MillvilleWx Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Hmmm, Monday night into Tuesday event could be a nice snowfall for basically all of Pa. The 500mb pattern on the NAM shows a decent wave rolling through the southern half of great lakes allowing for good PVA into the region, especially for the LSV up to Central PA area. NAM shows a quick hitting light/moderate snowfall with qpf of 0.2-0.4" in about a 6-10 period. The temp profiles throughout the column look very favorable for a light fluffy snow type that could accumulate a lot easier than the paste we've been experiencing. One of the positives of Northern stream systems is fluffier snowfall, which I sure all of us could use after shoveling this stuff from last couple snowfalls. I can see areas from HBG to IPT pick up a quick 4-6" as CTP has shown. After that, looks like a sneak preview of spring for a 2-4 day stretch, then old man winter drops the hammer again. European Ensembles show cold air coming back with a vengeance late February into early March. Watch that period for something big as the wavelengths tend to shorten and stuff gets crazy. Old man winter has been brutal this year. He'll come in like a banshee, and I'm sure he won't leave without giving us a rude exit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Some snow shots from today. The first two are at my grandparents place which is close to here. Last ones in the backyard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Picked up 3.5" of snow today. Snow pack is 14.5" I'm starting to get some equipment breaks. And I am also starting to run out of places to pile the snow. I think the next issue will be needing to shovel snow off the roof if we get to much more snow. Been one heck of a 2014!!! I-83 hard to believe you had a fail today. I guess even you needed a day off shoveling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Just coming in after removing this round from my house,elderly neighbors, my sister's and the firehouse. Putting this in the books at 3.25.I guess I'm ready for Monday, but will say Aleeve is this ole man's best friend, well that and the 3 bottles of sweet baby Jesus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PennMan Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Which part of Rothrock did you go to?Down by the bottom of Tussey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scummyratguy Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Just coming in after removing this round from my house,elderly neighbors, my sister's and the firehouse. Putting this in the books at 3.25.I guess I'm ready for Monday, but will say Aleeve is this ole man's best friend, well that and the 3 bottles of sweet baby Jesus. Also working on a bottle of that! (Both Aleve and sweet baby Jesus) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoar_Frost Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Just got back in from a hike in Rothrock state forest south of State College. Over 20" on the ground there. Measured 21" in a somewhat sheltered area, some areas seemed a little deeper. How are the roads back in there right now? I was thinking about taking a little ride -- probably tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Are you guys looking at another 1 to 4 type event Monday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Laurel Highlands Wx Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Parents back home said they got 5 inches. Bringing total or the season up to 68.4". Snowpack is about 18". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rick G Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 some pics from today, 16 inches from Thursday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 How are the roads back in there right now? I was thinking about taking a little ride -- probably tomorrow. I'm more familiar with the end of Rothrock State Forest and Tussey Mountain from Pine Grove Mills down to what used to be Colerain State Park near Spruce Creek (about 20 miles down Route 45 from State College). Pretty much all the mountain roads within the state forest area in that portion are unmaintained in the winter time and are open to snowmobiles. I'm sure the local snowmobilers are having a blast with all this snow we've had. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 Quite windy in southern York. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 I'm more familiar with the end of Rothrock State Forest and Tussey Mountain from Pine Grove Mills down to what used to be Colerain State Park near Spruce Creek (about 20 miles down Route 45 from State College). Pretty much all the mountain roads within the state forest area in that portion are unmaintained in the winter time and are open to snowmobiles. I'm sure the local snowmobilers are having a blast with all this snow we've had. Me and my son went out for a couple hours today..It was a blast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PennMan Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 How are the roads back in there right now? I was thinking about taking a little ride -- probably tomorrow.Once you get past the ski entrance they are snowcovered and slick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather5 Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 I was in Harrisburg today and man is the river frozen over with a lot of snow on it. The snow acts like an insulator and doesn't let the ice get much thicker but this little warm up will melt the snow off then we get cold again and the ice thickness more then likely will grow. Could be a very bad march along the river if it snows more and warms up and rain comes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 I was in Harrisburg today and man