IsentropicLift Posted July 16, 2014 Share Posted July 16, 2014 It's not that unusual to get a few days of nice weather after an extended wet period. Especially during the Summer months. We're fast approaching now the end of what most around here would consider the boring stretch that begins around May 1st. How much the Tropics ramp up is yet to be determined, but we won't go the entire season with only one named storm. 1992 didn't see its first named storm until August 17th (Andrew) and the season still finished with 7 named storms. Then it's onto early noreaster season. Perhaps an early shot of snow and then we're off and running. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 16, 2014 Share Posted July 16, 2014 The 12z Euro has activity now on Sunday afternoon in the area. As I mentioned earlier it wouldn't surprise me if this period trended more active given the short wave passage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted July 16, 2014 Share Posted July 16, 2014 It's not that unusual to get a few days of nice weather after an extended wet period. Especially during the Summer months. We're fast approaching now the end of what most around here would consider the boring stretch that begins around May 1st. How much the Tropics ramp up is yet to be determined, but we won't go the entire season with only one named storm. 1992 didn't see its first named storm until August 17th (Andrew) and the season still finished with 7 named storms. Then it's onto early noreaster season. Perhaps an early shot of snow and then we're off and running. I feel like May to July is pretty interesting since we've had a number of severe threats to track. if the tropics are quiet August and September can be very dry and boring like 2005 before we got bombarded in October. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 16, 2014 Share Posted July 16, 2014 I feel like May to July is pretty interesting since we've had a number of severe threats to track. if the tropics are quiet August and September can be very dry and boring like 2005 before we got bombarded in October. Each year is different. But those months are normally fairly mundane ourside of thunderstorms and rouge tropical threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 16, 2014 Share Posted July 16, 2014 Just like that things change. The Euro is wet for Sunday and the first part of Monday, Wednesday, Thursday and Friday. We should stay dry through at least Saturday though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted July 16, 2014 Share Posted July 16, 2014 And it will change back to dry a dozen times Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted July 16, 2014 Share Posted July 16, 2014 Just like that things change. The Euro is wet for Sunday and the first part of Monday, Wednesday, Thursday and Friday. We should stay dry through at least Saturday though. Damn it there goes fishing on sunday after work! :/ glad you got your rain last night though, yesterday i had ALOT of lightning, torrential rain but not much thunder. Not a severe day but certainly not a dull one either Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted July 16, 2014 Share Posted July 16, 2014 12z Euro has less then .05" of rain for Sunday. Whatever rain falls is very late and into early Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 16, 2014 Share Posted July 16, 2014 12z Euro has less then .05" of rain for Sunday. Whatever rain falls is very late and into early Monday. Yes, the majority falls between 00z Monday and 18z Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 16, 2014 Share Posted July 16, 2014 This is the Euro precip through Monday afternoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 16, 2014 Share Posted July 16, 2014 Damn it there goes fishing on sunday after work! :/ glad you got your rain last night though, yesterday i had ALOT of lightning, torrential rain but not much thunder. Not a severe day but certainly not a dull one either Sunday looks fine right now as long as things don't speed up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted July 16, 2014 Share Posted July 16, 2014 Each year is different. But those months are normally fairly mundane ourside of thunderstorms and rouge tropical threat. I find April - May and October - November (expect for the last 3 years or so) the most boring...heat, hurricanes, and thunderstorms are fun to track just like cold and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 16, 2014 Share Posted July 16, 2014 I find April - May and October - November (expect for the last 3 years or so) the most boring...heat, hurricanes, and thunderstorms are fun to track just like cold and snow. April can be fun because you can still get a snow event or a stratiform precipitation system. Once the end of May rolls around a majority of our precipitation falls from convection or the occasional tropical system or remnants of such. