Typhoon Tip Posted September 6, 2014 Share Posted September 6, 2014 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1687 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1131 AM CDT SAT SEP 06 2014 AREAS AFFECTED...NEW ENGLAND INTO ERN PA/NRN NJ CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY VALID 061631Z - 061800Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT SUMMARY...BROKEN BANDS OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT AND TRACK E/NE ACROSS ERN PA/NRN NJ INTO NEW ENGLAND. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE STORMS. A WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. DISCUSSION...TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE 80S EARLY THIS AFTERNOON IN BROKEN CLOUDINESS AHEAD OF THE SFC COLD FRONT...RESULTING IN MODERATE DESTABILIZATION /MLCAPE APPROACHING 2000 J/KG/ OF THE VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER /LOW 70S DEWPOINTS/. AREAS OF AGITATED CUMULUS WERE EVIDENT ON LATEST VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM CENTRAL PA NEWD INTO NEW ENGLAND IN THE VICINITY WEAK SFC CONFLUENCE ZONES. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO IN THE VICINITY OF THIS MODEST SFC CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE MAIN COLD FRONT FROM ERN PA INTO S NY/N NJ. EFFECTIVE SHEAR AROUND 30-40 KT WILL BE ADEQUATE FOR SOME ORGANIZED STORM CLUSTERS/LINE SEGMENTS. WHILE MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN POOR...STRONG SFC HEATING HAS RESULTED IN STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND COMBINED WITH PW VALUES AOA 1.75 INCHES...STRONG /LOCALLY DAMAGING/ WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH BROKEN BANDS OF CONVECTION. ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL DEVELOP FURTHER N/NE INTO NEW ENGLAND ALONG THE COLD FRONT LATER THIS AFTERNOON. A WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. ..LEITMAN/CORFIDI.. 09/06/2014 ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM... CTP... LAT...LON 40947232 40277394 40157516 40307616 40557702 40867728 41287735 41457720 42317614 43307451 44037318 45527011 46596801 46636776 46226731 45496713 44986720 44466785 41617137 40947232 Nope ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 6, 2014 Share Posted September 6, 2014 okay now that you explained your thoughts further i have no problem lol I'm also trying to be half negative for fun here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted September 6, 2014 Share Posted September 6, 2014 Lonely storm near Plaistow and Kingston NH growing pretty well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 6, 2014 Share Posted September 6, 2014 BDL has hit 90F!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted September 6, 2014 Share Posted September 6, 2014 Lonely storm near Plaistow and Kingston NH growing pretty well. BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 1257 PM EDT SAT SEP 6 2014 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GRAY MAINE HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... SOUTH CENTRAL YORK COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN MAINE... EAST CENTRAL ROCKINGHAM COUNTY IN SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE... * UNTIL 130 PM EDT * AT 1256 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED OVER EXETER...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 6, 2014 Share Posted September 6, 2014 decent rotation near Hamden, NH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted September 6, 2014 Share Posted September 6, 2014 Sure feels it here. BOS already 91/71 and a windy afternoon unfolding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 6, 2014 Share Posted September 6, 2014 WAtch out until 9:00 PM!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted September 6, 2014 Author Share Posted September 6, 2014 Rare bos reaches 90 without drying out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted September 6, 2014 Share Posted September 6, 2014 Rare bos reaches 90 without drying out 83/77 here, it feels unbearable though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted September 6, 2014 Author Share Posted September 6, 2014 This area looks to get pounded on hrrr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 6, 2014 Share Posted September 6, 2014 Get your phones charged and flashlights ready folks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted September 6, 2014 Share Posted September 6, 2014 Get your phones charged and flashlights ready folksHope you're right. Let's get a couple tors. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KartAnimal29 Posted September 6, 2014 Share Posted September 6, 2014 Here comes my first shot just making it's way in to CT down in Danbury Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 6, 2014 Share Posted September 6, 2014 Just need to get some of these stronger vertical shear values to slide in...these cells aren't looking too bad but just need a little extra support and they will really take off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted September 6, 2014 Author Share Posted September 6, 2014 Just need to get some of these stronger vertical shear values to slide in...these cells aren't looking too bad but just need a little extra support and they will really take offits very early (as you know) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 6, 2014 Share Posted September 6, 2014 its very early (as you know) I know...it's just this initial batch will rob a quit a bit of juice...this is also the stuff which could really take off if we had the stronger shear...this would be our best time for a TOR...anything that develops ahead of front will be pretty linear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted September 6, 2014 Author Share Posted September 6, 2014 Latest hrrr looks good. Hires is always good for the general idea and not specifics. It hints at prefrontal discrete and segments, then a second more linear group of storms later on in the afternoon. I think straightline winds are biggest threat and that could come from either discrete or linear. Maybe a tornado this afternoon too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 6, 2014 Share Posted September 6, 2014 Latest hrrr looks good. Hires is always good for the general idea and not specifics. It hints at prefrontal discrete and segments, then a second more linear group of storms later on in the afternoon. I think straightline winds are biggest threat and that could come from either discrete or linear. Maybe a tornado this afternoon too.Someone said that this morning and was told no Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted September 6, 2014 Author Share Posted September 6, 2014 I know...it's just this initial batch will rob a quit a bit of juice...this is also the stuff which could really take off if we had the stronger shear...this would be our best time for a TOR...anything that develops ahead of front will be pretty linear. damn just basically said same thing before I read your response haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 6, 2014 Share Posted September 6, 2014 VERY nasty in Dutchess cty...really trying to become a monster. Prob at severe levels Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 6, 2014 Share Posted September 6, 2014 Someone said that this morning and was told no Because it didn't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 6, 2014 Share Posted September 6, 2014 ughhh on the pulsey side b/c of the shear...GET IN HERE FASTER!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted September 6, 2014 Author Share Posted September 6, 2014 I think main show is not discrete Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted September 6, 2014 Author Share Posted September 6, 2014 Orh to kev is the place to be on hires Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 6, 2014 Share Posted September 6, 2014 Thunder!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlashFreeze Posted September 6, 2014 Share Posted September 6, 2014 Today could be the last chance for something severe here, everything that was even half way decent this summer either fell apart or went around me - as hot as it's been all summer today, 88 and a refreshingly hot 10-15 mph SW breeze. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted September 6, 2014 Share Posted September 6, 2014 I think main show is not discreteI concur Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 6, 2014 Share Posted September 6, 2014 That storm in LFD may drop a TOR as it hits valley Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eekuasepinniW Posted September 6, 2014 Share Posted September 6, 2014 Discrete cells suck ass. Lines are so much better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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