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March 11-12th Winter Storm


Chicago Storm

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I dunno. GEM backed off too.

GEM was mostly northern stream on 12z run so it was pretty much the same. As for the GFS the whole evolution doesn't make sense, it has cutoff after cutoff diving into the southwest some of which go as deep as the Baja, plus none of these systems act like a kicker either, just cutoff after cutoff through the run. I find that a bit unbelievable.

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GEM was mostly northern stream on 12z run so it was pretty much the same. As for the GFS the whole evolution doesn't make sense, it has cutoff after cutoff diving into the southwest some of which go as deep as the Baja, plus none of these systems act like a kicker either, just cutoff after cutoff through the run. I find that a bit unbelievable.

 

 

Good points..

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GEM was mostly northern stream on 12z run so it was pretty much the same. As for the GFS the whole evolution doesn't make sense, it has cutoff after cutoff diving into the southwest some of which go as deep as the Baja, plus none of these systems act like a kicker either, just cutoff after cutoff through the run. I find that a bit unbelievable.

 

12z GEM did partially phase that southern stream wave though by about 144. 0z is a complete orphaning of the southern stream.

 

http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/495_100.gif

 

That piece of energy over NM kicked out on the 12z run.

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Still a huge amount of potential with this that can't be ignored. The models have been atrocious this season and seem to be getting worse, so I think the potential is what matters at this point. It very well could go either way, but at least SOME portion of the subforum has decent potential for a thumping with this kind of setup.

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As for the 00z euro ensembles.. Stronger/further north vs 12z. The mean is about as strong as the OP with a track near the river and thus north of the OP run. A number of it's members have a stronger system then the OP run.

 

The .50+ qpf line shifted from a IND to Toledo line on the 12z to a Chicago to Saginaw line.

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most regional afds are pretty zzzzz on the period

 

What are they supposed to say 5-6 days out, when there are wide ranging model solutions? Not sure you can make much of it.

 

From the ones I care about, IND and IWX say they don't know yet...which is perfectly fine at this point.

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6z GFS looked a lot better ensemble wise compared to 0z. About half showed barely a storm but the other half looked solid.

 

 

FWIW, 6z GEFS...more or less all or nothing with the phase and storm potential...sounds/looks like the euro/ggem ensembles are more bullish on phasing and subsequent slp development as well. On the positve front...more phased solutions continue to advertise a healthy defo zone

 

 

post-163-0-32382600-1394199450_thumb.jpg

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I think the key to this thread is potential. Fun to watch the model development and analysis and that's about it. Let's wait till 48hrs to make any serious first calls. 

 

As winter draws to a close it would be great to have one epic event to put a nice explanation point on this season of awesomeness.

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I think the key to this thread is potential. Fun to watch the model development and analysis and that's about it. Let's wait till 48hrs to make any serious first calls. 

 

As winter draws to a close it would be great to have one epic event to put a nice explanation point on this season of awesomeness.

The number of strong solutions in ensembles clearly points out that there is clearly potential...but everything needs to come together for potential to be realized. We could easily see nothing. But what a bang we would send this winter out with if we get a big storm. I honestly never thought 1880-81 would be in jeopardy. The closest any winter got to it was 15.6" LESS snow...until this year. To see the potential that still exists is amazing.

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