Geos Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 this still sounds right I like that take to. LAF could be a western end jackpot locale or somewhere real close to there. And I do think the GFS has more under it's belt like Chicago Storm said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 NAM is the best. It always shows the most snow for MBY so I like that model the most... JMA guy myself. But it's letting me down right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 this still sounds right So you seem to think the storm cuts quicker/harder then i do atleast? I was thinking more west to east across IL/IN/OH ( Thus LAF/TOL/CLE ) and not making the cut till further east. Which yeah could include YYZ as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 IND looks iffy to me at this point. I'd rather be north of there for the best stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 IND looks iffy to me at this point. I'd rather be north of there for the best stuff. Yep. Matter of fact, I'd rather be north of here for the best snows. Kinda digging something like a Logansport-Fort Wayne line...maybe 6-8" with potential upside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 I am enjoying the discussion and conjecture concerning the model discrepancies, and I know it seems cliche, but this morning's long term forecaster at IWX says it best: "WITH WAVE OF INTEREST NOT SET TO COME ONSHORE UNTIL MONDAY...SOLUTIONS WILL CONTINUE TO VARY." In other words, it will be another 24 hours before the extent of phasing and resultant strength/track will be accurately determined. Until then, it's just a matter of what each model does with limited data. In the meantime, I like where I sit, far enough north to stay out of a mix and far enough south to not get fringed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 The 18z RGEM at hour 54 has the SLP in the same position as the NAM(over STL). The H5 look is similar although the vort that gets drawn from the rockies looks a bit more progressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 I am enjoying the discussion and conjecture concerning the model discrepancies, and I know it seems cliche, but this morning's long term forecaster at IWX says it best: "WITH WAVE OF INTEREST NOT SET TO COME ONSHORE UNTIL MONDAY...SOLUTIONS WILL CONTINUE TO VARY." In other words, it will be another 24 hours before the extent of phasing and resultant strength/track will be accurately determined. Until then, it's just a matter of what each model does with limited data. In the meantime, I like where I sit, far enough north to stay out of a mix and far enough south to not get fringed. It might be even longer, the piece this system phases with out of Canada won't get into the US until Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 The 18z RGEM at hour 54 has the SLP in the same position as the NAM(over STL). The H5 look is similar although the vort that gets drawn from the rockies looks a bit more progressive. Where do you get the RGEM at 54 hours? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 It might be even longer, the piece this system phases with out of Canada won't get into the US until Tuesday. Isn't the sampling network better over Canada than the Pacific? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 Where do you get the RGEM at 54 hours? http://meteocentre.com/models/models.php?lang=en&map=na&mod=gemreg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 Isn't the sampling network better over Canada than the Pacific? yes and even over the pacific, it's still being sampled just not by the raob network...i think wait until sampling is the new high is 2 mb stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 http://meteocentre.com/models/models.php?lang=en&map=na&mod=gemreg That's nice to know... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 http://meteocentre.com/models/models.php?lang=en&map=na&mod=gemreg gracias. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 GEFS are useless. Back to the SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 Isn't the sampling network better over Canada than the Pacific? Yes but not as good as the US, so it will be sampled some but not nearly as well as it would in the US. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 gracias. Just discovered that recently. Pretty cool, eh! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 yes and even over the pacific, it's still being sampled just not by the raob network...i think wait until sampling is the new high is 2 mb stronger. It is about the density of the sampling, sure there are means of being sampled in the Pacific but nothing even close to the RAOB network in US. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 2-5" at present in my point forecast for Elkhart/Goshen area at present thinking from IWX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YHM Supercell Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 Where do you get the RGEM at 54 hours? Check out weather.gc.ca/vizaweb for any Canadian model data you need. Best source imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 Overall Id say positive trends today. Early yesterday most of the GEFS and the OP of course were showing NO snow here, now I belueve they all show SOME snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 Overall Id say positive trends today. Early yesterday most of the GEFS and the OP of course were showing NO snow here, now I belueve they all show SOME snow. So despite the back and forth has the overall trend been towards a more northwest solution? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 So despite the back and forth has the overall trend been towards a more northwest solution? Aside from the 18z NAM, the track of the storm and precipitation placement has actually been fairly consistent. Despite the back and forth, the general LAF-TOL/CLE-PIT/BUF corridor at this point remain ground zero. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 Day 3 HPC outlook. Probability of 4" and 6". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 Aside from the 18z NAM, the track of the storm and precipitation placement has actually been fairly consistent. Despite the back and forth, the general LAF-TOL/CLE-PIT/BUF corridor at this point remain ground zero. There's the answer. Ride the consensus. I had thought it might have been considerably further southeast for awhile, but I could be wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 Time for the NAM to venture back into reality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 21z SREF mean is up to just shy of 7" for DTW. Very nice spread too. Most of then range from 0.3" to 13.6", and there's even one loon that gets up to 19". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 Time for the NAM to venture back into reality. My expectation also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YHM Supercell Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 Unless I need my eyes checked...I think I see 9.9 inch SREF mean for YYZ. Very large spread though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 21z SREF mean is up to just shy of 7" for DTW. Very nice spread too. Most of then range from 0.3" to 13.6", and there's even one loon that gets up to 19". Same mean and similar spread here. The lone wolf one is 15.5" here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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