gulfcane Posted July 4, 2014 Share Posted July 4, 2014 Based on that pass, radar, and sat presentation...I could go with 85kt cat 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted July 4, 2014 Share Posted July 4, 2014 105 knot bin on the Morehead City radar at 3,000 feet with multiple 100+ knot bins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted July 4, 2014 Share Posted July 4, 2014 That pass does not support cat 2. nothing above 79 kt at the surface so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gulfcane Posted July 4, 2014 Share Posted July 4, 2014 That pass does not support cat 2. nothing above 79 kt at the surface so far SFMR provides a singular data set to utilize in determining the maximum sustained winds. However, a holistic approach which considers all the available data must be considered in performing the final analysis of intensity. Just because the SFMR tool did not capture 83kt winds does not mean they do not exist. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted July 4, 2014 Share Posted July 4, 2014 With those obs, the rate of intensification, and the improving presentation, I would say it would be safe for the NHC to put Arthur at 95 MPH at 9 PM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted July 4, 2014 Share Posted July 4, 2014 Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)Transmitted: 4th day of the month at 00:35ZAircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 304)Storm Number & Year: 01L in 2014Storm Name: Arthur (flight in the North Atlantic basin)Mission Number: 14Observation Number: 04A. Time of Center Fix: 4th day of the month at 0:08:10ZB. Center Fix Coordinates: 34°03'N 77°17'W (34.05N 77.2833W)B. Center Fix Location: 38 miles (61 km) to the ESE (108°) from Wilmington, NC, USA.C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,884m (9,462ft) at 700mbD. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 65kts (~ 74.8mph)E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 21 nautical miles (24 statute miles) to the SSW (213°) of center fixF. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 295° at 72kts (From the WNW at ~ 82.9mph)G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 17 nautical miles (20 statute miles) to the SSW (209°) of center fixH. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 976mb (28.82 inHg)I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 11°C (52°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,050m (10,007ft)J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 13°C (55°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,053m (10,016ft)K. Dewpoint Temp & Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not AvailableL. Eye Character: Open in the westM. Eye Shape: Elliptical (oval shaped)M. Orientation of Major Axis in Elliptical Eye: 330° to 150° (NNW to SSE)M. Length of Major Axis in Elliptical Eye: 24 nautical miles (28 statute miles)M. Length of Minor Axis in Elliptical Eye: 16 nautical miles (18 statute miles)N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and TemperatureN. Fix Level: 700mbO. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical milesO. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical milesRemarks Section:Maximum Outbound and Flight Level Wind: 94kts (~ 108.2mph) which was observed 24 nautical miles (28 statute miles) to the ESE (110°) from the flight level center at 0:17:10ZDropsondeSurface Wind at Center: From 150° at 8kts (From the SSE at 9mph) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxtrackercody Posted July 4, 2014 Share Posted July 4, 2014 With those obs, the rate of intensification, and the improving presentation, I would say it would be safe for the NHC to put Arthur at 95 MPH at 9 PM. 95 mph does not exist now because it does not have an appropriate knots-to-mph conversion. 80kt is 90 mph and 85kt is 100 mph, so it'll be one of those two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted July 4, 2014 Share Posted July 4, 2014 Buoy 41036 just reported a wind gust to 81 mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted July 4, 2014 Share Posted July 4, 2014 95 mph does not exist now because it does not have an appropriate knots-to-mph conversion. 80kt is 90 mph and 85kt is 100 mph, so it'll be one of those two. I'm well aware of that, but 95 MPH is used in intermediate advisories since those are in MPH and not KT. They are mainly used when the NHC is sure of an continued trend in intensification to the next full advisory and/or landfall is imminent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted July 4, 2014 Share Posted July 4, 2014 105 knot bin on the Morehead City radar at 3,000 feet with multiple 100+ knot bins. assuming you're looking at the base velocity product like I am? because I am seeing on my level3 feed 102kt inbound from 34.2n 76.84w, and 68kt outbound 34.28n 77.42w Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted July 4, 2014 Share Posted July 4, 2014 assuming you're looking at the base velocity product like I am? because I am seeing on my level3 feed 102kt inbound from 34.2n 76.84w, and 68kt outbound 34.28n 77.42w Yes except I'm using GRAE. Just measured 107.8 kt at 34.181N -76.810W Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxtrackercody Posted July 4, 2014 Share Posted July 4, 2014 I'm well aware of that, but 95 MPH is used in intermediate advisories since those are in MPH and not KT. They are mainly used when the NHC is sure of an continued trend in intensification to the next full advisory and/or landfall is imminent. Didn't know that...thanks for the info. Dropsonde in the eastern eyewall: Level Wind Direction Wind Speed 989mb (Surface) 160° (from the SSE) 80 knots (92 mph) 981mb 160° (from the SSE) 84 knots (97 mph) 974mb 165° (from the SSE) 83 knots (96 mph) 967mb 165° (from the SSE) 93 knots (107 mph) 959mb 180° (from the S) 100 knots (115 mph) 955mb 180° (from the S) 98 knots (113 mph) 950mb 175° (from the S) 105 knots (121 mph) 942mb 175° (from the S) 105 knots (121 mph) 934mb 185° (from the S) 115 knots (132 mph) 927mb 180° (from the S) 105 knots (121 mph) 918mb 185° (from the S) 106 knots (122 mph) 908mb 190° (from the S) 95 knots (109 mph) 891mb 200° (from the SSW) 101 knots (116 mph) 850mb 205° (from the SSW) 97 knots (112 mph) 697mb 215° (from the SW) 89 knots (102 mph) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smog strangler Posted July 4, 2014 Share Posted July 4, 2014 Pretty big win