Hoosier Posted June 15, 2014 Share Posted June 15, 2014 This has been a rather pathetic display so far today. Forget severe, we're having trouble getting anything more than isolated cells going. Even the hi-res/convection allowing models seem to have been overdone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OntarioChaser Posted June 16, 2014 Share Posted June 16, 2014 Recent model guidance has me very excited for Tuesday in SW Ontario. Most definitely will be out chasing. There appears to be good potential for a significant event. The atmosphere is primed with an ideal combo of param's. KGRR mentioning possible sustained progressive derecho into Lower Mi. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 16, 2014 Share Posted June 16, 2014 If I had to bet on it I'd say there's a decent chance of something fairly significant somewhere in the subforum in the next few days. Details are up in the air as usual but this smells like one of those times where a higher end slight or even a moderate risk type event could evolve with little notice. Between Tuesday and Wednesday, Tuesday would seem to be the preferred day on paper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 16, 2014 Share Posted June 16, 2014 If I had to bet on it I'd say there's a decent chance of something fairly significant somewhere in the subforum in the next few days. Details are up in the air as usual but this smells like one of those times where a higher end slight or even a moderate risk type event could evolve with little notice. Between Tuesday and Wednesday, Tuesday would seem to be the preferred day on paper. MI and possibly ON looking decent on Tuesday with that s/w (I believe it's the same one responsible for the potential on Monday) moving through the area with high instability. Any backing of the surface winds towards the SSW is going to ramp up the directional shear and speed shear already looks near adequate (although I'd like to see stronger deep layer flow). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted June 16, 2014 Share Posted June 16, 2014 The models are certainly looking a bit more robust for Tuesday. The severe probs on the SPC SREF are significantly increased across MN-WI from previous runs. However, the GFS shows quite a bit of CIN to overcome, despite the NAM looking a bit more trigger-happy. It will definitely be a day to watch and I suspect we'll probably get a Day 2 SLGT in the coming hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted June 16, 2014 Share Posted June 16, 2014 The models are certainly looking a bit more robust for Tuesday. The severe probs on the SPC SREF are significantly increased across MN-WI from previous runs. However, the GFS shows quite a bit of CIN to overcome, despite the NAM looking a bit more trigger-happy. It will definitely be a day to watch and I suspect we'll probably get a Day 2 SLGT in the coming hours. Good call. New day 2 has a slight risk from the Dakotas to LM. Same area is just 15% with hatched for all but LM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 Latest model guidance shows an incredible setup for Lower Michigan and SW Ontario Tuesday. Looks like a possible outbreak scenario with robust supercells likely. http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/GFS/18/US/gfsUS_con_scp_078.gif Meh, there could be some strong storms, but I'm not seeing anything that screams outbreak. Recent model guidance has me very excited for Tuesday in SW Ontario. Most definitely will be out chasing. There appears to be good potential for a significant event. The atmosphere is primed with an ideal combo of param's. KGRR mentioning possible sustained progressive derecho into Lower Mi. No outbreak, but there was definitely some action in Ontario today. I was wondering if you chased and if so, got close to the tornadoes up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted June 24, 2014 Share Posted June 24, 2014 Ring of fire setup is beginning to look likely next week. Thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 24, 2014 Share Posted June 24, 2014 been watching...definite potential Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 24, 2014 Share Posted June 24, 2014 Ring of fire setup is beginning to look likely next week. Thoughts? Yeah it does look like there is a potential there, I would hedge my bets on a bit further south than currently projected. These setups tend to forecast further north only to verify south, which would be good for most of us anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted June 24, 2014 Share Posted June 24, 2014 Ring of fire setup is beginning to look likely next week. Thoughts? Agreed. Operational models today, especially 12z Euro, were showing good midlevel flow around the ridge over the Mid South. 12z Euro had 40 kts at H5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Surprised nobody posted about Sunday yet. Explosive instability and shear doesn't look terrible...good enough for organized severe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Surprised nobody posted about Sunday yet. Explosive instability and shear doesn't look terrible...good enough for organized severe. Been keeping an eye on it the last few days. NAM looked interesting as well in its far out range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Surprised nobody posted about Sunday yet. Explosive instability and shear doesn't look terrible...good enough for organized severe. I have been watching this one for a few days, it could be potentially be a good MCS potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted July 4, 2014 Share Posted July 4, 2014 Day 3 slight with mention of supercells and line segments. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted July 5, 2014 Share Posted July 5, 2014 This is a point forecast sounding for Sunday, 21z, today's 00z NAM. (7/5, 00z). This is for the La Crosse area. You don't see a forecast of 7000 J/kg CAPE every day. 0-6km shear values of 30-40 kt are in the area. The model has dew points in the mid 70s, which may be a bit high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted July 5, 2014 Share Posted July 5, 2014 Day 2 SWO didn't change much from SWODY3 of yesterday. Definitely looks like a decent potential for primarily S Wisconsin and N Illinois. