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May 2014 General Discussion


Brewers

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12z GFS and the WRF-NMM short term model both show a nocturnal MCS moving through S Wisconsin/far N Illinois tomorrow night into Wednesday morning.  Love those complexes that develop along a warm front, chance for some marginally strong/severe hail, more likely pea size or smaller.

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12z GFS and the WRF-NMM short term model both show a nocturnal MCS moving through S Wisconsin/far N Illinois tomorrow night into Wednesday morning.  Love those complexes that develop along a warm front, chance for some marginally strong/severe hail, more likely pea size or smaller.

 

 

best kind of weather...not too bullish on potential but we're getting there.

 

looks like a nice 5-7 day stretch...highs from the low 60s to low 80s and comfortable sleeping temps at night.

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best kind of weather...not too bullish on potential but we're getting there.

 

looks like a nice 5-7 day stretch...highs from the low 60s to low 80s and comfortable sleeping temps at night.

 

Yeah should see some storms develop on the nose of the LLJ/moisture advection late tomorrow night north of the warm front. 

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I could never live there I don't think. You haven't hit 60 degrees yet?!? As much as I enjoy snow I like the warmth equally as much. I need my sun and beach time!

Agreed, but there is a reason this place is a vacation destination in the Summer. When it does finally warm, 90 degrees is usually rare this far north and so close the coast. So, while I have to wait a few more weeks for warmth, I escape the miserable heat of Summer, have a refreshing lake breeze everyday after 1:00, and get to enjoy the warm effects of the lake well into September. Then get 12 feet of snow. :P
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More small hail here today with light rain moving through. Very odd, the precip started as straight up small hail before some more rain drops started to fall. There was a legitimate thunderstorm about 10 miles to my north that produced more small hail than what we had here. Must be the low dews and relatively low freezing level allowing this small hail to make it to the ground despite the rather weak nature of the storms...it was hardly raining here but small hail was hitting the ground. It was sort of falling like sleet but couldn't have been.

 

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A taste of summer coming according to Michael Skipper at IWX:

 

GIVEN EXTREMELY HOT CONDITIONS SUNDAY UPSTREAM

OVER MISSOURI WITH RECORD HIGHS IN THE 90S...CONCERN FOR MUCH WARMER

CONDITIONS THEN THE ONGOING FCST HIGHS. THE CAVEAT IS IF THE COOL

MARINE LAYER FROM LAKE ERIE WILL BE ABLE TO MIX OUT. KEPT HIGHS IN

THE 80S WEDNESDAY...EXCEPT FOR LOWER 70S FAR NORTHEAST.

CLIMATOLOGICAL RECORD HIGHS OF 85F-88F WILL BE APPROACHED THURSDAY.

GUT FEELING THE ONGOING FCST HIGHS OF 82F TO 84F MAY NEED TO BE

RAISED A LITTLE HIGHER.

 

GGEM had 20*C 850mb temps as far north as Green Bay.

 

That's impressive considering the less than impressive Spring warmth we've had so far and the extremely cold winter we just came off of.

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GGEM had 20*C 850mb temps as far north as Green Bay.

 

That's impressive considering the less than impressive Spring warmth we've had so far and the extremely cold winter we just came off of.

If we want storms then we don't want to see 20°C or higher at 850mb, you are approaching cap threshold at that point and being that it isn't mid summer you won't see a cap busted if the 850mb temps are that high.

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luckily temps won't get anywhere near that warm, so who cares

 

At 850mb? Probably not but I wouldn't immediately discount it considering the potential ridge that is looking to set up in the eastern half of the country for those couple of days. Also considering the origin of the air mass is from the southwest too.

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At 850mb? Probably not but I wouldn't immediately discount it considering the potential ridge that is looking to set up in the eastern half of the country for those couple of days. Also considering the origin of the air mass is from the southwest too.

 

I think he means 20C at Green Bay is a bit unrealistic.  I could definitely see the warm front making it well north of Chicago and likely Milwaukee, but I don't think it will make it past Green Bay with the cold dense airmass that these cold Great Lakes are providing, and the normal caveat that comes with storms firing up in MCS form and dragging the warm front back south a bit temporarily.

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I think he means 20C at Green Bay is a bit unrealistic.  I could definitely see the warm front making it well north of Chicago and likely Milwaukee, but I don't think it will make it past Green Bay with the cold dense airmass that these cold Great Lakes are providing, and the normal caveat that comes with storms firing up in MCS form and dragging the warm front back south a bit temporarily.

850mb warm front doesn't = surface warm front. I wasn't talking about the surface warm front anyways...

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850mb warm front doesn't = surface warm front. I wasn't talking about the surface warm front anyways...

 

They may not be the same, but their location is likely to be correlated (they are likely to be shifting north around the same rate, and I've been watching the GFS and its ensembles for days, the model has rarely achieved getting 20C temps at 850 to even Milwaukee, let alone Green Bay, which I guess is what Alek was pointing out.

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They may not be the same, but their location is likely to be correlated (they are likely to be shifting north around the same rate, and I've been watching the GFS and its ensembles for days, the model has rarely achieved getting 20C temps at 850 to even Milwaukee, let alone Green Bay, which I guess is what Alek was pointing out.

I think it was just a passing comment about if it verified, I didn't say it would, I just made mention that there will be a strong ridge in the east.

 

As for the warm front location, with the low going into Canada you better believe the warm front is going to blast through Milwaukee, especially considering the strong LLJ that will be accompanying this system. Also don't believe what the GFS is showing for surface temperatures, it is going to be significantly low.

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