Bostonseminole Posted September 6, 2014 Share Posted September 6, 2014 Full sun here, last of summer should end with a bang! Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted September 6, 2014 Share Posted September 6, 2014 Most of southern New England is seeing dew-points between about 70-73 right now. Fuel is there, but the timing with a few other pieces to the puzzle is still somewhat of a question mark. If things get messy with random storms already firing by midday, that may mitigate the threat. Ideally I think we'd want to hold off until later on for a strong line or perhaps even a line with a few discretes out in front. Fun time for some bangers and Kev may be right in the thick of it. ASOUT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted September 6, 2014 Author Share Posted September 6, 2014 Sun is out today has that feel to iti know exactly what you mean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted September 6, 2014 Share Posted September 6, 2014 Yup bright and sunny, muggy. Cloud cover / early showers clearly not an issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 6, 2014 Share Posted September 6, 2014 The 12z NAM bufkit soundings are pretty crazy...pretty large hodographs with high cape and helicity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted September 6, 2014 Share Posted September 6, 2014 Strong winds seem like a good bet for many Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted September 6, 2014 Share Posted September 6, 2014 Do we see a svr tw issued later? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 6, 2014 Share Posted September 6, 2014 This gets an 8 out of 10 on the hardograph scale Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted September 6, 2014 Share Posted September 6, 2014 Keep that faint line of cu/showers across western Mass. at bay and we'll continue to ramp up the environment into the afternoon. HRRR keeps insisting on primary development over the next few hours and that's part of why it ticks the threat down a bit later this afternoon. I'm actually mildly intrigued by this setup today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted September 6, 2014 Share Posted September 6, 2014 Any improvements for the whites? Pretty overcast here now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 6, 2014 Share Posted September 6, 2014 We are starting to see those stronger 0-6km shear values tick back northward...hopefully not too much more and hopefully the stronger values work in before convection gets going. Seeing several stations continuing to hold onto a S or SE sfc wind is really making things rather interesting...especially for any discrete that get going which will likely happen early on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted September 6, 2014 Share Posted September 6, 2014 and just like that the sun is out for the Galilee Seafood Festival down here at the docks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted September 6, 2014 Share Posted September 6, 2014 Clouds building here. Hopefully this doesn't screw this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted September 6, 2014 Share Posted September 6, 2014 It's raining. Down to 76F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted September 6, 2014 Share Posted September 6, 2014 We are starting to see those stronger 0-6km shear values tick back northward...hopefully not too much more and hopefully the stronger values work in before convection gets going. Seeing several stations continuing to hold onto a S or SE sfc wind is really making things rather interesting...especially for any discrete that get going which will likely happen early on. 11 a.m. mesoanalysis already shows sig tor values over 0.5 across western southern New England. Could this be a rare event this year where things actually line up for a decent severe setup? We'll soon find out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 6, 2014 Share Posted September 6, 2014 ..TRENDS IN MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED ANOUTFLOW BOUNDARY LEFT OVER FROM FRIDAY EVENING/OVERNIGHT CONVECTIONEXTENDED FROM NRN KY THROUGH NRN WV...SOUTH-CENTRAL TO NERN PA TONRN VT....NEW ENGLAND/NORTHEAST U.S. TO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...EARLY MORNING VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THE GREATESTSURFACE HEATING SHOULD OCCUR EAST AND SOUTH OF THE LATTER CONVECTIVEBOUNDARY DESCRIBED IN THE SYNOPSIS... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 6, 2014 Share Posted September 6, 2014 11 a.m. mesoanalysis already shows sig tor values over 0.5 across western southern New England. Could this be a rare event this year where things actually line up for a decent severe setup? We'll soon find out. The lapse rates are poor but that should be compensated somewhat by the large cape values thanks to dews in the lower 70's. Ekster always said if you want to overcome crappy mlvl lapse rates get dews into the lower 70's. I wish the shear was stronger but given the cape values I think it is adequate enough and the models do hint that those stronger values could work in with the convection. It's quite an intriguing setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 6, 2014 Share Posted September 6, 2014 Anyone east of this line you have dwindling hope ... Any one west, you have very little or no hope. This is the nope line. The west side of the nope line can be compensated by fresh diabatic heating; does the feebling summer sun bring the goods? Proobably, but there cloud contamination there so doubtful. This boundary separates yesterday's residual outflow from evening overnight Lakes action, from lesser adulterated air. It is out ahead of the cold front by a 300 km or so, and though the air mass may feel the same on either side of this boundary, and even appear the same at in the T/TD, these demarcation lines still tend to delineate regions that are a quanta less stable from those that have better positive buoyancy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted September 6, 2014 Author Share Posted September 6, 2014 I'm confident on severe reports today. Not expecting a widespread severe event. Gonna be solid though, especially for areas that usually don't benefit from severe events. Interior eastern mass has very impressive svr parameters today, and timing favors there and west to BDL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted September 6, 2014 Author Share Posted September 6, 2014 I'm going to go ahead and completely disagree with you. Anyone east of this line you have dwindling hope ... Any one west, you have very little or no hope. This is the nope line. The west side of the nope line can be compensated by fresh diabatic heating; does the feebling summer sun bring the goods? Proobably, but there cloud contamination there so doubtful. This boundary separates yesterday's residual outflow from evening overnight Lakes action, from lesser adulterated air. It is out ahead of the cold front by a 300 km or so, and though the air mass may feel the same on either side of this boundary, and even appear the same at in the T/TD, these demarcation lines still tend to delineate regions that are a quanta less stable from those