Baum Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 Judging from the lack of discussion about it, I assume the GFS continues to suck. Or it's Saturday night and people have lives. My excuse is I'm over 50 and have been out, but back in the stead. And yes, the American models are saying...NO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 Judging from the lack of discussion about it, I assume the GFS continues to suck. slightly better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 slightly better Hollow progress considering the GEM/NAM, but at least it didn't get any worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 Probably end up with 0.3" or so with tonight's DAB. Pulled off 0.4". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeenerWx Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 Ended up with a tad over an inch tonight. Had some decent rates for awhile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 Ended up with exactly 1 inch from today's wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 16, 2014 Author Share Posted February 16, 2014 Ended up with 1.0" of snow here this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 Yep exactly 1.0" here too. Pretty fluffy stuff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 Man it's gonna get real interesting if the Euro decides to stay on the wetter side. GFS isn't too bad. Would indicate a good 3-4" of snow here considering LSRs pretty close to 10:1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 0z GGEM is a nice hit for YYZ. Shows about 3-5". http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 GEM still looks good here. At least .50"+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 UKMET pretty wet too. Nice blob of 0.60"+ snow liquid equivalent in northern IL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 This is from earlier today from DTX on their expectations and why they are leaning toward the foreign models compared to the American models: DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...THE FLOW REGIME ACROSSTHE CONUS WILL BRIEFLY TRANSITION TO A PROGRESSIVE HIGH INDEXCONFIGURATION WITH PLENTY OF SUB-SYNOPTIC POSITIVE PV FEATURESEVOLVING IN CLOSE PROXIMITY. THIS EVOLUTION IS COURTESY OF THEBREAKDOWN OF THE EASTPAC LONGWAVE TROUGH COMPLEX...AS A STRONGJETLET SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS AGGRESSIVELY DRIVES EASTWARD THROUGHTHE WAVE TRAIN. THIS FEATURE IS THE CORNERSTONE TO ANY BAROCLINICWAVE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHERN GREATLAKES REGION LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.PLENTY OF VARIANCE IN SOLUTION DEPICTIONS ALL TIED TO THEVARIATIONAL PHASE SPEEDS OF THE WAVE INDUCED FROM THE JET STREAKDRIVING EAST AND A SMALLER PV ANOMALY SEPARATING FROM THE SOUTHERNEXTENSION OF THE EASTPAC TROUGH NEAR NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THISSMALL FEATURE HAS AN OPPORTUNITY TO UNDERGO RAPID AMPLIFICATION...IFIT CAN STAY AHEAD OF THE MAIN NORTHERN STREAM WAVE...ALLOWING IT TOFEAST OFF OF THE MAIN HEIGHT FALL CENTER OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGIONMONDAY EVENING. THE 15.12 ECMWF/UKMET/CMC GLOBAL SOLUTIONS ALL HAVESOME FLAVOR OF PHASED DEVELOPMENT. WHILE THE NAM AND GFS ARE FASTERWITH THE NORTHERN WAVE...DAMPENING THE DEVELOPMENT SEQUENCE/ESPECIALLY THE GFS/. CORRELATING KEY FEATURES WITH GOES-WV IMAGERYSUGGEST THE NON-NCEP CAMP HAS THE ADVANTAGE ON THE POSITIONING ANDTRANSLATION OF THE AFORMENTIONED EASTPAC FEATURES.THE TRENDS OF THE ECMWF HAVE BEEN TO REDUCE THE RATE OFDEVELOPMENT...AND THIS IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE UKMET AND CMC GLOBALSOLUTIONS. THAT SAID...THE AMOUNT OF NON-LINEARITY IN SUCH ASHORT-WAVELENGTH PHASING PROCESS COMMANDS RESPECT FOR OVERACHIEVINGDEVELOPMENT OVER THE SOUTHERN LAKES REGION MONDAY EVENING.FORECAST HAS A DISTINCT 15.12 ECMWF FLAVOR. LIQUID EQUIVALENTPRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE HALF INCHNEIGHBORHOOD SUPPORTED BY A MIXING RATIO RESERVOIR OF 3-4 G/KGAVAILABLE FOR THE INCOMING FORCING. SNOW RATIOS WILL BE NEAR10-12:1 WITH THE RATHER INTENSE RATES AND RELATIVELY WARM COLUMN -SETTING THE STAGE FOR A 4-6 INCH EVENT ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEASTMICHIGAN MONDAY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS /PEAK FORCING IN A6 HOUR WINDOW MONDAY EVENING/. THE RELATIVELY SHORT DURATION OFMAXIMUM FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE CARVING WAVE MERGER CERTAINLYCAPTURES ONE/S ATTENTION. