Damage In Tolland Posted July 22, 2014 Share Posted July 22, 2014 What are you talking about? Storms are progged for most areas... the discussion is where the best chance for severe would be. I'm sorry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 22, 2014 Share Posted July 22, 2014 Haven't looked at anything....between work and working in my presentation how does tomorrow look? I ask b/c out field trip is to the Rock Cats game. Hoping Ryan can give some insight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornadomachine Posted July 22, 2014 Share Posted July 22, 2014 Looks like a solid squall-line event is in store. My bet is a smattering of wind reports from Maine to, say, Tennessee, right along where the SPC has the 15 and 5% zones. Probably gets strongest around the spine of the Appalachians, and weakens after due to loss of daytime heating and ocean effect. I see here your standard New England Summer Special event here, nothing too eyepopping for me. It certainly looks like discrete cells will be strongly in the minority, if any form at all. Sit back, relax, and watch a wall of bangers overspread the region. Also, great name for the thread, if I do say so myself! Heh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornadomachine Posted July 22, 2014 Share Posted July 22, 2014 It seems getting the correct "timing" on storms this summer has been particularly difficult? Can't remember a summer when almost every occasion has been after midnight. At least for eastern areas?As far as I know, it isn't incredibly uncommon to see a strong diurnal effect in our area with respect to summer thunder. Storms usually form in unstable air to the west in the afternoon, cross the Berks and Whites at peak strength during the evening, and collapse in the east at night as they meet the triad of evil: daytime heat loss, orographic forcing (downslope sinking air kills storms) and ocean air. We've actually had a couple events, particularly in eastern new england, this year that were not diurnal at all, most noteworthy being last Tuesday's craziness in NE MA into ME. You get a whole mix of stuff, really, but the diurnal event style certainly feels more common. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted July 23, 2014 Share Posted July 23, 2014 Despite the rather tepid discussions regarding instability with the SPC outlooks, DTX did have 8.1 C/km lapse rates on their 00z sounding last evening. Even modified somewhat liberally to 6.5 would yield pretty good instability for these parts given the surface T/Td. I'm encouraged by the ACCAS showing up on satellite already (ACCAS by 8 means Ekster stays late). Shear leaves something to be desired, but at least up our way we should have enough to make things interesting. Of course the forcing parallel flow should give us a few flash flood warnings regardless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 23, 2014 Share Posted July 23, 2014 Despite the rather tepid discussions regarding instability with the SPC outlooks, DTX did have 8.1 C/km lapse rates on their 00z sounding last evening. Even modified somewhat liberally to 6.5 would yield pretty good instability for these parts given the surface T/Td. I'm encouraged by the ACCAS showing up on satellite already (ACCAS by 8 means Ekster stays late). Shear leaves something to be desired, but at least up our way we should have enough to make things interesting. Of course the forcing parallel flow should give us a few flash flood warnings regardless. ACCAS by 8 means Ekster stays late is amazing lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted July 23, 2014 Share Posted July 23, 2014 This is a must see. Fascinating Reed Timmer @reedtimmerTVN 14m NEW VIDEO: Rare, up-close @GoPro video of violent, white suction vortices under EF4 #tornado in SD by @stormpics https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?v=10152571266484169&l=6973131424933016763 … That's pretty wild, Kevin--thanks for posting it. Hopefully today will play out up here (especially if it can play out after sunset). Regardless, it will be great to be rid of the mank. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 23, 2014 Share Posted July 23, 2014 Seems like things are looking a bit better today in SNE than they were yesterday for at least some severe.Still marginal though.. Hopefully at least a line of storms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted July 23, 2014 Author Share Posted July 23, 2014 Box has a nice disco this AM. Sounds like typical lower end severe threat today for sne. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornadomachine Posted July 23, 2014 Share Posted July 23, 2014 Squall line special. With luck, maybe someone'll see a nice shelf cloud. Or some wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted July 23, 2014 Author Share Posted July 23, 2014 Accas here. Bright sunshine muted for a short while. Very hot and humid out in this open field. