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St. Paddy's Day east coast snow storm 2014-or maybe the St Paddys' hangover storm?

weathafella

By weathafella,
in New England

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cja1987

cja1987

Posted
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GGEM, if it happens, has an early March of last year feel to it. Was that 3/6??? Not saying the placement of features/synoptic evolution is the same but we are talking long duration easterly flow over some nice cold air. If that solution verifies verbatim, we have the potential to do really, really well in E MA and you can throw model QPF out the window if something like that gets going.

 

I don't buy the GFS, suppress 3/17 and go on to torch 3/19 in under 48hrs? It could happen but Id argue for a middle ground and stay cautiously optimistic based on 12Z EC and 00Z GGEM. If we can get the EC to phase in what it is getting going over the midwest to the 3/17 system and draw it out for our area over 2 days, I dont see the GGEM scenario being all that far fetched considering the players on the field. EC is key, if it starts its way toward something more significant with the upcoming 00Z run, this thing might be starting to grow legs. If it goes back to an OTS solution, red flags. It usually does not waffle much as we know, a hiccup or 2 yes, here today DC 5 days from now yes but usually no run to run craziness.

Hope nobody gets too excited based on my ramblings, not to the point of "feeling it" and still in the what can go wrong mode. If the 3-4 week trend holds, this will find a way to be a big goose egg for SNE.

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cja1987

cja1987

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Do you think NYC/LI and New England areas lock into an Arctic cold -15 F degree departure pattern on average from 3/16 - 4/05 on average ?  Do you think the GFS and ECMWF show a HECS signal on the 12Z today ?

 

 

Next few weeks look cold, unmitigated Arctic cold locking in? No, I think we see saw between normal-ish and cold.

 

Doubt the HECS signal but who knows? It seems like at least one OP model run wants to show a HECS per cycle (00Z or 12Z only, I dont really bother with 06 or 18Z myself). I'm favoring a glancing blow, fairly low impact deal south of the pike or a complete wiff. Equal chances. I put some stock in a more robust solution but the EC is gonna have to lock on soon and start to get some support for me to bite. It is strange to see the EC jumping between wide right and a decent hit like this. It usually trends slowly. I'm not nearly as attentive to or as good at picking apart the models as many of the mets here so take with a grain of salt but I can't for the life of me remember a time where I had less faith in models. We are supposed to be getting better and I feel like I could trust the models far more 5+ years ago than today.

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moneypitmike

moneypitmike

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I'm sticking to SNE had seen its last snowfall of the season. Threat after threat just vanishes despite everyone saying its a great pattern. Guess what ., it's not. It's just a cold dry pattern. In March that's awful. Yes the Ggem is tossed

 

I won't be suprised if we've seen the last significant snow of the season, though there's till plenty of time for that to change.

 

However, it's tough to claim a cold-dry pattern on the heels of more than .5" of rain.  Perhaps a bit less down there and more further north.  The future on the other hand looks pretty dry.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

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I'm sticking to SNE had seen its last snowfall of the season. Threat after threat just vanishes despite everyone saying its a great pattern. Guess what ., it's not. It's just a cold dry pattern. In March that's awful. Yes the Ggem is tossed

 

 

Not going with your ace model, the GGEM?

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

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and these big storm signals which last for several days in the extended before gradually vanishing seem to have even some of the most seasoned fooled or at least temporarily sucked in.....going on a month now without more than a coating of snow......

 

 

All you can go on in the medium range beyond about 5-6 days is longwave patterns since the longwave patterns are what the models will get correct most often in that time range....they aren;t going to get small details right. Unfortunately small details have a large impact on the sensible wx.

 

Its the equivalent of having a 3-sided dice and if we roll 1 or 2, a storm happens, if we roll 3, then we miss. We keep missing recently by getting unlucky and rolling 3s.. One storm missed south, the next one missed north. That's what probabilistic forecasting is. You keep playing the probbabilities, the 1s and 2s will win out in a pattern like this. Unfortunately for us, we aren't running a Monte Carlo simulation to get us to the promised land on the probabilities....we only have a 3-4 week shot.

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