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 Euro solid like a rock, showing .5" liquid for Metro Detroit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 Gotta give it to the UKMET, 3 super consistent runs in a row now. I think the 850mb low spot hasn't moved passing over Gary, IN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 Starting to feel very confident on a solid event with this one. Looking like a good 4-5" of good, dense snowfall here. May have a brief period of pingers within the first hour of the event, but should quickly transition to all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 Starting to feel very confident on a solid event with this one. Looking like a good 4-5" of good, dense snowfall here. May have a brief period of pingers within the first hour of the event, but should quickly transition to all snow. I really hope your area overachieves, you guys deserve a winner this time around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 I really hope your area overachieves, you guys deserve a winner this time around. Yeah we'll see. The Euro tends to be a tad dry, so I'm thinking tomorrows NCEP runs will be interesting. GFS has been a bit too wet with some of the clippers here this season, so the fact that it's drier than the Euro is a bit interesting. The Euro and GEM have been in decent agreement with things the last few runs, so that adds confidence to the GFS being a bit too weak/dry. NAM has been the wetter of the NCEPs, but that's not surprising lol. Wouldn't be surprised to see it come in very wet tomorrow, but would probably end up being too wet as usual. This storm has potential to breach the 6" barrier for here and surrounding areas, but I'm guessing it will fall a bit short. Would need it to slow down just a bit, and have it be a bit stronger. Possible, but not expecting it at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtrackertf Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 One last run at 20" snowdepth for DTW! Doubt we make it, but snow depth is still 15"-ish there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 I'll go 4.2" for a first call Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 I'll go 4.2" for a first call Looks good. Hopefully that's a bit too low. I'm gonna wait till after the 12z suite for my exact call for here. Leaning towards 4.8" or so here, but want to see tomorrow's 12z before I get too precise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 6z NAM is a little stronger and slower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 6z RGEM also stronger/wetter/slower Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 6z NAM back to AOA 1/2" QPF at YYZ. Not as impressive with ul system as the 18z run but it still gets the job done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 I think the GFS is a bit too fast still and part of the reason it is going to be a bit cheap on the QPF is that inherently its grid scale resolution isn't going to pick up on mesoscale banding features that the other models would catch up on. That being said the GFS 06z run took a step toward a wetter more phased solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortex Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 [attachment=122016:TotalSnow_Fcst Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 looks like this GFS is going to be right about this not being a major. Duration was always working against it. 2.8" call looking decent but probably an inch light. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 looks like this GFS is going to be right about this not being a major. Duration was always working against it. 2.8" call looking decent but probably an inch light. You mean the GFS that has progressively gotten wetter on consecutive runs for the last 6 and has gone closer to the rest of model consensus? http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2014&model_mm=02&model_dd=16&model_init_hh=06&fhour=72¶meter=PCPIN&level=48&unit=HR&maximize=n&mode=dprogdt&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 looks like pretty great consensus on a 2-5" hit with the GEFS as well. SREF plumes down to 3.5" with a fairly tight 2.5-5.5" spread. LOTs 3-6 area wide seems on the money. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 looks like pretty great consensus on a 2-5" hit with the GEFS as well. SREF plumes down to 3.5" with a fairly tight 2.5-5.5" spread. LOTs 3-6 area wide seems on the money. This one is not to be trusted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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