NaoPos Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 thisvs this: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Back dat @$$ up. - what? It's pass midnight.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 GFS still offshore,but slightly west..h5 looks improved tho comparing 90 vs 96h Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 The trend is my friend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 The trend is my friend. Not this time I believe... our luck can only go so far... the house wins eventually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 It would appear the surface is a bit torchy, not missing out on much...dat late March climo. Adding insult to injury, the vast majority of QPF falls during daylight. Verbatim 0z GFS is a non-sticking wet snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 The trend is my friend. Will be interesting to see if this is really a trend or just some wobbles. The last 3 runs: Of course temps could still be an issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Change the middle one to RUSH and your good. La Villa Strangiato has gotta be single most technically sound/ perfect rock and roll song of music ever produced... those guys are super human.. I love the 93 talk... that is the storm that officially kicked off this hobby/ habit for me... one of the things that stands out is the number of fatalities attributed to the storm... it was like two or three hundred. it is sad.. but phenomenal.. and maybe there wasn't wide spread three foot plus amounts... but the 18"+ contour... I dont think that has been rivaled east coast wise in recorded history. If we see something anywhere close to that with this storm...we could be get what TN/OH got in that storm... even if it is east... but I dont think that the potential is anywhere near that of 93... I remember the NWS was issuing high confidence forecast for foot plus snow fall like 3-5 days out. And the guidance back then was now where near what we have today... that was a crazy signal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Random Chaos Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 I really like how much better organized the 00z GFS is vs the 18z GFS. CMC also looking like a strong nor'easter. Now just tick west another notch or two! If the organization signature sticks for the next couple model runs, we could be golden. Wonder what kind of coastal erosion north us us will get though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 22, 2014 Author Share Posted March 22, 2014 I really like how much better organized the 00z GFS is vs the 18z GFS. CMC also looking like a strong nor'easter. Now just tick west another notch or two! zz If the organization signature sticks for the next couple model runs, we could be golden. Wonder what kind of coastal erosion north us us will get though... GEFS precip field looks much more west than 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TyY89 Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 I recently started following the threads here for winter storms and I have learned a lot. I've never even considered posting anything b/c I know far less than ya'll, but I just read something from Mike Masco that I haven't seen mentioned here. That is, the ocean temperatures and their impact on the track of the storm. If I understand correctly, the water is currently very cold immediately off-shore but then quickly warms up. He said that a storm tends to tap into warm water for energy until it becomes large enough to sustain itself. Because of the current profile of temperatures in the Atlantic he believes a coastal storm is still likely despite the models showing more of an OTS solution. My immediate question was this: Do the various models not account for this effect that ocean temperatures can have on the track? I'm interested to hear what ya'll have to say about this. Hoping for a lot of snow down here in RVA to make up for the most frustrating winter of my life! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 If Canada can't HECS us no one can. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 I really like how much better organized the 00z GFS is vs the 18z GFS. CMC also looking like a strong nor'easter. Now just tick west another notch or two! If the organization signature sticks for the next couple model runs, we could be golden. Wonder what kind of coastal erosion north us us will get though... Hopefully a whole s-load of coastal erosion. Tornadoes in Florida would be good for us too... as progged now though.. it doesnt look like it gets it act together fast enough for that. Anyone ever read about the 11 foot storm surge from the Derecho in Florida from the 93 storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 My immediate question was this: Do the various models not account for this effect that ocean temperatures can have on the track? I'm interested to hear what ya'll have to say about this. Mesoscale models will handle that sort of thing better than globals, but we're not close to the ideal time frame for meso's yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 I recently started following the threads here for winter storms and I have learned a lot. I've never even considered posting anything b/c I know far less than ya'll, but I just read something from Mike Masco that I haven't seen mentioned here. That is, the ocean temperatures and their impact on the track of the storm. If I understand correctly, the water is currently very cold immediately off-shore but then quickly warms up. He said that a storm tends to tap into warm water for energy until it becomes large enough to sustain itself. Because of the current profile of temperatures in the Atlantic he believes a coastal storm is still likely despite the models showing more of an OTS solution. My immediate question was this: Do the various models not account for this effect that ocean temperatures can have on the track? I'm interested to hear what ya'll have to say about this. Hoping for a lot of snow down here in RVA to make up for the most frustrating winter of my life! I dont think that the ocean temps really affect the track that much.. for that you want to look at the larger scale steering mechanism in the atmosphere like areas of high pressure, fronts, mid to upper level troughs, upper level lows, etc ... I think, but I am not 100% sure though that the contrasting Ocean temps will enhance baroclinic instability..that is if it take the right track... which needs to be a little further west than currently progged. