Giant signal for mid month. This was noted in the teleconnectors earlier this week

[CoastalWx]

I think that's too early to say, but with the PV sort of lifting up instead of pressing south...seems like OTS/suppressed is not as much of  a fear like it was last week.

[ORH_wxman]

Better chance of mix or OTS with this one??

 

 

Way too early to tell...we are a week away.

 

 

But the OP run was actually near the flatter end of ensemble guidance on the spaghetti plots...most members are deeper with the trough to our west

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

But people have got to keep in mind that the ensemble can change too. This doesn't mean a ton yet. It just means that the ensembles favor a pretty deep solution at the moment...but that moment is a week out, so take that for it it's worth.

[CoastalWx]

In the "take it for what it's worth" moment, I think my biggest concern is something developing too early along the front. For example, a low developing over PA as the front slices through SNE. That pretty much would be nothing for SNE. It's obviously way early...but you don't want to see that.

[TalcottWx]

Euro came way south and actually is perfect for SNE..I hope that isn't the start of a trend twds DC again

A major storm suppressed south would be against climo for this time of the year I would think. I would bet pingers are more of a threat?

[CoastalWx]

A major storm suppressed south would be against climo for this time of the year I would think. I would bet pingers are more of a threat?

 

You can get suppression any time of the year. It's just that this time of year...storms are usually juiced and that it leads to storms not being completely crushed.

[TalcottWx]

You can get suppression any time of the year. It's just that this time of year...storms are usually juiced and that it leads to storms not being completely crushed.

So moral of my post is its more likely its not south you would tend to agree?

[codfishsnowman]

i will never ever forget the april 03 storm that slipped by to the south and the forecasts were for a raging 8 to 12 inch snowstorm with possible blizzard conditions.....2 or so inches with all kinds og warnings and headlines, just a tremendous bust for central ct....i dont even think those totals were reached on s coast and li, maybe half foot....i followed that one for days....

[CoastalWx]

So moral of my post is its more likely its not south you would tend to agree?

I guess it depends where you are coming from and the type of pattern we are in. IMHO outlined earlier what the bigger concern was.

[toller65]

GYX morning AFD:

 

THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR LOW PRESSURE EXITING THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES ON TUESDAY. STILL MUCH UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE TRACK
AND TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT WITH GULF OF MEXICO AND ATLANTIC
MOISTURE...THIS SHOULD BE A RELATIVELY SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER
SYSTEM FOR PARTS OF THE EAST COAST.

[8611Blizz]

Well Joe Joyce is not impressed with this system. On necn he just mentioned that it most likeky will be passing snow showers or squalls but did say it was worth watching.

[SJonesWX]

Well Joe Joyce is not impressed with this system. On necn he just mentioned that it most likeky will be passing snow showers or squalls but did say it was worth watching.

I don't know why the on air mets even discuss these thing so far in advance. this thing is 6-7 days away. i have noticed it a lot this winter especially

[butterfish55]

Well since they all seem to do 7 day extended forecasts now, I guess he has to mention it.  They should just go back to 5 day extended forecasts.   

 

Not that it matters, I'm really looking forward to reading the pros' thoughts and analysis on this system in the coming days, then whatever happens,  lets go right into Spring....I'm ready to golf

[dryslot]

12z GFS coming around to this threat this run

[HoarfrostHubb]

GFS def looks better.... I dunno, though... the way it is portrayed today seems like it could slip east

[dryslot]

06z was off the carolinas, 12z Off the coast around the delmarva, 7 days out, Its in a great spot right now, Signal remains strong, Details to be worked out as we get closer in

[Heisy]

Meh, GFS is a snowstorm, but it keeps splitting the shortwave out west, and just shows a modest one coming east, it could still snow decently, but far from a "monster". 

[dryslot]

I hope know one really is setting the bar that we are going to get an HECS out of this as modeled right now, Should just be happy if we end up with a moderate event late in the season

[ORH_wxman]

I hope know one really is setting the bar that we are going to get an HECS out of this as modeled right now, Should just be happy if we end up with a moderate event late in the season

 

 

Yeah despite the nice signal on most guidance, I think people should be in the "what can go wrong?" camp right now when we are 6-7 days out.

 

The answer to the question is "a lot".

 

 

That said, I think at this moment, you have to like what is shown on the multi-model ensemble guidance.

[Chrisrotary12]

O no!! We are talking about individual model runs.  NOOOOO!!!!

[JC-CT]

Yeah despite the nice signal on most guidance, I think people should be in the "what can go wrong?" camp right now when we are 6-7 days out.

 

The answer to the question is "a lot".

 

 

That said, I think at this moment, you have to like what is shown on the multi-model ensemble guidance.

 

After the last two weeks, I think everyone up here understands what can go wrong.

 

Highzenberg is from Philly, where it snows once or twice a week, every week.

[dryslot]

Yeah despite the nice signal on most guidance, I think people should be in the "what can go wrong?" camp right now when we are 6-7 days out.

The answer to the question is "a lot".

That said, I think at this moment, you have to like what is shown on the multi-model ensemble guidance.

