Central PA and The Fringes - February 2014 Part II

[wxmeddler]

24/19

[Eskimo Joe]

Joe, how can you dismiss this so non-chalantly?  Ever since my post a few hours ago where I layed out my case for why I felt this ice storm has the potential to be crippling, I was thinking to my self that this storm could turn out to be "The Perfect Storm" for ice.  Of course, the premise I lay out completely depends on us receiving the very high amounts of freezing rain that some models have been predicting.

 

Why do I call it "The Perfect Storm"?  Because of the weight of all the snow/ice now stuck to all of our trees and shrubs.  I know this isn't overly scientific, but I've been trying to estimate what is the volume of ice accretion (by weight) now sticking to everything?  I am thinking that it actually is between 0.15" and 0.25".  So, in essence, we are starting out this upcoming storm with the accreted weight of those values.  Now, let's say that roughly 0.50" of ice successfully accretes by the time the storm ends?  The effective weight will really be like as much as 0.25" of accretion, and thus the damage produced will be amplified.  Because of this, I believe the possibility is greater now that we reach the level 3 of storm damage from Zak's ice chart.

 

I don't want any ice accretion and am praying that the majority falls as frozen instead of freezing.

I dismiss the ice potential based on three criteria:

 

1.) Speed of the storm.  Progressive storms such as this rarely go as planned.  They are in and out in 10 - 14 hours.  Not much time for the precipitation to accumulate, or pile up.

 

2.)  Amount of warm air.  With each run, there has been an increase in the mid level warming south of Route 22, which in my experience, is crucial in identifying major ice events.  Take a look at the sounding for York, PA at 12z (07:00 local time).  The surface is *barely* below freezing and it's torching aloft.  In the mid 40s between 750 - 850 mb.

 

 

3.) Precipitation rates. Ask JamieO about the success of freezing rain accreting when it's coming down at a steady rate.  Latent heat release will aid in warming surfaces temperatures and keeping major ice accretions from occurring.  I absolutely agree there will be slick roads and power outages, but long term power outages (which are considered more than 24 consecutive hours for a customer) will be scattered at best.  Believe it or not, I hope I am wrong.  I *want* a crippling ice storm, it excites me to see that.

 

Also for those wondering how to measure the weight of ice on power lines, check out this site.

 

http://powline.com/products.html

 

Powline.com has software which allows users to calculate the weigh of ice on electrical lines. 

[dcfox1]

I'm interested to see after the storm the difference between what light-mod rain will be against a heavy rain freezing. I agree the light rain freezes quicker but if its cold enough could the heavy rain freeze quicker making a difference. Either way the heavy rain will pond like heck with all the snow piled up along the roads.

[Voyager]

CTP's maps has me at 1-2 inches of snow and .01-.10 of ice. Is this a non event here in Schuylkill County or what? I'm perplexed. I've been working and driving all day and haven't really had time to look at models or anything yet....

 

***Edited to add that State College's and Mount Holly's maps for this system are WORLD'S apart at this time.***

 

Bump???

[CarlislePaWx]

low dew points will help fight the warm air moving in at first... but they will eventually climb into at least the upper 20s if not low 30s... that will not be cold enough to force all falling precip to freeze right away... rainfall rates will be too heavy for all of it to freeze before dripping from the trees... will it eventually freeze at the surface? possibly

 

 

even though some snow is still on the trees a droplet warm enough to be a rain drop will cause a mix of some melting of that snow and refreeze... not all will hit branches and freeze on impact...  the weight on the branches yesterday was heavier than what a quarter inch ice will have and without... without significant wind we will need more than a half inch of ice forming on trees and i just dont see it

 

Djr, I'm not totally sure I understand your explanation.  In the first part you say that the current weight of the snow/ice on the trees is much more than the equivalent ice weight of 0.25" of accretion.  But then you say that you doubt very much that 0.50" of ice accretes.  If the premise of your first statement is true then it would be very hard for your second statement to be correct IF we get the levels of freezing rain now expected around here.

 

Let's say the weight of the snow = 0.50" of ice accretion.  Well, we're already at that level before the storm even begins.  If we accrete only 0.25" during the storm then we reach 0.75" equivalent and with 0.50" of new accretion we reach 1.00" accreted weight.  That puts us into the category 4 on Zak's ice chart with widespread tree damage even without significant winds.

[PennMan]

Bump???

