Radioman Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 Nice hit for S. MI this run. At least compared to 0z and 6z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 I don't know...I don't see why you'd check out at all for GTA with this one, at this stage. But if the NAM is the only thing keeping your interest alive, pull the plug. At this point any non-EURO support for this being anything in my former BY is much appreciated. Even the dregs of the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radioman Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 ? Looks like 1000 on the OK/KS line. It's more like 997 or 998 but Instant Weather Map looked like it was a bit farther north than on the KS/OK line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 ? Looks like 1000 on the OK/KS line. That northern stream energy near superior is coming in stronger compared to 6z. Trough axis a little sharper/further west as well. Hopefully the start of a trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 12z NAM, shockingly, doesn't look that far off from the 0z Euro...at least for here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 Looks like Tim will not be denied his 0.4"...and then some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 That northern stream energy near superior is coming in stronger compared to 6z. Trough axis a little sharper/further west as well. Hopefully the start of a trend. Yeah, it's definitely improved. We've gone from whiff to graze job. The question is is there future further upside? I'd say probably not. edit: meh...better than a graze job. Probably a good 0.25" QPF. Still a real thread the needle if there ever was one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 0z Euro pretty much the pinnacle run for here. No where to go but down now, haha. Other than a few blips, Euro and its ensembles have been insistent on this storm being a bigger deal for the region. Have to like that idea. Finer details and who gets hit is still very much TBD. IND saying no big deal...going with the old warm ground defense. Oy vey. I'm more concerned with the phasing/system evolution/track than warm ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 Yeah, it's definitely improved. We've gone from whiff to graze job. The question is is there future further upside? I'd say probably not. I would agree that it doesn't have much further NW to budge. The ridge axis is looking way east of where we typically want it along the west coast. The good thing is that the AO/NAO are positive and we have a weakening sfc high moving in from the plains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 Looks like Tim will not be denied his 0.4"...and then some. We'll see. Regardless of solution, it's going to be one of those tricky changeover kind of deals for here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 I'm more concerned with the phasing/system evolution/track than warm ground. 100% agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 Best snow just north of LAF on the 12z NAM but we're in flux anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 I would agree that it doesn't have much further NW to budge. The ridge axis is looking way east of where we typically want it along the west coast. The good thing is that the AO/NAO are positive and we have a weakening sfc high moving in from the plains. I'd take the 12z NAM/0z EURO. Enough to snow to get to 100 consecutive days of snowcover and burying the old record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 Don't forget that models will be coming out an hour later. It got me as I had a moment where I was wondering why the GFS wasn't coming out yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 Best snow just north of LAF on the 12z NAM but we're in flux anyway. Yep, not concerned with the 12z NAM output. Gimme that track and QPF, and we'll do well enough. Don't forget that models will be coming out an hour later. It got me as I had a moment where I was wondering why the GFS wasn't coming out yet. lol, me too. Hate this time of year for looking at the models. 0z Euro is a complete non-starter for me now. Unless a big big dog is on the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 Final call for Detroit: 2-4" with a michsnowfreak bullseye. Congrats to the TOL crew!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 Final call for Detroit: 2-4" with a michsnowfreak bullseye. Congrats to the TOL crew!!! It's the NAM, but it looks pretty good for Detroit from what I can tell. Oh, and lol @ extreme gradient over DVN cwa again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 It's the NAM, but it looks pretty good for Detroit from what I can tell. Oh, and lol @ extreme gradient over DVN cwa again. Tight gradient though. Goes from nothing where dmc76 is to a michsnowfreak bullseye. And it is the NAM. Given the seasonal trends for these waves to remain open/progressive, yet somehow still produce modestly for Detroit (see the strung out POS last weekend the models also struggled with where it picked up 3-5"), I feel pretty confident in my call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 That's quite the split on that map above^. haha Members to the east and south, enjoy the snow Tuesday night! Only a 40% chance here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 Impressive thermo boundary setting up with this thing. NAM has St. Louis around 75 Tuesday, with much of northern IL in the 30s. Gonna be seeing a lot of these sharp gradients this spring me thinks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radioman Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 GFS coming in stronger/N so far as well. 998 in C. KS through HR 51 compared to 1002 on the KS/OK border HR 63: Sub 1000 L or so near STL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radioman Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 Chicago gets hit decent on the GFS. 996 in S. IN at HR 66 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 wagons north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 Vorts are much more phased in at hour 72. Starting to intensify quickly over central ohio. Edit: 6"+ amounts get into the city as ratios are nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 wagons north lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blue60007 Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 I'm more concerned with the phasing/system evolution/track than warm ground. Ground is still frozen solid here and unless the next two days really do a number on that, not sure there's much concern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smoof Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 12z GFS snow map... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 very minor timing changes are going to produce large shifts, just gonna have to watch the trends. IDY-DTW-YYZ still look ideal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 very minor timing changes are going to produce large shifts, just gonna have to watch the trends. IDY-DTW-YYZ still look ideal IDY? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 IDY? Indy, my bad. obv, LAF should do ok as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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