chris87 Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 You're a met, so I assume you have an intelligent argument to support your viewpoint, even if not backed up with research and numbers--why not post your views, maybe someone else here does have additional data or ideas to support or contest the viewpoint, aka discussion. too many mets/scientists like to drop by with anecdotes -- it's a bad habit *that's a statement on a scientific community as a whole, not here...btw* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 i'm not sure who gets more but plenty of cases of explosive cyclogenesis have occurred in the pacific -- you don't even have to go back that far, look at the storm that affected CA in late Feb. -- sub-970 mb low. data sampling is important but not sure if we went out to the pacific and launched a bunch of radiosondes/dropsondes that it would lead to much -- especially at this lead time. We have several studies for WSR that demonstrate that these types of supplemental observations basically do not even move the needle when assimilated into state of the art NWP/DA systems. One of the papers based on the ECMWF model is published in MWR, the other study is internal. We have a lot of redundancy in our current observing system. Couple that with the fact that NWP and DA have come a long way in the past decade, and the paradigm has really shifted. Having said all of that, more (good) observations are always better. There are certain phenomena for which targeting is still likely to be important. I am working with some collaborators on demonstrating the impact of our NOAA GIV dropsondes for TC track prediction in the NCEP GFS. We are looking closely at two cases: Isaac 2012 and Karen 2013. Preliminary results will be presented at the upcoming tropical conference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 We have several studies for WSR that demonstrate that these types of supplemental observations basically do not even move the needle when assimilated into state of the art NWP/DA systems. One of the papers based on the ECMWF model is published in MWR, the other study is internal. We have a lot of redundancy in our current observing system. Couple that with the fact that NWP and DA have come a long way in the past decade, and the paradigm has really shifted. Having said all of that, more (good) observations are always better. There are certain phenomena for which targeting is still likely to be important. I am working with some collaborators on demonstrating the impact of our NOAA GIV dropsondes for TC track prediction in the NCEP GFS. We are looking closely at two cases: Isaac 2012 and Karen 2013. Preliminary results will be presented at the upcoming tropical conference. nice -- i'm no atmospheric DA expert but i figured if targeting could show some significant impacts, it'd be tropical forecasting, so that's cool to hear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLPressure Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 The GEFS individual members are not so hot for DC. A couple give us some snow but for the most part the storm really gets wound up tight as it moves up the coast, bypassing DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 The first thing I'd do to really study reliability of models here is to eliminate the 70% (or more) of the time when we have a ridge, and focus on the 30% (or less) of the time when we actually have systems moving in from the Pacific. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 The "need more sampling" thing is seemingly overplayed IMO. A lot of big name mets mention it too. Obviously more data is better than less but satellites provide so much already. I have wondered about how any storms are well forecast for the west coast or many other places if it was entirely true as well. WPAC forecasts are pretty good considering there is no recon as one example -- though clearly our own recon of the Atlantic is helpful vs none. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 looking at the Day 4 maps off Plymouth, I'll be shocked if this run is good for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Doesn't hate SE VA. Good luck getting a snowstorm in SE VA in late March. Difficult enough to get it to snow there in late January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLPressure Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 I'm out till the Euro clobbers us again. This isn't the one to bring you back in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 This isn't the one to bring you back in. Nope, still out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLPressure Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Road trip to Nova Scotia? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 I'm with Ian. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Can we move on to spring now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 21, 2014 Author Share Posted March 21, 2014 game set winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 21, 2014 Author Share Posted March 21, 2014 unbelievable at how we cant get a snow producing noreaster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Can we move on to spring now? Looks like we finally do next weekend! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 21, 2014 Author Share Posted March 21, 2014 JB will say until the players get on the field. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 unbelievable at how we cant get a snow producing noreaster That is the one thing that remains elusive. Those storms for snow have been wide right for three years now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 game set winter latest winter cancel on record? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 21, 2014 Author Share Posted March 21, 2014 latest winter cancel on record? hard to cancel when you get a winter storm warning every 10 days over a 5 month period Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Looking a lot like this is wanting to swing right, which I honestly don't mind. Less mud would be a good thing when the temps warm up afterwards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
twax1 Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 http://mashable.com/2014/03/21/spring-blizzard-may-hit-new-york-boston/?utm_cid=mash-com-fb-main-link Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Not ready to call it yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Cant cancel a season thats already expired Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Looking a lot like this is wanting to swing right, which I honestly don't mind. Less mud would be a good thing when the temps warm up afterwards. I would take a little moisture to soak in the lawn fertilizer thats going down tomorrow. Snow is same as rain this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 http://mashable.com/2014/03/21/spring-blizzard-may-hit-new-york-boston/?utm_cid=mash-com-fb-main-link doh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 http://mashable.com/2014/03/21/spring-blizzard-may-hit-new-york-boston/?utm_cid=mash-com-fb-main-link I miss the days when only mets and the rest of us weather freaks knew about NCEP and model discussions. Too much info accessible by the ignorant + social media is a disaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 even if it's a miss, it's way too early to fold your hand on this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 http://mashable.com/2014/03/21/spring-blizzard-may-hit-new-york-boston/?utm_cid=mash-com-fb-main-link For those that believe that hyping Winter Storms has gotten severely out of control, more evidence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 I miss the days when only mets and the rest of us weather freaks knew about NCEP and model discussions. Too much info accessible by the ignorant + social media is a disaster. social media is the public in general so you need to take the CAP lock off the "+" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.