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted July 16, 2014 Share Posted July 16, 2014 The most boring months are usually mid to late March through May. The only reason September is interesting is because of the tropics otherwise it could arguably be considered the most boring month weather wise. I love October and November because they can really deliver and be quite exciting, and the entire transition from hot to cold, shortening days, and the foliage is awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted July 16, 2014 Share Posted July 16, 2014 Just like that things change. The Euro is wet for Sunday and the first part of Monday, Wednesday, Thursday and Friday. We should stay dry through at least Saturday though. Sunday looks fine right now as long as things don't speed up. Cmon man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 16, 2014 Share Posted July 16, 2014 Cmon man.Cmon what? I made a mistake and acknowledged it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted July 17, 2014 Share Posted July 17, 2014 Have had 34.65" of precip. so far here this year which is about 8" above normal to date. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 17, 2014 Share Posted July 17, 2014 I hope we can make a run at August 2011 given a similar forecasted drop in the NAO but odds are we won't get there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 17, 2014 Author Share Posted July 17, 2014 Looks like the cool down may fail to deliver a day below 80 Today;s highs TEB: 85EWR: 84 New Brnswick: 84LGA: 83 PHL: 83ACY: 83JFK: 83TTN: 81NYC: 81ISP: 81 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 17, 2014 Author Share Posted July 17, 2014 I hope we can make a run at August 2011 given a similar forecasted drop in the NAO but odds are we won't get there. You belong here http://www.firstpost.com/india/rains-mumbai-seasons-highest-24-hour-rainfall-recorded-colaba-1621335.html Id be content if we had no rain till labor day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted July 17, 2014 Share Posted July 17, 2014 In the end this should get many back to normal for the month . Many spots are plus 1 ish to date . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted July 17, 2014 Share Posted July 17, 2014 In the end this should get many back to normal for the month . Many spots are plus 1 ish to date . I still think we end on the + side of zero. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted July 17, 2014 Share Posted July 17, 2014 I still think we end on the + side of zero. Should be close , That trough should be deeper in the East as we get closer . See if that gets us to the wire. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 17, 2014 Share Posted July 17, 2014 any chance we get hot under the block as the WAR moves west? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted July 17, 2014 Share Posted July 17, 2014 That retrograding block looks more like we saw during March 2001. We could definitely add to our above normal rainfall totals as energy will try to undercut the block. But we could see some model mayhem since the models usually struggle with the details as these high latitude blocks migrate to the west. A.gif B.gif gfs-ens_z500a_nhem_41.png gfs-ens_z500a_nhem_61.png March 2001. Thanks for bringing that fun period back up . I think that trough deepens and some very cool numbers show up around the lakes into upstate NY and NE as well . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 17, 2014 Share Posted July 17, 2014 March 2001. Thanks for bringing that fun period back up . I think that trough deepens and some very cool numbers show up around the lakes into upstate NY and NE as well . Looks like a rollercoaster pattern with present cool anomalies giving way to warmer day 6-10 and cooler 11-15. That perma-trough over the Great Lakes hasn't allowed the warmth to lock in pretty much since last August. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 17, 2014 Author Share Posted July 17, 2014 any chance we get hot under the block as the WAR moves west? Looks pretty warm to hot starting on/around 7/21 - 7/26 before the next trough, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 17, 2014 Author Share Posted July 17, 2014 Looks like a rollercoaster pattern with present cool anomalies giving way to warmer day 6-10 and cooler 11-15. That perma-trough over the Great Lakes hasn't allowed the warmth to lock in pretty much since last August. agree bluewave but so far the warmer anomalies have been stronger overall. Especially from out southern sections in CNJ on south towards philly where departures were close to +2 or greater halfway through july. Closer to +1 - 1.5 in NYC and east, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted July 17, 2014 Share Posted July 17, 2014 I have a temp departure of +1.0 so far this month here. It's been warm but nothing impressive or anomalous. Mostly night time mins and humidity driven. 90 degree days are 5 thus far in July. Precip at 5" and about 32" on the year. Summer pretty much going as planned so far w/ the coolness in the Lakes and back and forth in the northeast, biased warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted July 17, 2014 Share Posted July 17, 2014 Mt holly morning disco says no rain and hints at heat infiltration due to the setup...boo hoo gloom and doomers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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