Just seeing it being modeled run to run at day 7 is really all that needs to be said, Your right, Plenty can go wrong , Don't need to look much further back then the last couple threats to see what can happen, Just need to monitor the trends, Won't start taking this one seriously until at least over the weekend when the models will be running an hour later which sucks

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Typhoon Tip]

O no!! We are talking about individual model runs.  NOOOOO!!!!

 

Exactly ... 

 

The intent of this thread was never to rabble rouse.  It was to enlighten as to early signal detection, warranted upon observing a strongly correlated MJO-PNA-NAO appeal.  

 

That says nothing about individual model runs, much less the individual systems on those model runs. Fact of the matter is .. the signal reaches it brightest on the 15th of the month as was discussed.  That's 9 days away, of which, the first 5 can and probably will feature model cycles that swap out the timing, and specifics, while the whole of the pattern reaches its greatest amplitude/potential, Only then we will be see any honing.

 

If we want to be fuss-budgets, the GFS has like 4 systems through the 18th... but these are all computer-based chaos enhanced hallucinations.  Yeah, the Euro/ensembles are in fact more focused on a D8/9, but I still think it unwise to count on that -- for now, we are still in pattern recognition mode. 

 

I understand the need though. People want to actually see something on the charts to substantiate all of this, but unfortunately ... that will take time.  

[HoarfrostHubb]

O no!! We are talking about individual model runs.  NOOOOO!!!!

Kiss of death...

[HoarfrostHubb]

 

If we want to be fuss-budgets, the GFS has like 4 systems through the 18th... but these are all computer-based chaos enhanced hallucinations.  Yeah, the Euro/ensembles are in fact more focused on a D8/9, but I still think it unwise to count on that -- for now, we are still in pattern recognition mode. 

Excellent way to put it.

 

I do like the way you frame the overall "big picture" view of this. Alas, I don't have a clue on how to get started acquiring the data nevermind interpreting it.

 

Right now, all I can do is look at a GFS picture and say "ooooohhhhh....pretty colors...." 

[ORH_wxman]

Its possible that we get two events out of this time period. Something on the 3/12-13 timeframe and then another in the 3/15-16 timeframe.

 

Sometimes we'll see events prosper a few days after an initial larger event if the larger scale pattern is still favorable...i.e. go back to signals like Jan 2005...1/26 featured a moderate event 3 days on the heels of the major event. Jan 12, '96 featured a moderate event 4 days after the blizzard, Mar 9, 2001 featured a moderate event 2-3 days after the big one, Mar 12, 2005 featured a moderate/heavy event 4 days after the big deep low with the flash freeze on 3/8....you get the idea.

[CoastalWx]

GEFS are great looking.

[Typhoon Tip]

Its possible that we get two events out of this time period. Something on the 3/12-13 timeframe and then another in the 3/15-16 timeframe.

 

Sometimes we'll see events prosper a few days after an initial larger event if the larger scale pattern is still favorable...i.e. go back to signals like Jan 2005...1/26 featured a moderate event 3 days on the heels of the major event. Jan 12, '96 featured a moderate event 4 days after the blizzard, Mar 9, 2001 featured a moderate event 2-3 days after the big one, Mar 12, 2005 featured a moderate/heavy event 4 days after the big deep low with the flash freeze on 3/8....you get the idea.

 

Yup -- mentioned this yesterday, that this could come in multiples...  The NAO was the wild card; still is really, where the more recent GFS runs are being cagey about it. They were better before.  CDC still sees a mid-month plunge in the index, taking it from +2 to maybe -.5 SD across a 4 or 5 day span. So we'll see...

 

Point is ... if we can get some blocking down stream while the MJO-PNA amplitude sync up, then a more coherent single entity is more plausible. If the flow remains open up there ... then we may end up with just another nickle-dime pattern;  different than the one before, but having similar result.  

 

It's just the year of the screamin' flow.  What can I say ... won't seem to relent for any reason.  The atmosphere needs a couple of doses of Ritalin.   ha

[Heisy]

When I keep mentioning the "split" of the waves, this is what I mean. Note how the one piece heads east and ends up forming the eventual low...

 

 

 

Check out yesterday's 12z EURO, & the 00z EURO before that to see what happens if they don't split...

 

We could still cash in on a snowstorm as long as the lead wave remains kind of weak...the GGEM shows what happens if that lead wave is too strong (inland). Unless the EURO goes way against the grain, it looks like this is what the models want to see happen, which means we will likely not see that "MECS/HECS" the old EURO runs were showing, but we could still cash in on a solid snowstorm (especially you guys up north)

 

I do like the idea of maybe 2 separate storms, if the energy left behind is strong enough. 

[Ginx snewx]

Its possible that we get two events out of this time period. Something on the 3/12-13 timeframe and then another in the 3/15-16 timeframe.

Sometimes we'll see events prosper a few days after an initial larger event if the larger scale pattern is still favorable...i.e. go back to signals like Jan 2005...1/26 featured a moderate event 3 days on the heels of the major event. Jan 12, '96 featured a moderate event 4 days after the blizzard, Mar 9, 2001 featured a moderate event 2-3 days after the big one, Mar 12, 2005 featured a moderate/heavy event 4 days after the big deep low with the flash freeze on 3/8....you get the idea.

March 05

[CoastalWx]

GEFS are one consolidated healthy looking system.