I have no idea...even if you had 90% of your precip as sleet, you'd still likely see 3-4" total.

[Laurel Highlands Wx]

Here is a neat way of following the warm air only at the surface. Watch the temperature at Indiana (KIDI). It is usually very close to what the temperature is back at my parent's home. If they are at 34 then most likely downtown Johnstown and Northern Cambria are up to 32. Since they have the lowest elevation. This is more useful for our AOO and UNV crew including 2001k.   

[CarlislePaWx]

I dismiss the ice potential based on three criteria:

 

1.) Speed of the storm.  Progressive storms such as this rarely go as planned.  They are in and out in 10 - 14 hours.  Not much time for the precipitation to accumulate, or pile up.

 

2.)  Amount of warm air.  With each run, there has been an increase in the mid level warming south of Route 22, which in my experience, is crucial in identifying major ice events.  Take a look at the sounding for York, PA at 12z (07:00 local time).  The surface is *barely* below freezing and it's torching aloft.  In the mid 40s between 750 - 850 mb.

 1782138_791929384156618_858976162_n.jpg

 

3.) Precipitation rates. Ask JamieO about the success of freezing rain accreting when it's coming down at a steady rate.  Latent heat release will aid in warming surfaces temperatures and keeping major ice accretions from occurring.  I absolutely agree there will be slick roads and power outages, but long term power outages (which are considered more than 24 consecutive hours for a customer) will be scattered at best.  Believe it or not, I hope I am wrong.  I *want* a crippling ice storm, it excites me to see that.

 

Also for those wondering how to measure the weight of ice on power lines, check out this site.

 

http://powline.com/products.html

 

Powline.com has software which allows users to calculate the weigh of ice on electrical lines. 

 

 

Thanks for taking the time to explain and elaborate on your position.  I definitely do not want a crippling ice storm.  Jan 1994 was probably the worst storm I have ever witnessed.  But, during that storm temps were in the teens and even in the single digits at higher elevations of north jersey.

 

Also, thank you for the powerline link.  I was wondering about how one would calculate the effective weight of ice on lines.  I'm assuming the same weight would apply to trees?

[Eskimo Joe]

Bump???

Sleet is going to get you up there, but icing threat is not terribly great.  The main roads should be fine, but icy bridges and secondary roads will be dicey for a time Wednesday morning.  Probably 0.1" - 0.2" ice.

[Voyager]

I have no idea...even if you had 90% of your precip as sleet, you'd still likely see 3-4" total.

 

Thanks.

 

I just asked them on their Facebook post. See if they respond. The lack of any real precipitation in their map depictions is strange.

[Eskimo Joe]

Thanks for taking the time to explain and elaborate on your position.  I definitely do not want a crippling ice storm.  Jan 1994 was probably the worst storm I have ever witnessed.  But, during that storm temps were in the teens and even in the single digits at higher elevations of north jersey.

 

Also, thank you for the powerline link.  I was wondering about how one would calculate the effective weight of ice on lines.  I'm assuming the same weight would apply to trees?

No.  Each species of tree has different tolerances for weight...pine trees for example are the first to go while hard woods like Oak and Maple last much longer. Also, diseased trees are the first to go.

[Cashtown_Coop]

current text forecast (adams) how is this warning material?

 

REST OF TONIGHT...SNOW OR FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET LIKELY THIS
EVENING...THEN FREEZING RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW. SNOW AND SLEET
ACCUMULATION AROUND AN INCH. ICE ACCUMULATION OF UP TO A TENTH OF
AN INCH. NOT AS COOL WITH LOWS IN THE MID 20S. NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO
10 MPH. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION NEAR 100 PERCENT.
.

WEDNESDAY...FREEZING RAIN AND RAIN IN THE MORNING...THEN A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. ICE ACCUMULATION AROUND A TRACE.
HIGHS IN THE MID 30S. NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH...BECOMING WEST
10 TO 15 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION NEAR
100 PERCENT.

 

** Basically 1" of snow/sleet and one tenth of ice?**  Am I missing something??
 

[mappy]

No idea what to expect here...

[Voyager]

** Basically 1" of snow/sleet and one tenth of ice?**  Am I missing something??

 

 

 

Whatever you're missing, I seem to be missing it as well.

