EasternUSWX Posted February 5, 2014 Author Share Posted February 5, 2014 Here is outage summary as of right now in KY. Active Outages: 100 Affected Customers: 11,163 Only getting worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 I am no where near as knowledgeable as many of the other guys on this forum, but I believe rainfall rates may be too high for the ice to really accumulate dangerously. Definitely a possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 mupawx....you need to post less and read more.... Nut Lol, what? Lol, whaMuxa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexP Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 I remember a freezing rain event in NYC where the rain came down so heavily that it was more of a slush storm than an ice storm. I think it was during that crazy winter in 1994. I haven't seen anything like that since. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 5, 2014 Author Share Posted February 5, 2014 It doesn't help that a certain poster on this forum (from Franklin County) is reading the QPF output verbatim as the total ice accretion. No. I am reading the ZR output as ice. Then taking off a little. Also going by reports to our west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 So do you see 100% of Lancaster County losing power? Absolutely not. Total power loss will be less than 8% countywide. This number is based on the fact that Lancaster County has a population of approximately 500,000 people, and the SPIA index is currently a 1. Storms of that magnitude do not exceed 6% - 8% outages at a given time. Seriously. Mid Atlantic Weather, Storms, and Anomalies first raised this possibility a couple days ago wh he said he would not be surprised if there wasn't a "single tree left standing or person with power." That's a bit sensationalist. It will be ugly tomorrow morning, with power outages in areas. But a total Lancaster County (or anywhere for that matter) tree-collapser - this storm is not. A bit is the understatement of the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 5, 2014 Author Share Posted February 5, 2014 I am just going to laugh later when everyone is crying about how much ice they have. Going to be funny. KY is getting the same rates we will and they have .25-.50" already and they are still mid-storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mupawxnut Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 No. I am reading the ZR output as ice. Then taking off a little. Also going by reports to our west. Ok. So Eric Horst (the Millersville University meteorologist) is going with up to 0.5" tonightband tomorrow. Do you agree with his forecast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Here is outage summary as of right now in KY. Active Outages: 100 Affected Customers: 11,163 Only getting worse. a good bit of that area also has had winds around 15-20mph sustained for hours... NAM, RAP, HRRR all have lower winds and heavier rates for a shorter time period for around here... that is why I think KY situation is worst case and we likely wont be quite as bad as that... but still likely bad I dont disagree that there will be some trees down and some power outages but we will have a different situation than them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 5, 2014 Author Share Posted February 5, 2014 Ok. So Eric Horst (the Millersville University meteorologist) is going with up to 0.5" tonightband tomorrow. Do you agree with his forecast? Yes I think .4-.6" is a good possibility. I was just talking with him earlier on Facebook. Says seeing high amounts to west already, higher amounts have a good chance of happening here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 5, 2014 Author Share Posted February 5, 2014 a good bit of that area also has had winds around 15-20mph sustained for hours... NAM, RAP, HRRR all have lower winds and heavier rates for a shorter time period for around here... that is why I think KY situation is worst case and we likely wont be quite as bad as that... but still likely bad I dont disagree that there will be some trees down and some power outages but we will have a different situation than them 8-10kts here will not help the cause. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Lol this arguing over freezing rain is nuts. I'm patiently awaiting my sleeter!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 5, 2014 Author Share Posted February 5, 2014 Horst told me CTP is low balling on ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dcfox1 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 How would he or anyone for that matter be able to tell that Mupawxnut is just being a troll or drinking to much already Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Horst told me CTP is low balling on ice. They really need to update the warning. Been almost 6 hrs and seems like they're really downplaying the whole storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 The rates at the beginning of the storm look light to moderate now according SR model depiction. As the storm begins to ramp up, precip shield looks to blossom to our south as secondary takes over. Rates by then could be steady moderate to heavy until storm pulls away and finishes with a drizzle. The best timing for accretion might actually be the first 3 hours and last 2 hours of storm as a whole. Sure there will be accretion during heavy stuff, but a majority will be run off. I think the worst hit areas could see upwards of 0.5" accretion if everything aligns perfectly involving steady light-moderate