that have better positive buoyancy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 6, 2014 Share Posted September 6, 2014 This smacks of a typical New England walk away and do something else and hope to be surprised by an interloping rumble of thunder at some point... Otherwise, it's a wasted day of angst and hope - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 6, 2014 Share Posted September 6, 2014 I'm going to go ahead and completely disagree with you. One thing I left out is that the nope line is moving east... It's covered the distance between ALB to central Mass in about 2.5 hours. It may yet dissipate as diabatic heating tries to normalize the air mass on either side, but the cloud contamination (particularly at our latitude at this time of dimming sun-angles..) is a killer. We'll have to see on that. The forced ascent is missing from this though, so these other distracting factors become louder as forces in them selves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobertSul Posted September 6, 2014 Share Posted September 6, 2014 The lapse rates are poor but that should be compensated somewhat by the large cape values thanks to dews in the lower 70's. Ekster always said if you want to overcome crappy mlvl lapse rates get dews into the lower 70's. I wish the shear was stronger but given the cape values I think it is adequate enough and the models do hint that those stronger values could work in with the convection. It's quite an intriguing setup. The shear here in Michigan yesterday was slightly weaker/farther removed than Southern New England's (though our CAPE values were slightly higher) and we still ended up with widespread wind damage with gusts exceeding hurricane force in a couple places. Something in the neighborhood of 400,000 customers were without power, which is a lot by our standards (as a means of comparison metro Detroit has about 3.7 million citizens whereas metro Boston has 4.5). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 6, 2014 Share Posted September 6, 2014 The shear here in Michigan yesterday was slightly weaker/farther removed than Southern New England's (though our CAPE values were slightly higher) and we still ended up with widespread wind damage with gusts exceeding hurricane force in a couple places. Something in the neighborhood of 400,000 customers were without power, which is a lot by our standards. You also had better synoptic forcing out that way, yesterday.. .This whole cyclone flow aloft that's arriving is being sheared and muted some by the fact that it's running into compressed quasi-Bermuda ridge, so the dynamics are bit weaker. There is an index finger rule, though, that if one is trying to predict severe in SNE, look to Michigan the day before. The devil of disappointment is in the details though. It'll be interesting to see how this gets wasted or used, either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted September 6, 2014 Share Posted September 6, 2014 After 0.01" from some showers we're right back to 80F/73F under BKN/THN OVC skies. There's still plenty of soup behind that line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 6, 2014 Share Posted September 6, 2014 The shear here in Michigan yesterday was slightly weaker/farther removed than Southern New England's (though our CAPE values were slightly higher) and we still ended up with widespread wind damage with gusts exceeding hurricane force in a couple places. Something in the neighborhood of 400,000 customers were without power, which is a lot by our standards. You guys got crushed pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 6, 2014 Share Posted September 6, 2014 After 0.01" from some showers we're right back to 80F/73F under BKN/THN OVC skies. There's still plenty of soup behind that line. Right ... never in contention to say again: despite that appeal, both in feel and measure, these "lines" have a tendency to demarcate action from lesser or inaction. It's definitely possible to overcome that, again ... if the sun can diabatically normalize things. We'll just have to wait and see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 6, 2014 Share Posted September 6, 2014 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1687NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK1131 AM CDT SAT SEP 06 2014AREAS AFFECTED...NEW ENGLAND INTO ERN PA/NRN NJCONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELYVALID 061631Z - 061800ZPROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENTSUMMARY...BROKEN BANDS OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILLDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT AND TRACK E/NE ACROSSERN PA/NRN NJ INTO NEW ENGLAND. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAINTHREAT WITH THESE STORMS. A WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED WITHIN THENEXT 1-2 HOURS.DISCUSSION...TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE 80S EARLY THISAFTERNOON IN BROKEN CLOUDINESS AHEAD OF THE SFC COLDFRONT...RESULTING IN MODERATE DESTABILIZATION /MLCAPE APPROACHING2000 J/KG/ OF THE VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER /LOW 70S DEWPOINTS/.AREAS OF AGITATED CUMULUS WERE EVIDENT ON LATEST VIS SATELLITEIMAGERY FROM CENTRAL PA NEWD INTO NEW ENGLAND IN THE VICINITY WEAKSFC CONFLUENCE ZONES. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THENEXT HOUR OR SO IN THE VICINITY OF THIS MODEST SFC CONVERGENCE AHEADOF THE MAIN COLD FRONT FROM ERN PA INTO S NY/N NJ. EFFECTIVE SHEARAROUND 30-40 KT WILL BE ADEQUATE FOR SOME ORGANIZED STORMCLUSTERS/LINE SEGMENTS. WHILE MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL REMAINPOOR...STRONG SFC HEATING HAS RESULTED IN STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSERATES...AND COMBINED WITH PW VALUES AOA 1.75 INCHES...STRONG/LOCALLY DAMAGING/ WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH BROKEN BANDS OFCONVECTION. ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL DEVELOP FURTHER N/NE INTO NEWENGLAND ALONG THE COLD FRONT LATER THIS AFTERNOON.A WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS...LEITMAN/CORFIDI.. 09/06/2014ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP...LAT...LON 40947232 40277394 40157516 40307616 40557702 4086772841287735 41457720 42317614 43307451 44037318 4552701146596801 46636776 46226731 45496713 44986720 4446678541617137 40947232 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 6, 2014 Share Posted September 6, 2014 Watch these towers ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted September 6, 2014 Author Share Posted September 6, 2014 One thing I left out is that the nope line is moving east... It's covered the distance between ALB to central Mass in about 2.5 hours. It may yet dissipate as diabatic heating tries to normalize the air mass on either side, but the cloud contamination (particularly at our latitude at this time of dimming sun-angles..) is a killer. We'll have to see on that. The forced ascent is missing from this though, so these other distracting factors become louder as forces in them selves. okay now that you explained your thoughts further i have no problem lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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