is the river frozen over with a lot of snow on it. The snow acts like an insulator and doesn't let the ice get much thicker but this little warm up will melt the snow off then we get cold again and the ice thickness more then likely will grow. Could be a very bad march along the river if it snows more and warms up and rain comes.I'm very scared of flooding. The city has so much snow, the river is ice with inches of snow on top and upriver runoff with the warmup .... it will not be pretty. Ice jams will be significant I believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 CMC and Nam not looking to bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rick G Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 I am amazed at the pattern we are in. I was telling my daughter about the 1993 & 1996 winters. She was born in 1992 and doesn't remember the big storms. Being part of this community adds to the enjoyment of the storm. Now everyone is taking a break. Enjoy... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pirates21 Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 light snow falling here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pirates21 Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 snow is picking up nicely...sidewalks are covered...are you seeing any of this in Bellwood Mag? I defer to you as youre probably about no more than ten miles from me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meteo Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 Yeah its coming down pretty good here....fresh new coating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 Hmmm, Monday night into Tuesday event could be a nice snowfall for basically all of Pa. The 500mb pattern on the NAM shows a decent wave rolling through the southern half of great lakes allowing for good PVA into the region, especially for the LSV up to Central PA area. NAM shows a quick hitting light/moderate snowfall with qpf of 0.2-0.4" in about a 6-10 period. The temp profiles throughout the column look very favorable for a light fluffy snow type that could accumulate a lot easier than the paste we've been experiencing. One of the positives of Northern stream systems is fluffier snowfall, which I sure all of us could use after shoveling this stuff from last couple snowfalls. I can see areas from HBG to IPT pick up a quick 4-6" as CTP has shown. After that, looks like a sneak preview of spring for a 2-4 day stretch, then old man winter drops the hammer again. European Ensembles show cold air coming back with a vengeance late February into early March. Watch that period for something big as the wavelengths tend to shorten and stuff gets crazy. Old man winter has been brutal this year. He'll come in like a banshee, and I'm sure he won't leave without giving us a rude exit. Ober's been calling for a March storm since fall. That would be his "walk off". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 I'm very scared of flooding. The city has so much snow, the river is ice with inches of snow on top and upriver runoff with the warmup .... it will not be pretty. Ice jams will be significant I believe.Canderson this is for IPT but a concern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 It's gonna happen. We all know it's going to happen. You don't have a winter like this where everybody is 20+ year-to-date in snowfall and sitting on top of feet of ice. We can all hope for a muted and gradual warmup but I think deep-down we all realize that a muted warmup will likely happen this week followed by even more cold, another big storm (maybe/hopefully) and somewhere down the line winter is going to cash out and somebody's screwed. It happens too often in the Midwest for us not to think it won't happen here lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 I think we're going to luck out here - even when the "cool down" comes, it's still going to be above freezing if CTP's forecast is to be believed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 I don't Monday /Tuesday ia a big deal for us in the Harrisburg region, 1".... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 I don't Monday /Tuesday ia a big deal for us in the Harrisburg region, 1"....1-2" yeah, it'll fall at the worst possible time it looks like though. Go figure! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 Yea, looking like Monday/Tues. has become a non event for most of the area...maybe 1 to 3? Hoping for a steady, slow melt off for all of PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 Anyone know what UNV's total is for February? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted February 16, 2014 Author Share Posted February 16, 2014 Ober's been calling for a March storm since fall. That would be his "walk off". I'm on the 93-94 train. It's gonna happen. We all know it's going to happen. You don't have a winter like this where everybody is 20+ year-to-date in snowfall and sitting on top of feet of ice. We can all hope for a muted and gradual warmup but I think deep-down we all realize that a muted warmup will likely happen this week followed by even more cold, another big storm (maybe/hopefully) and somewhere down the line winter is going to cash out and somebody's screwed. It happens too often in the Midwest for us not to think it won't happen here lol. I have that feeling too. I think we're going to luck out here - even when the "cool down" comes, it's still going to be above freezing if CTP's forecast is to be believed. That's only for Sunday. Much colder after that as per all the models. Euro really drops the arctic hammer day 10, sub 500 thickness down into PA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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