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February Medium/Long Range Disco 2


WinterWxLuvr

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It came back to reality from its big storm, but then was the 1st to go bullish after all the models went to a crappy solution...all around it was a poor performance by all the models inside 4 days when they should be better

The models were WAY better for 1/21 once the Euro caught on 36 hours out...It was an abysmal performance for the euro from 2 days out ...from 36 hours in, the models were locked and loaded though the GFS was kind of clueless right at the end

So the Euro won all 3 2014 events from inside 36 hours...but the GFS was better outside 48 hours on both 1/2 and 1/21

So not sure we can cull anything from it all except the GFS isn't really to be trusted inside 48 hours if the Euro/Canadian/Ukmet/Nam agree...

Outside 48 hours, I think we just blend and remain non-committal...

2/13 was the ONLY event this year where a majority of models were good wire to wire

That's a good post Matt. I think the GFS has had its moments of good and bad, and so has the Euro

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That's a good post Matt. I think the GFS has had its moments of good and bad, and so has the Euro

 

HM can add a lot more as well as others, but Wednesday is a somewhat standard Archambault +NAO to -NAO event.....These events don't always have the greatest tracks or amplify very well..so anything is really on the table...including a sh-it the bed dud.....Our big storms often come during the -NAO to +NAO shift just as the pattern is going to sh-it.....see 2/12-13....storms at the beginning of good patterns are wildcards....I wouldn't consider 1/21 an Archambault event, but the antecedent pattern to that event was a lot better than the pattern we are in...

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All signs are pointing to a Niño this summer into the fall. It's a long time coming, so it kind of makes sense logically.

After losing blocking most of this winter, it'd be sweet if it came back again next year to pair with that Niño.

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