powderfreak Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 That snow does not look wet at all except maybe the very onset. ITs like a powder blizzard with temps in the teens once it gets going, lol. That's sort of what I was wondering, but maybe they are talking about just central VT at their southern zones...but even there it doesn't look all the wet based on SFC temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzard24 Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 like has happen this winter trend ecwmf is now south and other models will trend tonight and monday . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 I was surprised to read this from BOX in their 4pm AFD: CSTAR ENSEMBLE SENSITIVITY PLOTS INDICATE NORTHERN STREAM WILL BE MORE OF A DRIVER WITH THIS SYSTEM...SO POSSIBILITIES STILL RANGE FROM A TREND EVEN FARTHER N IF UPPER TROUGH SHARPENS MORE...OR FARTHER S AND OFFSHORE IF IT REMAINS MORE PROGRESSIVE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 Well we have to accept our friends for what they are. 18Z nam is really wonderful for sne...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 I was surprised to read this from BOX in their 4pm AFD: CSTAR ENSEMBLE SENSITIVITY PLOTS INDICATE NORTHERN STREAM WILL BE MORE OF A DRIVER WITH THIS SYSTEM...SO POSSIBILITIES STILL RANGE FROM A TREND EVEN FARTHER N IF UPPER TROUGH SHARPENS MORE...OR FARTHER S AND OFFSHORE IF IT REMAINS MORE PROGRESSIVE. It could go north or south. Shocking...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 It could go north or south. Shocking...lol. I guess I don't know what they mean by offshore. I would think a whiff OTS is all but off the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 I was surprised to read this from BOX in their 4pm AFD: CSTAR ENSEMBLE SENSITIVITY PLOTS INDICATE NORTHERN STREAM WILL BE MORE OF A DRIVER WITH THIS SYSTEM...SO POSSIBILITIES STILL RANGE FROM A TREND EVEN FARTHER N IF UPPER TROUGH SHARPENS MORE...OR FARTHER S AND OFFSHORE IF IT REMAINS MORE PROGRESSIVE. The fast moving flow aorund the base of the vortex is going to be problematic for guidance pretty late into this system most likely...so anyone within 50 miles of "in the game" once we get to tomorrow will still have to watch trends. How far south that high pressure presses is the biggest single key in this event right now. I think there is enough evidence now that we are not going to get a completely unphased solution...its going to be at least a partial phase which should bring a sginificant system to the northeast...now its up to the northern vort lobe. There's going to be nuances too in the phase in the central US too, but those will be second fiddle to the vort lobe up north...obviously we'll have to watch both, but extra attention up near James Bay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 Well we have to accept our friends for what they are. 18Z nam is really wonderful for sne...lol.cmc Ens are a blizzard speaking of friends what did your whack Unk say? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
educate Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 the first 2 glances the NAM has taken for this event bring snow to much of sne. Well we have to accept our friends for what they are. 18Z nam is really wonderful for sne...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 Well we have to accept our friends for what they are. 18Z nam is really wonderful for sne...lol. Puts us on the edge up here...wallops ORH-BOS and north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 cmc Ens are a blizzard speaking of friends what did your whack Unk say? Ukie is pretty south, it was mostly or all snow for pike northward...prob transitioning to a lot of snow for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 Ukie is pretty south, it was mostly or all snow for pike northward...prob transitioning to a lot of snow for you. hopefully Jerry picked up his Valium on the way home Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 I guess I don't know what they mean by offshore. I would think a whiff OTS is all but off the table. To me it's all about the ridge in NW Canada and how far south that PV lobe digs ahead of the s/w moving through the Midwest. Like Will said, it's probably going to at least partially phase. But if you look at NW Canada, some models really wanted to dig that PV lobe south as strong jet energy dives south on the backside of that feature. When you have strong winds pushing on tthe backside of a trough...stronger than winds on the east side, it causes it to dig and slow down. That's what the euro op did. Another option is for the s/w's to phase more and pump up heights on the East Coast, That will deflect the PV lobe coming south from James Bay, like a hair follicle on Kevin's head. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 Nice snowy hit for the south coast on the good ol' NMM model. Lots of options out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 Nice snowy hit for the south coast on the good ol' NMM model. Lots of options out there. That model has no credibility at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 That model has no credibility at this range. lol, it has no credibility at 12 hours out....I just found it interesting that it even has that option still on the table. The UKMET was really far south too, but much stronger. Would one assume the global models will have a better handle on this than the meso-models, even as we get closer in? It seems like there are too many moving parts for the meso-models to really grasp this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 lol, it has no credibility at 12 hours out....I just found it interesting that it even has that option still on the table. The UKMET was really far south too, but much stronger. Would one assume the global models will have a better handle on this than the meso-models, even as we get closer in? It seems like there are too many moving parts for the meso-models to really grasp this. Meso models should be useful for the low level thermal profiles once we get really close...but only in like the final 24 hours or something. I'd certianly trust global guidance outside of 24h. I don't think any global models have anything that suppressed. The Ukie and JMA were pretty suppressed, but not that much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 Could NAVGEM 12 z going SE of benchmark have been a red flag for these shifts south? I know the old NOGAPS had a SE bias, but thought they improved upon that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 To me it's all about the ridge in NW Canada and how far south that PV lobe digs ahead of the s/w moving through the Midwest. Like Will said, it's probably going to at least partially phase. But if you look at NW Canada, some models really wanted to dig that PV lobe south as strong jet energy dives south on the backside of that feature. When you have strong winds pushing on tthe backside of a trough...stronger than winds on the east side, it causes it to dig and slow down. That's what the euro op did. Another option is for the s/w's to phase more and pump up heights on the East Coast, That will deflect the PV lobe coming south from James Bay, like a hair follicle on Kevin's head. Good analysis from you and Will today. We will wait and see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 Meso models should be useful for the low level thermal profiles once we get really close...but only in like the final 24 hours or something. I'd certianly trust global guidance outside of 24h. I don't think any global models have anything that suppressed. The Ukie and JMA were pretty suppressed, but not that much. Has the JMA been improving at all? Or is it still mostly a side-show? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 Could NAVGEM 12 z going SE of benchmark have been a red flag for these shifts south? I know the old NOGAPS had a SE bias, but thought they improved upon that. NAVGEM near the BM is like the Euro over BUF.. that's amped for that model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 I don't really see a any noticeable value in that run of the NAVGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 18z GFS did tick south a bit. Seemed like the Hudson bay lobe was pressing a bit more south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 s/w was a little weaker in the lower ohio valley this run as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 18z GFS did tick south a bit. Seemed like the Hudson bay lobe was pressing a bit more south.looks good for at least 12" here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 Meh, didn't like that one as much but real close to a big heavy wet snow from ORH northward...especially MPM to Hubb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 Meh, didn't like that one as much but real close to a big heavy wet snow from ORH northward...especially MPM to Hubb. Shouldn't you be focusing on Mon/Tue? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 Meh, didn't like that one as much but real close to a big heavy wet snow from ORH northward...especially MPM to Hubb. No issues here lol, Looks to be a wintery week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 looks good for at least 12" here No it doesnt. You flip to rain around 00z Thu....then flip back to snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 No issues here lol, Looks to be a wintery week Yeah that's a great solution for you. I'd take it, but to be honest like 18 hours of 0.1"-0.25" melted every 6-hours is like watching paint dry, lol. But that's a storm for this season, haha, true warning events are hard to come by...it does still get up near 1/2" of QPF over 24 hours, so can't complain. Still time left, but I think we are locking in on the bigger totals snow threat zone...like you to Dendrite/S.NH to S.VT. The positives are that the H7 low still looks really far NW on the GFS, and is generally a decent location for us, so hopefully there'd be some higher ratio banding in that. That stuff just rots over a large portion of New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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