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 5, 2014 Share Posted July 5, 2014 Directional shear looks pretty good tomorrow with generally S/SW winds at the surface veering to NW aloft. Upper level flow is a bit anemic though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted July 5, 2014 Share Posted July 5, 2014 Directional shear looks pretty good tomorrow with generally S/SW winds at the surface veering to NW aloft. Upper level flow is a bit anemic though. Yeah better shear lags behind the front. Regardless the instability should be there and NW flow events always seem to produce a couple good storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted July 5, 2014 Share Posted July 5, 2014 Yeah I like tomorrow as a sleeper day. I'd guess SPC goes 5% tor probs. SW WI to far northern IL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted July 5, 2014 Share Posted July 5, 2014 New day 2 added a 30% area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 5, 2014 Share Posted July 5, 2014 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1228 PM CDT SAT JUL 05 2014 VALID 061200Z - 071200Z ..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF WI SERN MN...CNTRL AND ERN IA...AND NRN IL... ..SUMMARY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND MIDWEST ON SUNDAY. ..SYNOPSIS SLY WINDS WILL MAINTAIN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN AN AXIS FROM THE SRN PLAINS NWD ACROSS THE LOWER MO AND UPPER MS VALLEYS WITH SURFACE HIGH OVER THE ERN STATES. BY LATE IN THE DAY...GRADUAL HEIGHT FALLS/COOLING ALOFT WILL SPREAD SEWD ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. A COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND SWD FROM LOW PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO...ROUGHLY ALONG A CNTRL WI TO CNTRL IA LINE BY 00Z. SUBSTANTIAL INSTABILITY WILL MATERIALIZE AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND BENEATH INCREASING FLOW ALOFT WITH SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS LIKELY CENTERED ON SRN WI...ERN IA AND NRN IL. ..SERN MN...WI...IA...NRN IL A FEW EARLY STORMS MAY BE ONGOING ACROSS NRN MN...NRN WI AND WRN UPPER MICHIGAN WITH PERHAPS A MINIMAL HAIL THREAT. HOWEVER...THE GREATEST CHANCE OF SEVERE HAIL AND WIND WILL OCCUR DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON EXTENDING SWWD ALONG THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT WHERE STRONG INSTABILITY WILL EXIST. MINIMALLY-VEERING WINDS IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE AND INCREASING WNWLY MID TO UPPER LEVEL WINDS SHOULD PROVE FAVORABLE FOR AT LEAST A FEW SUPERCELLS...ALTHOUGH STORM MODE IS LIKELY TO BECOME MIXED INTO THE EVENING. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BOTH BE LIKELY. THE MODELS APPEAR TO BE OVER-FORECASTING THE BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS...WHICH AFFECTS BOTH CAPE VALUES AND DEGREE OF CAPPING. AS A RESULT...CELLS MAY NEED TO REMAIN TIED TO THE FRONT AND/OR AN EVENTUAL TRANSITION TO MCS IS POSSIBLE. ..JEWELL.. 07/05/2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 5, 2014 Share Posted July 5, 2014 Regarding moisture possibly being overdone as SPC alludes to...considering what's going on out west now and that moisture doesn't look too shallow, I'm thinking the model errors won't be that big and we should be able to pull off widespread 70-75 degree dews tomorrow in the threat area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted July 6, 2014 Share Posted July 6, 2014 This is a point forecast sounding for Sunday, 21z, today's 00z NAM. (7/5, 00z). This is for the La Crosse area. You don't see a forecast of 7000 J/kg CAPE every day. 0-6km shear values of 30-40 kt are in the area. The model has dew points in the mid 70s, which may be a bit high. 00_NAM_045_43.3,-91.4_skewt_SB.gif Fairly impressive sounding, all in all... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted July 6, 2014 Share Posted July 6, 2014 0z 4km NAM showing a broken line forming by 2z Monday. 3z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UW-weather Posted July 6, 2014 Share Posted July 6, 2014 http://www.midwestweather.org/2014/07/strong-and-severe-thunderstorm-across.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 11, 2014 Share Posted July 11, 2014 Northwestern Illinois at 00z Sunday (using mixed layer parcel). Obviously convection earlier in the day may play a role. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwburbschaser Posted July 11, 2014 Share Posted July 11, 2014 Northwestern Illinois at 00z Sunday (using mixed layer parcel). Obviously convection earlier in the day may play a role. I definitely could work with that. It's still kind of far out for the NAM then add in earlier convection playing a role and I'm taking this with a grain of salt. On the other hand, the NAM runs today did progressively look more promising so I'm definitely interested. Heck, I'd probably take some scud at this point since I'm still feeling a bit salty after missing out on Pilger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted August 18, 2014 Share Posted August 18, 2014 SPC has added a slight risk area for tomorrow for parts of IL/IN/OH/KY. DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOKNWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK1230 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014VALID 191200Z - 201200Z...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A PORTION OF THE OHVALLEY......OH VALLEY AREA...LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL BECOME SWLY AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH WHICHWILL MAINTAIN RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE /UPPER 60S-LOW 70F DEWPOINTS/IN PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR. STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULDSPREAD INTO THIS REGION FROM THE WEST CONTRIBUTING TO 2500-3000 J/KGMLCAPE WHERE DIABATIC WARMING OF THE SFC LAYER OCCURS. SOMECONVECTION MAY BE IN PROGRESS OVER THE MID-MS VALLEY DRIVEN MOSTLYBY ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND LOW-LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION. WARMER AIR INTHE 850-750 MB LAYER MAY SERVE TO CAP A PORTION OF THE WARM SECTORTO SFC BASED DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY WITH SWD EXTENT INTO THE OHVALLEY. HOWEVER...STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP FROM PORTIONS OF IL ANDIND NWD WHERE THE CAP WILL BE WEAKER AND INFLUENCE OF DEEPER ASCENTASSOCIATED WITH THE PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD BE STRONGER.EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE TO 30-35 KT IN ASSOCIATION WITHMID-LEVEL JET ATTENDING THE UPPER TROUGH. MULTICELLS AND MARGINALSUPERCELL STRUCTURES MAY OCCUR WITH A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL ANDDAMAGING WIND THROUGH EARLY EVENING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted August 18, 2014 Share Posted August 18, 2014 There's also a slight risk today for areas farther northwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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