IsentropicLift Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Im n/w of the city right now in morris county and usually id agree with you with the bigger totals to the n/w (I especially thought so with this set up) -- but looking at the radar, it appears heaviest bands will train over city and LI, which would lead me to think immediate city does just as good as n/w just my obs, not sure if that will work out but I could see this being pretty equal throughout the region... believe me, id love you to be right, but just seeing the heaviest returns east of me rather than n/w like much of the guidance was placing the heavier axis i'm in Morris County myself. You should be looking at radar out of KDIX. Anyway, the heaviest of all the banding on the front end is slated for LI but we'll do great out here too. Take a nap and look again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Really shocked at how little snow has accumulated. 1/2" and 34 degrees. Central LI. This could be a huge bust for the area. Look what is south of us-temps will crash again as this pivots through. We still have a very long way to go, even all the way out by you. If anything this makes it worse as what snow will fall is of the heavy, wet kind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Does anyone have a current 850 map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxman9 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 29 in Dyker Heights close to 2 inches . Those rates in Toms River will work there way into the city and Nassau County then points N . In between 7am and 10am - you may pick up 6- 8 inches in that window alone . Not sure how long after 10 am the city holds on . 10 inches @ KNYC upfront was the call on the HRRR , and looks in line . you really think the city will have flipped in four hours' time? and if so, given radar returns to our south doesn't that mean many hours of pretty heavy rain thereafter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Im n/w of the city right now in morris county and usually id agree with you with the bigger totals to the n/w (I especially thought so with this set up) -- but looking at the radar, it appears heaviest bands will train over city and LI, which would lead me to think immediate city does just as good as n/w just my obs, not sure if that will work out but I could see this being pretty equal throughout the region... believe me, id love you to be right, but just seeing the heaviest returns east of me rather than n/w like much of the guidance was placing the heavier axis Typical early storm freakout... relax, you will be more than fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 but many of us are changing over by late morning; we'd hoped the heaviest thump would've gotten here soonerI never thought that LI would JP from this and I still don't. The JP zone should be the NW areas. Although I don't think as many people changeover as you think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 I've also had light snow to now and maybe 1.5" new snow, but that seems due to subsidence north of where the heavy snow is, and we are about to get nailed starting very soon. 7-10am seemed to be when the most fun would be anyway. Snow is noticeably picking up in the last 15 mins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Patrick Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/index.php?type=DIX-N0C-1-12 Looks like someone lit a fuse under NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 I never thought that LI would JP from this and I still don't. The JP zone should be the NW areas. Although I don't think as many people changeover as you think. I'm in northern Middlesex co, local mets have us at rain around 10 am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redbanknjandbigbasslakepa Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Does anyone have a current 850 map PB, doesn't look like this one is for us in Monmouth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Do you buy rain by 10a as per Bill Evans?i very rarely watch on TV mets. Why would I do that when I can view the modeling myself and this board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ScottB Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Middlesex County looks to be Obliterated by that band. Must.. stay.. awake.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 It's a good sign that the bands are having a little trouble moving north so far and that the whole evolution is slowing some. That will only prolong the duration and is a sign that the storm is really beginning to wrap up and organize. The heaviest front end now looks slated for late morning. This reminds me so much of 96'. .."this reminds me of '96"...that storm was 20 degrees colder!..that one had no chance of a c/o.. this one is a nail biter out here..waiting for the c/o..32*..moderate snow in eastport Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tdp146 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Really shocked at how little snow has accumulated. 1/2" and 34 degrees. Central LI. This could be a huge bust for the area. Just woke up and thought the same thing. Went to sleep at 1Am with a dusting already down and not more that a half inch 5 hours later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 .."this reminds me of '96"...that storm was 20 degrees colder!..that one had no chance of a c/o.. this one is a nail biter out here..waiting for the c/o..32*..moderate snow in eastport I switched over in that storm all the way up here for awhile. I see most areas only briefly changing over. Not everyone here lives by the ocean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Just woke up and thought the same thing. Went to sleep at 1Am with a dusting already down and not more that a half inch 5 hours later. Poor snow growth and light rates... you guys will be singing a different tune in a few hours. You won't jackpot (nor will I in Queens) but you'll have a memorable front end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 HRRR doesnt have any good change over here on LI until noon or 1pm. And it dumps 10"+ area wide through then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 PB, doesn't look like this one is for us in Monmouth I like being wrong to the point of being a foot wrong , 2 days ago I never thought MC would thread the needle with a retreating HP Told Rossi 6 max . will double that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Sounds good to me.. Mount holly THE BAND OF HEAVY SNOW EXTENDED FROM PHILADELPHIA EAST THROUGH OCEAN COUNTY. SNOWFALL RATES OF AROUND THREE TO FOUR INCHES PER HOUR HAS OCCURRED IN THIS BAND. THE BAND WAS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH AND AFFECT THE NORTHERN PHILADELPHIA SUBURBS AND CENTRAL NEW JERSEY BETWEEN NOW AND 8 AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 you really think the city will have flipped in four hours' time? and if so, given radar returns to our south doesn't that mean many hours of pretty heavy rain thereafter? Not sure if its 10 -11 , hoping that when we flip 90 perc of the 1st round will b frozen and then you dealin with crud , until the show tonite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 The 4K NAM 06Z keeps the surface freezing line SE of NYC throughout and hits NJ into NYC the hardest with the backend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Poor snow growth and light rates... you guys will be singing a different tune in a few hours. You won't jackpot (nor will I in Queens) but you'll have a memorable front end. Agree. The mid level frontogenesis is just starting . Once those heavy bands make it onshore temperatures will wet-bulb back to freezing, and accumulations will be more pronounced. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikemost Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Subsidence is wearing off. Snow starting to pick up now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Momza Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 i very rarely watch on TV mets. Why would I do that when I can view the modeling myself and this board. Neither do I...but heard thru grapevine........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 well the consensus by all is somewhere from 6-12 inches for my area, northeast Middlesex co nj. I assume this means by fri when all is said and done. I need to get some rest, only awake because of bad sinuses and cough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 The 4K NAM 06Z keeps the surface freezing line SE of NYC throughout and hits NJ into NYC the hardest with the backend. Yeah, but it taints the mid levels... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sickman Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 It's a good sign that the bands are having a little trouble moving north so far and that the whole evolution is slowing some. That will only prolong the duration and is a sign that the storm is really beginning to wrap up and organize. The heaviest front end now looks slated for late morning. This reminds me so much of 96'. Timing is more critical in this setup. Comparing this to '96, even for interior areas, is silly IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowblind Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Middlesex County looks to be Obliterated by that band. Must.. stay.. awake.. yes here in matawan and it's coming down really heavy. Shame it goes to heavy rain. Was hoping for a miracle when I woke.Are we still supposed to get backend? Looking at radar now looks like after rain it shuts down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 The 0 line at 850 at 10z seems to be around Cape May right now. So it is nowhere near us. If anything, it seems to be below where models were placing it at that time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sock Puppet Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Heavy snow building north. Extended up right at Sandy Hook so hopefully it'll continue into Brooklyn shortly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.