Typhoon Tip Posted August 10, 2014 Share Posted August 10, 2014 Why the fuk does anyone lament warmth in September. Jesus H does everything have to be winter or summer? Yes it would seem, as years of smoldering obsession has clearly proven ha! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 10, 2014 Share Posted August 10, 2014 Working 2-10 during the best weekend of the year absolutely sucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted August 10, 2014 Share Posted August 10, 2014 Went for a walk, steamy in the sun 85/51. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 10, 2014 Share Posted August 10, 2014 Big time chill coming to the mtns late this week. Upslope showers and probably not out of the 60s in those spots like where PF is. Still looks like coolest airmass of the season will be arriving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 10, 2014 Share Posted August 10, 2014 Looks like models today get the warm front near the Pike. Wed could be fun . Heavy rains from Berks on N and severe threat south and east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andrewmac Posted August 10, 2014 Share Posted August 10, 2014 Playboy models? Which models? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 10, 2014 Share Posted August 10, 2014 Looks like models today get the warm front near the Pike. Wed could be fun . Heavy rains from Berks on N and severe threat south and east Yeah ticked NW. I guess the two red flags I see is the lack of low level CAPE, and mid level winds lacking a bit. Most of our high shear/low CAPE events did not feature such strong E-SE winds. Will that advect marine air in just enough to taint low levels? Maybe...maybe not. Of course low level shear is very strong and LCLs are low...but I'd like to see a tad more CAPE in the lower levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 10, 2014 Share Posted August 10, 2014 Yeah ticked NW. I guess the two red flags I see is the lack of low level CAPE, and mid level winds lacking a bit. Most of our high shear/low CAPE events did not feature such strong E-SE winds. Will that advect marine air in just enough to taint low levels? Maybe...maybe not. Of course low level shear is very strong and LCLs are low...but I'd like to see a tad more CAPE in the lower levels.Seems like as they continue to bump north hopefully the CApe comes with it. I personally don't think they're done coming north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted August 10, 2014 Share Posted August 10, 2014 Playboy models? Which models?Doesn't matter which. Just pick the one that shows the outcome you like Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 10, 2014 Share Posted August 10, 2014 Seems like as they continue to bump north hopefully the CApe comes with it. I personally don't think they're done coming north I do...I don't see this going any farther than it is...in fact I think it could go back to more SE MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 10, 2014 Share Posted August 10, 2014 I think w/f gets up to Nh/Mass border Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andrewmac Posted August 10, 2014 Share Posted August 10, 2014 Doesn't matter which. Just pick the one that shows the outcome you like I think I will fit in here just fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 10, 2014 Share Posted August 10, 2014 Doesn't matter which. Just pick the one that shows the outcome you like Some are very good at that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 10, 2014 Share Posted August 10, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 10, 2014 Share Posted August 10, 2014 EC is a little more interesting taking the low into central/eastern MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 10, 2014 Share Posted August 10, 2014 I feel more confident on a furnace after the 20th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted August 10, 2014 Share Posted August 10, 2014 EC is a little more interesting taking the low into central/eastern MA. PVD > BOS > Just offshore Portland ME. Plenty of cape around most of sne that run at least. These surface lows that tend to run overhead offer the strongest storms along both sides and along the warm front correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted August 10, 2014 Share Posted August 10, 2014 Box is starting to like the tornado threat but mentions it is still four days away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 10, 2014 Share Posted August 10, 2014 PVD > BOS > Just offshore Portland ME. Plenty of cape around most of sne that run at least. These surface lows that tend to run overhead offer the strongest storms along both sides and along the warm front correct? This may not have much near any cold front, but could feature a lot of heavy rain near and north of the warm front. Tons of low level shear for sure..just a matter of not having too much easterly flow. Would rather more SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted August 10, 2014 Share Posted August 10, 2014 This may not have much near any cold front, but could feature a lot of heavy rain near and north of the warm front. Tons of low level shear for sure..just a matter of not having too much easterly flow. Would rather more SE. Looks like it definitely goes east for a time for a lot of areas. tricky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 10, 2014 Share Posted August 10, 2014 EC is a little more interesting taking the low into central/eastern MA.AMOuT?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 10, 2014 Share Posted August 10, 2014 AMOuT?? 4 days out? That means the threat is more eastern CT towards RI and E-SE MA. If there were to be one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 10, 2014 Share Posted August 10, 2014 4 days out? That means the threat is more eastern CT towards RI and E-SE MA. If there were to be one.Yeserday it was south coast , now it's up to Pike.. Tomorrow NH border Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 10, 2014 Share Posted August 10, 2014 Yeserday it was south coast , now it's up to Pike.. Tomorrow NH border I wouldn't go that far. If by pike you mean like eastern areas..maybe. The soundings are kind of screwy though. The mid level winds are jiving with the LLJ like the Revere tornado had. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 10, 2014 Share Posted August 10, 2014 There is actually a small window of more srfc based stuff on the GFS near and post WF. Might be something else to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 10, 2014 Share Posted August 10, 2014 Yeah I'd wager the 18z GFS is certainly interesting for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted August 10, 2014 Share Posted August 10, 2014 Hoping Wiz chimes in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 10, 2014 Share Posted August 10, 2014 Tor's ftw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted August 10, 2014 Share Posted August 10, 2014 Beautiful evening, enjoy guys, best summer ever.. Nice temps and low dews 73/54 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 10, 2014 Share Posted August 10, 2014 Dangerous THIS APPEARS TO BE A CLASSIC SETUP FOR A POSSIBLE TORNADO SOMEWHERE IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. OF COURSE THIS IS EXTREMELY HARD TO PREDICT 4 DAYS IN ADVANCE. HOWEVER...ALL MODELS INDICATE VERY HIGH HELICITY VALUES...WITH 0-1 KM VALUES OF 200-300 AND 0-3 KM VALUES OF 300-500. THESE ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM ADVECTION AND PRECEDE THE INSTABILITY AXIS. THE ECMWF SHOWS THAT IN EASTERN MA BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z...THE CAPE INCREASES TO 500-800 J/KG WHILE THERE STILL REMAINS HELICITY IN THE 100-200 RANGE. THE GFS IS EARLIER AND WOULD IMPLY A MORNING TORNADIC THREAT WITH HIGHLY CURVED HODOGRAPHS AND HELICITY VALUES EXCEEDING 500. EXPERIENCE HAS SHOWN THAT THE TORNADO THREAT IS MAXIMIZED ON THE TRAILING END OF THE HELICITY MAX...WHERE THE GRADIENT IS TIGHTEST AND WHERE THE INSTABILITY IS INCREASING. THIS WILL BE LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION WITH LOW LCLS AND A LOW CAPE...HIGH SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. ANY CONVECTIVE CELLS WITHIN THE HEAVY RAIN AREA WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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