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Euro that good huh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MetalCapsFan Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Anyone ever read about the 11 foot storm surge from the Derecho in Florida from the 93 storm? Yeah, the non-wintery part of the storm was pretty incredible. Check out the 'Impact surrounding the Gulf of Mexico' section here: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/1993_Storm_of_the_Century Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLPressure Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Euro that good huh It is going to be one wound up fish storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tanarus4u2 Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Final call, 100-120 mph wind gust in cape cod. Crap snowfall amounts everyone in this forum. Bigger impact by damage then Sandy (in billions). 948 will pwn you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 From WPC- THE CROSS-POLAR FLOW WHICH HAS PERIODICALLY REACHED INTO NORTHAMERICA SINCE JANUARY SEEMS DESTINED FOR AT LEAST ONE MORETRANSPORT OF ARCTIC AIR INTO MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERNUNITED STATES TUESDAY. WITH HEIGHTS STILL LOW ACROSS THE EAST INTHE WAKE OF THE COLD BLAST DURING SUNDAY AND MONDAY IN THE SHORTRANGE, THE STAGE WILL BE SET FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW AND ICEWITH THE CLIPPER SYSTEM HERALDING TUESDAY'S OUTBREAK. IT SEEMSTHAT THE CLIPPER WILL GAIN ENOUGH AMPLITUDE TO SIPHON SOMESUBTROPICAL MOISTURE AND ENERGY CROSSING THE SOUTHEAST FROM THEGULF OF MEXICO EARLY TUESDAY. MOST OF THE GLOBAL NUMERICAL MODELSINDICATE THAT THE SLIGHT NEGATIVE-TILT TO THE CLIPPER WILL SET UPA DUMBBELLING WITH THE GULF ENERGY TOWARD EVENING TUESDAYSOMEWHERE OFFSHORE BETWEEN CAPE HATTERAS AND THE ATLANTIC"BENCHMARK" OF 40N/70W. THIS BINARY INTERACTION--OR FUJIWHARAEFFECT--IS A PARTICULARLY ENERGIZING PHENOMENON. BY EARLYWEDNESDAY MORNING, A SUB-970MB SURFACE CYCLONE IS LIKELY NEAR THEBENCHMARK AFTER THE BOMBING PHASE. HOW FAR SOUTHWEST THE BOMBINGOCCURS IS CRITICAL FOR THE SENSIBLE WEATHER FROM THE CAROLINAS TONEW ENGLAND. THE EARLIER/FARTHER SOUTHWEST, THE GREATER THECHANCES FOR SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER FROM THE CAROLINAS ANDSOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC ALL THE WAY THROUGH MAINE.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Mount Holly AFD- THE MODELS DID NOT BACK OFF, IN FACT BECAME MORE BULLISH, WITHTHE OFFSHORE LOW FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. ANYONE WHO HASPLANS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY ADVERSE WEATHER TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY AREADVISED TO FOLLOW THE TRACK OF THIS LOW IN THE DAYS AHEAD. THISCOULD VERY WELL BRING MULTI FACETED CONCERNS FROM HEAVY SNOW TOWINDS AND TIDAL FLOODING.THE GFS AND ECMWF INITIALIZATION DIDNT IMPRESS AND WHILE THE ERRORSWERE NOT BLATANT, THERE WERE MULTIPLE 10-20M ONES IN CANADA ANDALASKA CENTERED ON THE REX RIDGE BEING STRONGER AND RIDGING ENTERINGBC. THE SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVES ARE ENTERING THE DENSER RAOBNETWORKS AND WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE NEXT ONE TO TWO SOUNDINGRUNS TO SEE IF THE 00Z TREND TOWARD MORE AMPLIFICATION CONTINUES.THERMALLY AND CLOSER TO HOME A WRF-NMMB AND GFS BLEND SEEMED TOINITIALIZE THE BEST. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Final call, 100-120 mph wind gust in cape cod. Crap snowfall amounts everyone in this forum. Bigger impact by damage then Sandy (in billions). 948 will pwn you. Dude, C'mon. Sandy was moving inland at a monthly high tide and daily high tide and was moving inland from well out to sea from east to west and made landfall in the most populated area in the country. Yes, this storm may do some tremendous damage, but more than Sandy? That statement is beyond ridiculous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 This is going to be a big boy low, and anyone writing it off as a fish storm at this point, based on what they see on the current models verbatim, might be surprised(and wrong). The trends on last night's runs were better(if one wants an impactful event over land). Todays runs shall be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 This is going to be a big boy low, and anyone writing it off as a fish storm at this point, based on what they see on the current models verbatim, might be surprised(and wrong). The trends on last night's runs were better(if one wants an impactful event over land). Todays runs shall be interesting. I agree. How often this year (or any year) does a storm with such potency end up taking a due north route and not be closer to the coastline. I just don't think it will do that. I think it will be right up the coast or further east than presently progged. I think the timing for the rapid intensification is wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 I agree. How often this year (or any year) does a storm with such potency end up taking a due north route and not be closer to the coastline. I just don't think it will do that. I think it will be right up the coast or further east than presently progged. I think the timing for the rapid intensification is wrong. Yes and yes. There should be no towel throwing at least until tomorrow. No reason to think we don't have some favorable trends still yet to come. Looking forward to my modeled snow mayhem today. ;-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacintoshPro Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 06z GFS looks okay, but to warm for stickage when the actual precip is falling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Yes and yes. There should be no towel throwing at least until tomorrow. No reason to think we don't have some favorable trends still yet to come. Looking forward to my modeled snow mayhem today. ;-) does anyone know if the sw responsible for the storm have arrived onshore and been sampled correctly?? I read Mt Holly discussion and have my answer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 06z GFS looks okay, but to warm for stickage when the actual precip is falling. That wont be a problem if it bombs closer to the coast/further south. The key is getting into the heavier precip on the west side, and cooling the surface will not be a problem if that occurs. The entire column is cold. GFS isnt there yet, nor is the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 FWIW, tiny western shift in overnight euro ensembles. Now a few members with snow. I counted 8/50 with 2"+ but only one solid hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 can anyone explain why the shift east has predominated on this particular storm?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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