 

• Tonight Snow before 4am, then snow and sleet. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 23. Calm wind becoming east 5 to 9 mph after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total nighttime snow and sleet accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible.
• Wednesday Freezing rain and sleet before 10am, then snow, freezing rain, and sleet between 10am and 1pm, then a chance of rain or freezing rain after 1pm. High near 31. East wind 7 to 13 mph becoming north in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New ice accumulation of less than a 0.1 of an inch possible. New snow and sleet accumulation of less than one inch possible.

[Eskimo Joe]

I am praying for a major ice storm.  Just.This.Once.  I want destruction.

[2001kx]

No. I'd never try to feed an entire house through 1 receptacle. The transient portion of the current could very well start a fire, even on the 220 line.

The only safe location with which to power the entire home is at the main.

For powering the furnace, isolating it from the rest of the house via breaker and receptacle is the safest route, but requires amending the existing wiring which is beyond most homeowners.

I would only run the furnace..not the whole house.

if every breaker was off (including the main) except for the dryer & the furnace

wouldnt the dryer breaker work as a 30 amp main to power the panel & feed the furnace?

the 30amp dryer breaker would / should trip before any damage to the 220 wire?

i am no electrician as you can tell but i am curious as to the dangers of this set-up.

[Cashtown_Coop]

cumberland even worse:

 

REST OF TONIGHT...SNOW OR FREEZING RAIN LIKELY THIS EVENING...THEN
FREEZING RAIN...SNOW AND SLEET. SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATION AROUND
AN INCH. ICE ACCUMULATION AROUND A TRACE. NOT AS COOL WITH LOWS IN
THE MID 20S. EAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION NEAR
100 PERCENT.
.WEDNESDAY...FREEZING RAIN WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE MORNING...
THEN A CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE
AFTERNOON. ICE ACCUMULATION AROUND A TRACE. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S.
EAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH...BECOMING WEST WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH IN
THE AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION NEAR 100 PERCENT.

 

1 inch of snow followed by trace amounts of ice?

[Cashtown_Coop]

 

Whatever you're missing, I seem to be missing it as well.

 

yeah something is wrong with the grids.  Not even close to matching warnings.  these aren't bogus point and clicks but the regular text forecast.

 

[wxmeddler]

CTP Fail.

 

LWX>CTP any day.

[NeffsvilleWx]

I would only run the furnace..not the whole house.

if every breaker was off (including the main) except for the dryer & the furnace

wouldnt the dryer breaker work as a 30 amp main to power the panel & feed the furnace?

the 30amp dryer breaker would / should trip before any damage to the 220 wire?

i am no electrician as you can tell but i am curious as to the dangers of this set-up.

Hopefully. I'm not an electrician either. I know enough about power distribution to be dangerous, literally. Electronics are my thing.

[EasternUSWX]

Just talked to CTP met. He said ignore the point and clicks and follow the warning information. 

[Cashtown_Coop]

Just talked to CTP met. He said ignore the point and clicks and follow the warning information. 

It's not point and clicks, its the regular zone forecast.  whatever back to tracking

[Voyager]

Just talked to CTP met. He said ignore the point and clicks and follow the warning information. 

 

I wonder if were supposed to ignore the maps then as well. If so then our warning text is more in line with what Mount Holly's maps are showing.

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENINGTO 4 PM EST WEDNESDAY...* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...4 TO 8 INCHES.* ICE ACCUMULATIONS...0.10 TO 0.25 INCH.

[Eskimo Joe]

I wish people would cut CTP a break, they truly are between a rock and a hard place.

[Superstorm]

I never look at the point and clicks. Good way to get info out in a hurry but not necessarily the most reliable source.

[EasternUSWX]

It's not point and clicks, its the regular zone forecast.  whatever back to tracking

 

He said those things are dinosaurs and no one uses them. lol

[Cashtown_Coop]

I wish people would cut CTP a break, they truly are between a rock and a hard place.

trust me i do 9 times out of 10 but with warnings posted you can't call for 1" of snow and a trace of ice and without catching it.  I know many of the mets and respect them

[Cashtown_Coop]

He said those things are dinosaurs and no one uses them. lol

are you calling me old? watch it lol     I'm prob close to your age

[Voyager]

I wish people would cut CTP a break, they truly are between a rock and a hard place.

 

Nobody's bashing them, at least not me. I'm just looking for clarification of a major discrepancy....

[EasternUSWX]

are you calling me old? watch it lol     I'm prob close to your age

 

Lol, I am pretty good friends with DeVoir from up there. He knows what is up. Said stick to warning info for actual forecast.