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Hurricane/Tropical Season 2014


NEG NAO

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If you guys are on Twitter, you need to follow this guy astro_reid (Reid Wiseman). He's an American on the ISS who posts the most amazing pictures all day long:

Here is Arthur from 400km up:

BroCseZCcAAPc8D.jpg

Sick! I love anything space related. I wish we funded it like we do our wars.

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Sorry if this is veering a bit off-topic, but it's in reference to earlier posts in this thread.....I don't think any of us (hopefully) are wishing for anyone to be hurt or lose their home or vehicle from a storm. However, I believe we are almost all here rooting for exciting weather. Exciting weather is always in the form of a storm. We are interested because we want to see a strong storm and the power of Mother Nature affect us. It does not mean, though, that anyone wishes harm upon another. If you are watching a sports game and root for one team to win, does it mean that you want that to happen so that you can see the other players cry and suffer ? Nope, not usually. Like sports, weather is a hobby for many of us. As for this storm, it won't be nearly as strong nor affect areas in even remotely the same or similar way as a system like Sandy did

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How about 30-50mph gusts tomorrow morning in heavy rain squalls. Beach erosion, coastal flooding and maybe a scrape by the western half of the core.

I highly doubt the wind is a big deal here and the rain will be run of the mill. The beach erosion and high surf is more likely. The core will be well southeast of where it can make a significant impact here.

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I'll never forget the feeling in the pit of my stomach when I saw Sandy switch over to a westerly track and knew it was on track to be at its worst during high tide. Luckily we likely won't see anything like that again in our lives.

I knew we were in trouble when I woke up early Monday morning and I saw the storm in the low 940's. Of course I had to go into work that day but was let out early. I will also never forget the bust calls in the afternoon lol.

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I'll never forget the feeling in the pit of my stomach when I saw Sandy switch over to a westerly track and knew it was on track to be at its worst during high tide. Luckily we likely won't see anything like that again in our lives.

Let's hope so, but we could see similar if not greater storm surge flooding with less than a Sandy in the near future as sea levels rise. 

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I highly doubt the wind is a big deal here and the rain will be run of the mill. The beach erosion and high surf is more likely. The core will be well southeast of where it can make a significant impact here.

Yes, that's if you go with the Euro. If the timing of the front is delayed, this will have more of an impact in our area.

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Question in general, as I have limited knowledge of tropical storms. If this storm hits the 40/70 benchmark, like some of our good winter storms do, would this storm produce copious amounts of precipitation for the area? Knowing that tropical storms are warm core/as opposed to cold core storms (the interplay of physics I am unsure of), I was curious if the storm would behave in a similar fashion? Knowing there is a cold front that will sweep this storm away in the pending matter, however if all things were equal to a classic noreaster, I was interested in the dynamic. Thanks in advance and my apologizes if this is the wrong thread.

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I knew we were in trouble when I woke up early Monday morning and I saw the storm in the low 940's. Of course I had to go into work that day but was let out early. I will also never forget the bust calls in the afternoon lol.

I laughed particularly hard at the bust calls, particularly when the center was still hundreds of miles away and winds were still offshore. We had flooding in spots here during the day but it was when the wind switched to SE as high tide roared ashore with the gustiest winds, that it basically became the Apocalypse outside. And the wind/rain was never expected to be the most severe impact.

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Yes, that's if you go with the Euro.  Its ENSEMBLES the GFS the NAM , along with the NHC guidance .   If the timing of the front is delayed, this will have more of an impact in our area.

I fixed that for you .

 

You`re right other than those , there`s really no consensus . 

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This will probably set the record for the best LB surf around the July 4th holiday as this scoots out near of just

SE of the BM. We could see the waves approach 10 ft in Long Beach for a time with a flood of surfers pouring

into town.

The beaches are going to take a pounding, that's for sure. It's concerning that it's ramping up in strength and ticking west. Hurricane Bill was southeast of where this should track and was very damaging to the beaches.

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I'll never forget the feeling in the pit of my stomach when I saw Sandy switch over to a westerly track and knew it was on track to be at its worst during high tide. Luckily we likely won't see anything like that again in our lives.

I'll never forget looking at the devastation as we flew over the tri state area the next morning. My crews' hearts (myself included) literally shattered. Yes, let us hope Sandy does not ever rear her ugly head again, but with the extreme weather as of late.. I bristle with concern.
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The beaches are going to take a pounding, that's for sure. It's concerning that it's ramping up in strength and ticking west. Hurricane Bill was southeast of where this should track and was very damaging to the beaches.

Busy weekend also for the beaches. Not good at all.

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The beaches are going to take a pounding, that's for sure. It's concerning that it's ramping up in strength and ticking west. Hurricane Bill was southeast of where this should track and was very damaging to the beaches.

Bill's strength, size and angle of approach was conductive for large clean waves (good for surfing). The waves associated with Arthur will likely be much smaller and very choppy.
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Question in general, as I have limited knowledge of tropical storms. If this storm hits the 40/70 benchmark, like some of our good winter storms do, would this storm produce copious amounts of precipitation for the area? Knowing that tropical storms are warm core/as opposed to cold core storms (the interplay of physics I am unsure of), I was curious if the storm would behave in a similar fashion? Knowing there is a cold front that will sweep this storm away in the pending matter, however if all things were equal to a classic noreaster, I was interested in the dynamic. Thanks in advance and my apologizes if this is the wrong thread.

The short answer is most likely. As this storm continues its march up the Eastern Seaboard it will begin to become post tropical in nature (losing its tropical characteristics). Arthur will begin to become embedded in within the front which will likewise absorb it's energy and precipitation. At our latitude, the transition is normally mid way if not almost completed. What this means for us is that the wind field expands significantly as does the coverage of precipitation.

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The GFS still has this coming just west of the benchmark. Cape Cod should really monitor Arthur.

The place where the trough should start interacting with Arthur is important and could enhance rain over New England. As the storm goes extratropical that interaction will cause it to grow quite a bit.

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