BuffaloWeather Posted May 5, 2014 Share Posted May 5, 2014 Another nice day here. Gusty east winds, but lots of sun and temps already in the low 60s. Have 84 in the point for Wed and 80 for Thu. With the increasing moisture levels it's gonna feel like May out there. I want 80s with high dews. I'm jealous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted May 5, 2014 Share Posted May 5, 2014 12z GFS and the WRF-NMM short term model both show a nocturnal MCS moving through S Wisconsin/far N Illinois tomorrow night into Wednesday morning. Love those complexes that develop along a warm front, chance for some marginally strong/severe hail, more likely pea size or smaller. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted May 5, 2014 Share Posted May 5, 2014 12z GFS and the WRF-NMM short term model both show a nocturnal MCS moving through S Wisconsin/far N Illinois tomorrow night into Wednesday morning. Love those complexes that develop along a warm front, chance for some marginally strong/severe hail, more likely pea size or smaller. best kind of weather...not too bullish on potential but we're getting there. looks like a nice 5-7 day stretch...highs from the low 60s to low 80s and comfortable sleeping temps at night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted May 5, 2014 Share Posted May 5, 2014 best kind of weather...not too bullish on potential but we're getting there. looks like a nice 5-7 day stretch...highs from the low 60s to low 80s and comfortable sleeping temps at night. Yeah should see some storms develop on the nose of the LLJ/moisture advection late tomorrow night north of the warm front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted May 5, 2014 Share Posted May 5, 2014 Bit cool today, but the sun is out fully now. Looking forward to Wednesday, Thursday and Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted May 5, 2014 Share Posted May 5, 2014 Another chilly day in the N lakes area. Later this week 60 for the first time! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted May 5, 2014 Share Posted May 5, 2014 Another chilly day in the N lakes area. Later this week 60 for the first time! latest_tair.png I could never live there I don't think. You haven't hit 60 degrees yet?!? As much as I enjoy snow I like the warmth equally as much. I need my sun and beach time! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted May 5, 2014 Share Posted May 5, 2014 I could never live there I don't think. You haven't hit 60 degrees yet?!? As much as I enjoy snow I like the warmth equally as much. I need my sun and beach time!Agreed, but there is a reason this place is a vacation destination in the Summer. When it does finally warm, 90 degrees is usually rare this far north and so close the coast. So, while I have to wait a few more weeks for warmth, I escape the miserable heat of Summer, have a refreshing lake breeze everyday after 1:00, and get to enjoy the warm effects of the lake well into September. Then get 12 feet of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted May 5, 2014 Share Posted May 5, 2014 Amazing how the plains were torching yesterday and we sat in a chilly north wind and blue skies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted May 5, 2014 Share Posted May 5, 2014 Pic of the Asperatus clouds this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted May 5, 2014 Share Posted May 5, 2014 More small hail here today with light rain moving through. Very odd, the precip started as straight up small hail before some more rain drops started to fall. There was a legitimate thunderstorm about 10 miles to my north that produced more small hail than what we had here. Must be the low dews and relatively low freezing level allowing this small hail to make it to the ground despite the rather weak nature of the storms...it was hardly raining here but small hail was hitting the ground. It was sort of falling like sleet but couldn't have been. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted May 5, 2014 Share Posted May 5, 2014 Yes PLEASE!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted May 5, 2014 Share Posted May 5, 2014 A taste of summer coming according to Michael Skipper at IWX: GIVEN EXTREMELY HOT CONDITIONS SUNDAY UPSTREAM OVER MISSOURI WITH RECORD HIGHS IN THE 90S...CONCERN FOR MUCH WARMER CONDITIONS THEN THE ONGOING FCST HIGHS. THE CAVEAT IS IF THE COOL MARINE LAYER FROM LAKE ERIE WILL BE ABLE TO MIX OUT. KEPT HIGHS IN THE 80S WEDNESDAY...EXCEPT FOR LOWER 70S FAR NORTHEAST. CLIMATOLOGICAL RECORD HIGHS OF 85F-88F WILL BE APPROACHED THURSDAY. GUT FEELING THE ONGOING FCST HIGHS OF 82F TO 84F MAY NEED TO BE RAISED A LITTLE HIGHER. GGEM had 20*C 850mb temps as far north as Green Bay. That's impressive considering the less than impressive Spring warmth we've had so far and the extremely cold winter we just came off of. