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March 29-30th moderate nor'easter


Mikehobbyst

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I don't believe it was a surprise at all. It was well modeled and for a few days. Euro has had this band for several runs.

The problem was that people on this site specifically turned stupid negative and then did not allow constructive talk about this potential without being ridiculed.

 

It was always modeled and it was always snow.

No one predicted the heavy snow we're seeing now-most predictions I saw/read had some sleet/snow mixing in at the very end. These work out sometimes but often don't, it all depends on where and how strong the dynamics are. This time the stars aligned and Long Island is getting pounded. Wish I could have been home a little longer to see it, the snow only really began as I had to leave.

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Very impressive for those folks, only saw a few snowflakes further west into NJ. I'm okay with it since even a few inches would be gone by the end of the day anyway (the beauty of late March/Early April snows). 

 

Monmouth and parts of LI have been the region's snowiest locales as of late. 

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Closed upper lows often have surprise snow patches like these. I remember in late October 2005 in State College, PA we had heavy snow under one of these for hours when even places in upstate NY and south of us had rain. These are very dynamic systems that can bring down cold air if you're under a heavy band with good enough precip rates.

we did? Did I throw snowballs at you in east halls? Why don't I remember this?
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No one predicted the heavy snow we're seeing now-most predictions I saw/read had some sleet/snow mixing in at the very end. These work out sometimes but often don't, it all depends on where and how strong the dynamics are. This time the stars aligned and Long Island is getting pounded. Wish I could have been home a little longer to see it, the snow only really began as I had to leave.

 

It was on the models. Especially the HRRR, RAP, NAM, RGEM and Euro.

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...amazing gradient..skies brightening..37* here in eastport..had mostly

light rain w/ some snow mixing in at times..what a difference a few miles will make.

..(port jeff/stony brook looking to get slammed with a heavy band coming southward)

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The 00z Euro was too far NW with the best accumulations.

 

attachicon.gifecmwf_snow_24_neng_5.png

I agree. It is kind of like summer convection where the idea of thunderstorm activity is easier to forecast than exact placement. Some of last night's HRRR runs did well, at least well enough to impress me. Still, all in all, I think the event is overperforming, but that's some of the fun with late-season events where dynamics can wind up a little stronger and the snow can really thump for a time.

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