IRT the NHC forecast and then the cone all the way back to when a embryo Arthur was sinking south and east initially. SOLID Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted July 4, 2014 Share Posted July 4, 2014 BULLETIN HURRICANE ARTHUR INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 12B NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014 900 PM EDT THU JUL 03 2014 ...ARTHUR BECOMES A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 900 PM EDT...0100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...34.2N 77.1W ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM ENE OF CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA ABOUT 110 MI...165 KM SW OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...160 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB...28.82 INCHES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted July 4, 2014 Share Posted July 4, 2014 The towers near the eye-wall are increasing in height rapidly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted July 4, 2014 Share Posted July 4, 2014 Wow-Morehead City and the Outer Banks are about to get absolutely raked. Eastern eyewall looks headed right for them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted July 4, 2014 Share Posted July 4, 2014 Arthur has rapidly filtered out the dry air on radar over the past hour. Looks like we'll have an intensifying system up till landfall. Anyone know of any good streaming coverage from local stations? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted July 4, 2014 Share Posted July 4, 2014 Beaufort already gusting over 50 mph if this slight north trend continues then the eastern end of Emerald Isle and the OBX are going to have a rough 4-5 hrs coming up.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted July 4, 2014 Share Posted July 4, 2014 Pretty big win IRT the NHC forecast and then the cone all the way back to when a embryo Arthur was sinking south and east initially. SOLID he definitely outperformed my expectations. I honestly didn't know if he was even going to make it out of sub-tropical status. But Arthur is looking quite healthy right now. hate to see what the numbers at HSE are tonight, as well as in the gulf of Maine and near Halifax down the line. heck, this storm may go right over the MHX radar site, given the current track. have to admit though, it would be the first time the eye of a hurricane would go directly over the radar site in my memory (as most of them i remember would slide just a few miles to either side, please correct me if I'm wrong). it would be like the tornado going within the cone of silence down in Jackson MS earlier this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted July 4, 2014 Share Posted July 4, 2014 The Morehead City NEXRAD is running in SAILS mode. You can even see mesovortices in the eye now. First time since Ike and it will be interesting to see now that we'll be getting 0.5 degree tilt scans every 2-2.5 minutes. Just amazing to watch... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCStateMMY Posted July 4, 2014 Share Posted July 4, 2014 Arthur has rapidly filtered out the dry air on radar over the past hour. Looks like we'll have an intensifying system up till landfall. Anyone know of any good streaming coverage from local stations? WRAL in Raleigh is covering right now, but for tornado warnings. WNCT and WITN in Greenviller should be streaming right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CandymanColumbusGA Posted July 4, 2014 Share Posted July 4, 2014 Arthur has rapidly filtered out the dry air on radar over the past hour. Looks like we'll have an intensifying system up till landfall. Anyone know of any good streaming coverage from local stations? We're streaming WNCT, Greenville, NC, here: http://www.wrbl.com/category/258132/livestream9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncforecaster89 Posted July 4, 2014 Share Posted July 4, 2014 I am in my p/u truck approximately 1.5 miles ESE of downtown Beaufort, SC: windy and rainy for sure. More later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted July 4, 2014 Share Posted July 4, 2014 We're streaming WNCT, Greenville, NC, here: http://www.wrbl.com/category/258132/livestream9 It wont be to bad here unless it goes more or less due north from its current location as far as direct impact from the center goes but I haven't seen so many couplets being spawned from a storm in quite some time there has to be 6-7 of them in the band north of the river.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted July 4, 2014 Share Posted July 4, 2014 I am in my p/u truck approximately 1.5 miles ESE of downtown Beaufort, SC: windy and rainy for sure. More later. If you're in SC you are good. Beaufort, NC might be a different story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderwolf Posted July 4, 2014 Share Posted July 4, 2014 Beaufort already gusting over 50 mph if this slight north trend continues then the eastern end of Emerald Isle and the OBX are going to have a rough 4-5 hrs coming up.... Emerald Isle is a town on the western side of the island. The island itself is called Bogue Banks. Emerald Isle is likely seeing their worst conditions over the next couple hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted July 4, 2014 Share Posted July 4, 2014 If you're in SC you are good. Beaufort, NC might be a different story.I'm pretty sure that's what he meant, he's a seasoned hurricane chaser. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blueheronNC Posted July 4, 2014 Share Posted July 4, 2014 We're streaming WNCT, Greenville, NC, here: http://www.wrbl.com/category/258132/livestream9 This is absolutely atrocious coverage. The meteorologist just showed a graphic that he said was made some time ago but "still accurate" that shows predicted winds for Morehead City/Beaufort to be 25-45 mph, gusting 50-55 mph. It looks like it was painted when this thing was still predicted to go offshore! It didn't even give Hatteras hurricane-force winds! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted July 4, 2014 Author Share Posted July 4, 2014 90-100 knots @ 500 feet! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted July 4, 2014 Share Posted July 4, 2014 I'm pretty sure that's what he meant, he's a seasoned hurricane chaser. Thanks just clarifying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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