM65 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted August 8, 2014 Share Posted August 8, 2014 Long range doesn't look hot to me, AN sure....but nothing too serious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted August 8, 2014 Share Posted August 8, 2014 CapeCodWeather.Net @capecodweather 14m Pattern shift? ECMWF ensemble mean shows rising heights in the east and warmer than normal temps after day 10. pic.twitter.com/zkpvIByM65 Yeah...it's been advertising that for a few days now, but it hasn't made it inside of d10 yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 8, 2014 Share Posted August 8, 2014 Still reminds me a bit of a gradient pattern...the EC is pooling chilly air north of the Plains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 8, 2014 Share Posted August 8, 2014 Funny to talk about coastal flooding in August outside of a TC, but might have that Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 9, 2014 Share Posted August 9, 2014 Looks like the Euro is cut-off happy again next week. Always way too strong and overdoing the cut offs. How many times have we seen that? GFS couldn't be more different. Spilt the difference Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 9, 2014 Share Posted August 9, 2014 Wednesday is pretty much a nor'easter now. Been trending stronger with secondary south of SNE. After that, it's all business. Coolest airmass since June it appears. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted August 9, 2014 Share Posted August 9, 2014 Wednesday is pretty much a nor-easter now. Been trending stronger with secondary south of SNE. After that, it's all business. Coolest airmass since June it appears. Another excellent winter signal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 9, 2014 Share Posted August 9, 2014 As we discussed yesterday..TOR potential there on Wed as ULL goes to our NW with trop feed and dews and strong SSE flow @JoeDawg42: Svr potential Tue-Wed per @CIPSAnalogs. Pattern favors isol tor's w/tropical air & low closing off S Ontario. http://t.co/MhVJ8Lv0t4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 9, 2014 Share Posted August 9, 2014 As we discussed yesterday..TOR potential there on Wed as ULL goes to our NW with trop feed and dews and strong SSE flow @JoeDawg42: Svr potential Tue-Wed per @CIPSAnalogs. Pattern favors isol tor's w/tropical air & low closing off S Ontario. http://t.co/MhVJ8Lv0t4 Well these 12z runs limited that...but if it goes back to yesterday then maybe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 9, 2014 Share Posted August 9, 2014 As of now, it's more NYC-CC perhaps. Everyone else seems like more E-NE winds. A bit stable to the north, unlike yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 9, 2014 Share Posted August 9, 2014 Well these 12z runs limited that...but if it goes back to yesterday then maybe. He tweeted that recently/ As ling as ULL goes north threat is there for all of us . Dews will be near 70 even if E wind.. the fever TOR they were also north of w/f Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 9, 2014 Share Posted August 9, 2014 He tweeted that recently/ As ling as ULL goes north threat is there for all of us . Dews will be near 70 even if E wind.. the fever TOR they were also north of w/f Well as usual you disagree when it doesn't go your way...but that setup almost CAD the interior. It would be more along the low track which is closer to NYC to CC or SE MA. Yesterday looked better IMO. Perhaps it goes back to that. This is hardly a summer look with a high east of Maine. I do agree near the low track..it's a more classic look..but where does the low go? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 9, 2014 Share Posted August 9, 2014 Looks like the Euro is cut-off happy again next week. Always way too strong and overdoing the cut offs. How many times have we seen that? GFS couldn't be more different. Spilt the difference I dunno. Every operational model there is has a trough amplifying significantly enough that it makes no difference whether it cuts off or not. The GFS also agrees with the EC about a quasi-closed deep layer vortex at this point, anyway. I'm not observing enough modeled baroclinicity to focus cyclogen on the coast. We need to ease off the Noreaster stuff. It's more likely that front with a couple cyclonic nodes move up along it, enhancing rainfall and some thunder ... then we end up in a west wind advecting rotted GL summer-polar airmass. Probably pancake cu type of backside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 9, 2014 Share Posted August 9, 2014 Well as usual you disagree when it doesn't go your way...but that setup almost CAD the interior. It would be more along the low track which is closer to NYC to CC or SE MA. Yesterday looked better IMO. Perhaps it goes back to that. This is hardly a summer look with a high east of Maine. I do agree near the low track..it's a more classic look..but where does the low go? Due North up Tip's fanny? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 9, 2014 Share Posted August 9, 2014 Due North up Tip's fanny? Better for Tors..lol. I don't disagree that it's usually a setup for these high shear low CAPE deals..but JMHO...today's models with a secondary a bit further east weren't as favorable. Could it go back west...sure...lots of time left. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted August 9, 2014 Share Posted August 9, 2014 80/55 nice day out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 9, 2014 Share Posted August 9, 2014 On the hires, the low goes up from near PVD-BOS. Near and SE of that would be a any threat. Otherwise could be a good soaker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 9, 2014 Share Posted August 9, 2014 GFS and Euro are basically 25-35KT gusts over the cstl waters Wednesday. Not bad for Aug. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 9, 2014 Share Posted August 9, 2014 ULL will dictate. Id think we see this go pretty far NW in the end Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 9, 2014 Share Posted August 9, 2014 Similar ULL looks can have different MSLP looks though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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