clueless Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 I will opt for a sleep storm and get SN rather than slop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 18z GFS still likes an absolutely frigid Thursday morning... -24c to -26c 850s... damn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Ole Bucket Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 18z GFS still having a quick mover for Tues/Wed, but temps definitely cold enough for precip to be frozen. Now slowly reel it back in from the coast over the next couple days... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 21, 2014 Author Share Posted February 21, 2014 It came back to reality from its big storm, but then was the 1st to go bullish after all the models went to a crappy solution...all around it was a poor performance by all the models inside 4 days when they should be better The models were WAY better for 1/21 once the Euro caught on 36 hours out...It was an abysmal performance for the euro from 2 days out ...from 36 hours in, the models were locked and loaded though the GFS was kind of clueless right at the end So the Euro won all 3 2014 events from inside 36 hours...but the GFS was better outside 48 hours on both 1/2 and 1/21 So not sure we can cull anything from it all except the GFS isn't really to be trusted inside 48 hours if the Euro/Canadian/Ukmet/Nam agree... Outside 48 hours, I think we just blend and remain non-committal... 2/13 was the ONLY event this year where a majority of models were good wire to wire That's a good post Matt. I think the GFS has had its moments of good and bad, and so has the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 That's a good post Matt. I think the GFS has had its moments of good and bad, and so has the Euro HM can add a lot more as well as others, but Wednesday is a somewhat standard Archambault +NAO to -NAO event.....These events don't always have the greatest tracks or amplify very well..so anything is really on the table...including a sh-it the bed dud.....Our big storms often come during the -NAO to +NAO shift just as the pattern is going to sh-it.....see 2/12-13....storms at the beginning of good patterns are wildcards....I wouldn't consider 1/21 an Archambault event, but the antecedent pattern to that event was a lot better than the pattern we are in... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 I'd give up the March 1st potential if hour 348 of the GFS verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 ot of sorts, fyi http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/seasonal/forecast/seasonal_range_forecast/group_public/seasonal_charts_public_sst!mean%20sea%20level%20pressure!4%20months!South%20America!201402!tercile%20summary/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 I'd give up the March 1st potential if hour 348 of the GFS verifies. I hope you plan on moving a bit further northwest than Bethesda in the next 2 weeks... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 ot of sorts, fyi http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/seasonal/forecast/seasonal_range_forecast/group_public/seasonal_charts_public_sst!mean%20sea%20level%20pressure!4%20months!South%20America!201402!tercile%20summary/ I'd love a super nino and just roll the dice with blocking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 I hope you plan on moving a bit further northwest than Bethesda in the next 2 weeks... Verbatim it is all snow in Bethesda. 32 degrees unless there is a warm nose. Why are we even discussing this??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 Verbatim it is all snow in Bethesda. 32 degrees unless there is a warm nose. Why are we even discussing this??? you posted it maybe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 Verbatim it is all snow in Bethesda. 32 degrees unless there is a warm nose. Why are we even discussing this??? there's no warm nose....I can't believe I am looking at a 348 hour sounding Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 there's no warm nose....I can't believe I am looking at a 348 hour sounding We need help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Don Cherry's Jacket Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 there's no warm nose....I can't believe I am looking at a 348 hour sounding Come on. That's a lock; they ALWAYS verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 ot of sorts, fyi http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/seasonal/forecast/seasonal_range_forecast/group_public/seasonal_charts_public_sst!mean%20sea%20level%20pressure!4%20months!South%20America!201402!tercile%20summary/ All signs are pointing to a Niño this summer into the fall. It's a long time coming, so it kind of makes sense logically. After losing blocking most of this winter, it'd be sweet if it came back again next year to pair with that Niño. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 Wed has all the ingredients for the long lost widespread 3-5" storm imo with no temp issues and solid tongues stuck to flag poles on the heels. It has to happen. We need it. We require it. I'm a day away from all fookin in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 I still think super nino late 90's changed things. DC has some big snows from 2000+. It's not once every four or five years for last 15. I feel good about winters for next decade. Good friend of mine does too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 18z GFS still likes an absolutely frigid Thursday morning... -24c to -26c 850s... damn what does that mean for the 2m temps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 Gfs took a dump on my optimism. Go euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 Gfs took a dump on my optimism. Go euro Yup, certainly looks like ****. But it's the GFS. And if you need hope (out of desperation) check out the 84 hour NAM. Shh, I didn't say that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 -25C 850 from GFS best to X.70 for a -17C still real cold, highs in 20's DC area. One final blast! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 bring on that cool refreshing weather. I still cant believe we hit 70/60 today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 EURO with GFS, NAM Doors: 8:00 Show: 8:45 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 what does that mean for the 2m temps? Ball shriveling cold. The wave is still there on the GFS. Its just strung out. It will come back. I hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 22, 2014 Share Posted February 22, 2014 http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/42996-late-februarymarch-medium-long-range-disco/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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