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted May 5, 2014 Share Posted May 5, 2014 GGEM had 20*C 850mb temps as far north as Green Bay. That's impressive considering the less than impressive Spring warmth we've had so far and the extremely cold winter we just came off of. If we want storms then we don't want to see 20°C or higher at 850mb, you are approaching cap threshold at that point and being that it isn't mid summer you won't see a cap busted if the 850mb temps are that high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted May 5, 2014 Share Posted May 5, 2014 luckily temps won't get anywhere near that warm, so who cares Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted May 5, 2014 Share Posted May 5, 2014 a couple nice hailers in MT this evening, bet the views are incredible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted May 6, 2014 Share Posted May 6, 2014 luckily temps won't get anywhere near that warm, so who cares At 850mb? Probably not but I wouldn't immediately discount it considering the potential ridge that is looking to set up in the eastern half of the country for those couple of days. Also considering the origin of the air mass is from the southwest too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted May 6, 2014 Share Posted May 6, 2014 At 850mb? Probably not but I wouldn't immediately discount it considering the potential ridge that is looking to set up in the eastern half of the country for those couple of days. Also considering the origin of the air mass is from the southwest too. I think he means 20C at Green Bay is a bit unrealistic. I could definitely see the warm front making it well north of Chicago and likely Milwaukee, but I don't think it will make it past Green Bay with the cold dense airmass that these cold Great Lakes are providing, and the normal caveat that comes with storms firing up in MCS form and dragging the warm front back south a bit temporarily. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted May 6, 2014 Share Posted May 6, 2014 I think he means 20C at Green Bay is a bit unrealistic. I could definitely see the warm front making it well north of Chicago and likely Milwaukee, but I don't think it will make it past Green Bay with the cold dense airmass that these cold Great Lakes are providing, and the normal caveat that comes with storms firing up in MCS form and dragging the warm front back south a bit temporarily. 850mb warm front doesn't = surface warm front. I wasn't talking about the surface warm front anyways... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted May 6, 2014 Share Posted May 6, 2014 850mb warm front doesn't = surface warm front. I wasn't talking about the surface warm front anyways... They may not be the same, but their location is likely to be correlated (they are likely to be shifting north around the same rate, and I've been watching the GFS and its ensembles for days, the model has rarely achieved getting 20C temps at 850 to even Milwaukee, let alone Green Bay, which I guess is what Alek was pointing out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted May 6, 2014 Share Posted May 6, 2014 My dad said it was hailing in Ann Arbor today. I'm guessing that was graupel, since it was around the 50 degree mark and not convective. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted May 6, 2014 Share Posted May 6, 2014 They may not be the same, but their location is likely to be correlated (they are likely to be shifting north around the same rate, and I've been watching the GFS and its ensembles for days, the model has rarely achieved getting 20C temps at 850 to even Milwaukee, let alone Green Bay, which I guess is what Alek was pointing out. I think it was just a passing comment about if it verified, I didn't say it would, I just made mention that there will be a strong ridge in the east. As for the warm front location, with the low going into Canada you better believe the warm front is going to blast through Milwaukee, especially considering the strong LLJ that will be accompanying this system. Also don't believe what the GFS is showing for surface temperatures, it is going to be significantly low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted May 6, 2014 Share Posted May 6, 2014 Picked up 0.01" of rain today for 0.04" on the month....A dark sky though made for a nice background to the flowering trees. The magnolias are very late and ragged this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted May 6, 2014 Share Posted May 6, 2014 rain removed from point, not surprising as setup wasn't great Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted May 6, 2014 Share Posted May 6, 2014 86 in the point for tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted May 6, 2014 Share Posted May 6, 2014 86 in the point for tomorrow. classic midwest...too cold to too hot with maybe a week of nice weather in the middle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted May 6, 2014 Share Posted May 6, 2014 classic midwest...too cold to too hot with maybe a week of nice weather in the middle Rochester, MN still hasn't hit 70F. NWS here shows 71F/76F on Thurs...but very high chances of storms...should be humid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted May 6, 2014 Author Share Posted May 6, 2014 Was hoping for some Tstorms tonight, but it looks like the best action will be over C WI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted May 6, 2014 Share Posted May 6, 2014 Spot of 85°+ showed up in NE IL & SE MI on the 6z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted May 6, 2014 Share Posted May 6, 2014 CFS has the next 4 weeks well below normal too.... This is the only bright spot in an overall terrible 4 weeks coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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