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted July 23, 2014 Share Posted July 23, 2014 80/70F, blahh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted July 23, 2014 Share Posted July 23, 2014 The NAM soundings were terrible yesterday with great low level lapse rates and abysmal mid level lapse rates, thanks to a big inversion above H7. SPC actual soundings this morning show that warm layer lower in the atmosphere yielding pretty nice m/l lapse rates in fact of ~6.5 deg/km. At ALB there was some backing at the surface and increased helicity was noted, but of course the upper level wind support is much better as you head NE. Best guess from me would be some west to east moving cells cruising the scenic route down the Kangamangus hwy early on and maybe a second more linear round later on and further south. Thinking it goes north of my area but if we could catch the tail end of the line it could get mildly interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 23, 2014 Share Posted July 23, 2014 The NAM soundings were terrible yesterday with great low level lapse rates and abysmal mid level lapse rates, thanks to a big inversion above H7. SPC actual soundings this morning show that warm layer lower in the atmosphere yielding pretty nice m/l lapse rates in fact of ~6.5 deg/km. At ALB there was some backing at the surface and increased helicity was noted, but of course the upper level wind support is much better as you head NE. Best guess from me would be some west to east moving cells cruising the scenic route down the Kangamangus hwy early on and maybe a second more linear round later on and further south. Thinking it goes north of my area but if we could catch the tail end of the line it could get mildly interesting. Nice looking hodographs by 21z on the NAM for the Valley. Not expecting much though with that decent inversion around H7. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 23, 2014 Share Posted July 23, 2014 HRR doesn't get anything into SNE until after 7;00 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 23, 2014 Share Posted July 23, 2014 Wagons North Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted July 23, 2014 Share Posted July 23, 2014 84/72F moist Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted July 23, 2014 Author Share Posted July 23, 2014 Hrrr does seem to suggest that southern portions of sne struggle to get much today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted July 23, 2014 Share Posted July 23, 2014 Wagons North Well, at least it waters my grass on that depiction. 80.1/73 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted July 23, 2014 Share Posted July 23, 2014 91/72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornadomachine Posted July 23, 2014 Share Posted July 23, 2014 Well, at least it waters my grass on that depiction. 80.1/73 That's the rain past the main line, everyone N of the pike and west of 495 will likely see thunder on that run. NE MA, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted July 23, 2014 Author Share Posted July 23, 2014 If your in ct nw of an hvn-tol line and in mass nw of that line up to bos.. I think it looks good for a rumble shower tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 23, 2014 Share Posted July 23, 2014 Just about everyone should see a storm . Even to SE Mass tonight. Just not many severe. More likely we all get some decent lightning and bangs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornadomachine Posted July 23, 2014 Share Posted July 23, 2014 If your in ct nw of an hvn-tol line and in mass nw of that line up to bos.. I think it looks good for a rumble shower tonightI'd feel solid with that forecast, this doesn't feel like an over performer of a setup. Classic summer stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted July 23, 2014 Share Posted July 23, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted July 23, 2014 Share Posted July 23, 2014 Surprised that the meso discussion says only a 40% chance of a Severe Thunderstorm Watch. I would think higher chance than that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted July 23, 2014 Share Posted July 23, 2014 Surprised that the meso discussion says only a 40% chance of a Severe Thunderstorm Watch. I would think higher chance than that I think things end up firing late by the time it gets here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted July 23, 2014 Share Posted July 23, 2014 The moose in Jackman are getting the first warned cell of the day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted July 23, 2014 Share Posted July 23, 2014 Instability has built nicely here, but quite possibly for naught. Nearly 3K at the surface, 2K ML. With such a warm layer aloft the cap is going to be difficult to break and I just don't see the external lifting mechanism. As today was modeled it seemed the height falls would be paramount and even up into E NH and S ME have been somewhat muted, though the better shear and low level lapse rates to go along with still decent instability should be able to compensate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornadomachine Posted July 23, 2014 Share Posted July 23, 2014 Latest hrrr has everyone but SE MA in on it. Could best some nasty stuff in CT if it verifies. Gonna be storms today, but I still don't feel like this will be anything worth remembering. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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