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March 11-12th Winter Storm


Chicago Storm

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Anyone see the am AFD from GRR?

 

:popcorn::weenie:


LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM EST SUN MAR 9 2014

I AM BECOMING MORE CONCERNED ABOUT THE SYSTEM FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY GIVING AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN 1/3 OF OUR CWA 2 TO 4
INCHES OF WET SNOW. ALL OF THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED NORTH WITH THE
SYSTEM ON THE LATEST (09/00Z) RUNS. FOR NOW I WILL REMAIN
CONSERVATIVE BUT WILL STILL INCREASE POP TO LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT IN
THE I-94 AREA. THIS SHOULD BE MOSTLY A SNOW EVENT (TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY) AS THE COLD AIR BECOMES WELL ESTABLISHED BY
THEN. BEYOND THAT THE WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN QUITE INTO THE NEXT
WEEKEND. IT WILL BE COLDER THAN NORMAL WED INTO THURSDAY WITH A
WARMING TREND INTO THE COMING WEEKEND UNTIL THE NEXT COLD FRONT
COMES THROUGH DURING THE DAY SATURDAY (DRY EVENT AT THIS POINT).

WHAT WE HAVE THREE JET STREAMS TRYING TO MERGE IN THE TUESDAY TO
WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME. THERE THE ARCTIC STREAM OF AIR OVER NORTHEAST
CANADA SENDING A SHORTWAVE TOWARD HUDSON BAY. NEXT IS THE MAIN
BRANCH OF THE POLAR JET SENDING A PACIFIC ORIGIN SHORTWAVE OVER THE
WESTERN RIDGE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. FINALLY THERE IS A SOUTHERN
STREAM SYSTEM (CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO THIS
MORNING) THAT GETS PICKUP UP BY THE DIGGING PACIFIC SHORTWAVE. SINCE
THE SYSTEM WILL JUST BE COMING TOGETHER TUESDAY NIGHT IT WILL BE IN
THE DEVELOPING PHASE AND SHOULD BE DECENT PRECIPITATION PRODUCER.

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Anyone see the am AFD from GRR?

 

:popcorn::weenie:

 

Yes, I saw that.

 

Really, it's all just a matter of...

 

1. Getting a favorable track.

 

2. Getting the system to deepen at a favorable pace in time.

 

The former is going to be easier said than done (unless we can get an Indianapolis to Cleveland track).

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Yes, I saw that.

 

Really, it's all just a matter of...

 

1. Getting a favorable track.

 

2. Getting the system to deepen at a favorable pace in time.

 

The former is going to be harder said than done (unless we can get an Indianapolis to Cleveland track).

 

 

All about timing. At this point i don't think anything is off the table just yet. You guys just to the south and east obviously have a better shot for something very decent but yeah i don't think further nw ( of here even ) is off the table yet especially if this thing phases like that a bit sooner which is very possible still.

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seems like a pretty basic description, what exactly is the weenie part?

 

Triple phaser potential, in so many words.

 

With the SE ridge being virtually non-existent, any triple phase (if it happens) more than likely won't happen soon enough to benefit most of us. 

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seems like a pretty basic description, what exactly is the weenie part?

 

 

3 jets coming together? You know about Jan 78/March 93 correct?

 

Not saying that will happen either and thus the weenie icon. That is for the potential of it being suggested in that AFD.

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3 jets coming together? You know about Jan 78/March 93 correct?

 

Not saying that will happen either and thus the weenie icon. That is for the potential of it being suggested.

 

 

3 jets try to come together all the time...they don't give any indication it's a real possibility.

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3 jets coming together? You know about Jan 78/March 93 correct?

 

Not saying that will happen either and thus the weenie icon. That is for the potential of it being suggested in that AFD.

 

The latest AFD backed off on the 3 jets coming together aspect, but it's still somewhat bullish on some decent snows at least making it NW to the I-94 corridor.

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The latest AFD backed off on the 3 jets coming together aspect, but it's still somewhat bullish on some decent snows at least making it NW to the I-94 corridor.

 

Oh i knew it would back off from that. Much of it has to do with the forecaster who was on this morning. He tends to go and or offer the more extreme possibilities such as that ( unlike most others at this office )  and thus how i knew ( now others will as well..Thus the weenie icon.. I thought a few knew this about him? Guess not. )  what he was getting at.

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Oh i knew it would back off from that. Much of it has to do with the forecaster who was on this morning. He tends to go and or offer the more extreme possibilities such as that ( unlike most others at this office )  and thus how i knew ( now others will as well..Thus the weenie icon.. I thought a few knew this about him? Guess not. )  what he was getting at.

 

Oh I understand.

 

But the problem with forecasters mentioning those extreme possibilities and going into too much detail over them is that the general public may somehow get wind of it, and then when the extreme possibilities don't happen, it's hell on earth for the forecasters. That's why most of the tend to steer away from doing so. 

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Oh I understand.

 

But the problem with forecasters mentioning those extreme possibilities and going into too much detail over them is that the general public may somehow get wind of it, and then when the extreme possibilities don't happen, it's hell on earth for the forecasters. That's why most of the tend to steer away from doing so. 

 

 

I don't think most of the general public will understand that at all or even those who are not familiar with this guy. The media is the ones to worry about.

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I don't think most of the general public will understand that at all or even those who are not familiar with this guy. The media is the ones to worry about.

 

Yeah, but then you have those folks (like that idiot back during the February 5th storm suggesting an historic 30" blizzard) who will read those types of NWS discussions and see the model solutions, then broadcast said extreme possibilities for the general public to hear/see.

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Yeah, but then you have those folks (like that idiot back during the February 5th storm suggesting an historic 30" blizzard) who will read those types of NWS discussions and see the model solutions, then broadcast said extreme possibilities for the general public to hear/see.

 

If people are that stupid to buy into such hype from a no name then they get what is coming to them.

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If people are that stupid to buy into such hype from a no name then they get what is coming to them.

 

I completely agree with what you're saying in theory.

 

But we've both seen otherwise in actuality.

 

For example, these are the same folks who will see a forecast for a 40% chance of rain, expect it to rain, and then when it doesn't rain, blame the weatherman.

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