jm1220 Posted March 31, 2014 Share Posted March 31, 2014 I don't believe it was a surprise at all. It was well modeled and for a few days. Euro has had this band for several runs. The problem was that people on this site specifically turned stupid negative and then did not allow constructive talk about this potential without being ridiculed. It was always modeled and it was always snow. No one predicted the heavy snow we're seeing now-most predictions I saw/read had some sleet/snow mixing in at the very end. These work out sometimes but often don't, it all depends on where and how strong the dynamics are. This time the stars aligned and Long Island is getting pounded. Wish I could have been home a little longer to see it, the snow only really began as I had to leave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 31, 2014 Share Posted March 31, 2014 Very impressive for those folks, only saw a few snowflakes further west into NJ. I'm okay with it since even a few inches would be gone by the end of the day anyway (the beauty of late March/Early April snows). Monmouth and parts of LI have been the region's snowiest locales as of late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 31, 2014 Share Posted March 31, 2014 KISP 311300Z 33013G23KT 1/8SM R06/1000V1600FT +TSSN FG OVC003CB 01/M01 A2982 RMK AO2 TSB00 OCNL LTGICCG OHD TS OHD MOV S P0000 $ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted March 31, 2014 Share Posted March 31, 2014 2" here S+ as of 9:15. 32F 0.39" new in the bucket since noon yesterday (not including the snow). 3.44" storm total so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted March 31, 2014 Share Posted March 31, 2014 Green tube did a very good job pointing this out last night. It got me checking out the models to find as well that they supported it, but I was doubtful it'd stick. Good job man! And enjoy this LI'ers!! Not a flake here in NENJ Sent from my iPhone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tdp146 Posted March 31, 2014 Share Posted March 31, 2014 Closed upper lows often have surprise snow patches like these. I remember in late October 2005 in State College, PA we had heavy snow under one of these for hours when even places in upstate NY and south of us had rain. These are very dynamic systems that can bring down cold air if you're under a heavy band with good enough precip rates. we did? Did I throw snowballs at you in east halls? Why don't I remember this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 31, 2014 Share Posted March 31, 2014 No one predicted the heavy snow we're seeing now-most predictions I saw/read had some sleet/snow mixing in at the very end. These work out sometimes but often don't, it all depends on where and how strong the dynamics are. This time the stars aligned and Long Island is getting pounded. Wish I could have been home a little longer to see it, the snow only really began as I had to leave. It was on the models. Especially the HRRR, RAP, NAM, RGEM and Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim Posted March 31, 2014 Share Posted March 31, 2014 ...amazing gradient..skies brightening..37* here in eastport..had mostly light rain w/ some snow mixing in at times..what a difference a few miles will make. ..(port jeff/stony brook looking to get slammed with a heavy band coming southward) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 31, 2014 Share Posted March 31, 2014 we did? Did I throw snowballs at you in east halls? Why don't I remember this? Oct 25th, 2005, look it up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.I.Pete Posted March 31, 2014 Share Posted March 31, 2014 NWS updated totals, Central Suffolk the big winner: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted March 31, 2014 Share Posted March 31, 2014 http://wwc.instacam.com/instacamimg/CNTRM/CNTRM_l.jpg islip webcam Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 31, 2014 Share Posted March 31, 2014 It was on the models. Especially the HRRR, RAP, NAM, RGEM and Euro. This is the kind of event that the high-resolution models should excel on. I have to say I'm impressed, particularly with the RGEM's and HRRR's handling of this event. The others i.e., 4 km NAM the ECMWF, did quite well, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
liwxfan Posted March 31, 2014 Share Posted March 31, 2014 Getting pounded here in Mount Sinai! At least 2 inches and snowing hard!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted March 31, 2014 Share Posted March 31, 2014 http://wwc.instacam.com/instacamimg/CNTRM/CNTRM_l.jpg islip webcam Sent from my iPhone Thats a stunning pic. Eyeballing 3''+ already Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 31, 2014 Share Posted March 31, 2014 Central LI will be getting slammed again over the next hour or so. The band seems to be widening and intensifying a bit more now. You guys should ask me to jinx you a snowstorm more often Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted March 31, 2014 Share Posted March 31, 2014 It goes to show you that if it wants to snow, IT WILL snow. A little while ago, point pleasant NJ saw a few flakes while Worcester MA saw rain. Pretty impressive Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 31, 2014 Share Posted March 31, 2014 This is the kind of event that the high-resolution models should excel on. I have to say I'm impressed, particularly with the RGEM's and HRRR's handling of this event. The others i.e., 4 km NAM the ECMWF, did quite well, too. The 00z Euro was too far NW with the best accumulations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted March 31, 2014 Share Posted March 31, 2014 Thats a stunning pic. Eyeballing 3''+ already Yeah I'd agree. About 3". Snow also looks to be coming down 2-3" an hour Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 31, 2014 Share Posted March 31, 2014 Sagtikos Parkway down to Bay Shore looks to be getting annihilated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted March 31, 2014 Share Posted March 31, 2014 3.4" as of 9:40. That's 1.5" in the past 25 minutes. You do the math. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted March 31, 2014 Share Posted March 31, 2014 Even though returns lessened. back to snow again in Kew gardens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim Posted March 31, 2014 Share Posted March 31, 2014 Sagtikos Parkway down to Bay Shore looks to be getting annihilated. ..traffic cams are amazing..the 'sag' is definitely getting slammed!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 31, 2014 Share Posted March 31, 2014 Even though returns lessened. back to snow again in Kew gardens Check the radar again, Western Suffolk County is about to get destroyed. 50+dbz echo's are moving in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted March 31, 2014 Share Posted March 31, 2014 3.4" as of 9:40. That's 1.5" in the past 25 minutes. You do the math. Thats beautiful: 3+ an HOUR! enjoy. ( though Im a bit jealous here in queens ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 31, 2014 Share Posted March 31, 2014 Congrats to the Central Long Island folks this morning. This is almost like an inverted trough type jackpot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 31, 2014 Share Posted March 31, 2014 Check the radar again, Western Suffolk County is about to get destroyed. 50+dbz echo's are moving in. He's talking about Queens. Radar doesn't look to have anything meaningful from western Nassau on west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 31, 2014 Share Posted March 31, 2014 He's talking about Queens. Radar doesn't look to have anything meaningful from western Nassau on west. If you look at the KOKX radar you can see a sneaky little band clipping parts of Queens and western Nassau. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 31, 2014 Share Posted March 31, 2014 The 00z Euro was too far NW with the best accumulations. ecmwf_snow_24_neng_5.png I agree. It is kind of like summer convection where the idea of thunderstorm activity is easier to forecast than exact placement. Some of last night's HRRR runs did well, at least well enough to impress me. Still, all in all, I think the event is overperforming, but that's some of the fun with late-season events where dynamics can wind up a little stronger and the snow can really thump for a time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted March 31, 2014 Share Posted March 31, 2014 Props to those who pointed this out last night on the models and actually gave them some credence. You LI guys are ending on a high note after a fairly brutal stretch of no snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted March 31, 2014 Share Posted March 31, 2014 Even though returns lessened. back to snow again in Kew gardens I think you gave me a seizure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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