rates, but the majority will be around 0.2-0.4" accretion. My main problem with this is in combination with the cement we got yesterday can cause tree branch issues and some power lines. Also, for those cars surrounded by the snow that froze up, this could help further cement that area and act as an anchor to your car. This will not be cataclysmic, world ending, day after tomorrow Canada '98 type deal. If we had any strong winds with this system, this would be incredibly bad. Anyone touring the notion that this event is potentially crippling is being recklessly irresponsible. Edit: This is my opinion for LNS and southern tier only. Out east by Zak, it could be worse based on NWS ice forecast products. Stay safe everyone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 00z NAM is still coming in hot with significant ZR liquid equiv for tonight into tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 5, 2014 Author Share Posted February 5, 2014 They really need to update the warning. Been almost 6 hrs and seems like they're really downplaying the whole storm. I think it is funny locations got a .50" ice storm in November in like the worst setup ever and now people think .50" is not possible in almost a perfect ice setup? um ok. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 5, 2014 Author Share Posted February 5, 2014 00z NAM is still coming in hot with significant ZR liquid equiv for tonight into tomorrow. ne.namacctype00-10.gif 1"+ here lol. Even take half away and i'm screwed. Show basically no other precip types either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Nws really needs to play up how bad this could be. My friend from chambersburg whose reasonably informed acted like no big deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Horst told me CTP is low balling on ice. This seems like an accurate statement. In all honesty, the HRRR has most of Lan Co. staying around 28 with moderate precip rates until precip tapers off. Doesn't look textbook for .5" ice accretion, but I think the warning could be upped to .25"-.5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 25.9 here and slowly rising...hoping that trend continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 00z NAM is still coming in hot with significant ZR liquid equiv for tonight into tomorrow. ne.namacctype00-10.gif Accretion vs. output. perhaps that / 2, then we're in the ballpark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 This seems like an accurate statement. In all honesty, the HRRR has most of Lan Co. staying around 28 moderate precip rates until precip tapers off. Doesn't look textbook for .5" ice accretion, but I think the warning could be upped to .25"-.5" This I agree with 100%. A lot of people around campus I talked to that aren't already met majors had no idea of the ice situation. They thought it was supposed to be snow to rain. They didn't hear about too much ice. Sigh. The public can be so misinformed in many ways whether be under forecasting or gross over forecasting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 5, 2014 Author Share Posted February 5, 2014 SREF mean now .50" for southern tier and even a pocket of .60" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Accretion vs. output. perhaps that / 2, then we're in the ballpark. Even .4"-.5" of ice is hard to imagine (at least for me) The (beautiful) 1.34km NAM is being run for the region and shows a few hours of IP with the rest being pure ZR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 5, 2014 Author Share Posted February 5, 2014 Run this loop. Southern tier now modeled to start as ZR. So All qpf goes to ZR. 1" with run off should lead to .5"+ http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/HRRRNE_CUR/cloop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 that .6 is litterally right under me.....ouch!! I hope this one DOES NOT VERIFY. Cant say I've looked at a model and thought that for some time. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 The precip starting to fire right now over the southern tier and md panhandle does not look like snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 5, 2014 Author Share Posted February 5, 2014 SUMMARY...FREEZING RAIN WILL DEVELOP EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS INTOTHE NRN DELMARVA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. RAIN RATES WILL LIKELYEXCEED 0.05 IN/HR. SLEET WILL BE COMMON ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OFPA THROUGH MIDNIGHT.DISCUSSION...MATURING WARM CONVEYOR WITH AN EXPANSIVE ZONE OFPRECIPITATION IS SPREADING ACROSS THE OH/TN VALLEY AND WILL SOONSPREAD ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN OF WRN PA/WV INTO WRN VA/MD AREA.ADDITIONALLY...WARM ADVECTION ACROSS THE DELMARVA APPEARS TO BEPRIMARILY RESPONSIBLE FOR RECENT RASH OF SHOWERS THAT HAVE DEVELOPEDACROSS THIS REGION. WEDGE OF COOL AIR WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE ISSEVERAL DEGREES BELOW FREEZING AT 02Z AND IS LIKELY ON THE ORDER OF1KM DEEP. THIS WILL GRADUALLY SHALLOW WITH TIME BUT SHOULD NOT WARMABOVE FREEZING IN MANY PLACES PRIOR TO 06Z.FARTHER NORTH...INITIAL PRECIPITATION WILL FALL IN THE FORM OFSLEET...OR PERHAPS EVEN SOME SNOW...ACROSS SRN PA. WITH TIME MUCHWARMER TEMPERATURES AROUND 2KM WILL SPREAD ATOP COOL BOUNDARY LAYERRESULTING IN SUFFICIENT MELTING FOR A SWITCH TO FREEZING RAIN AFTER06Z. PRECIPITATION RATES WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 0.10 INCH PER HOURIN PLACES AS WARM ADVECTION CREATES A FAVORABLE PROFILE FORSIGNIFICANT ICING. WBZ LEVELS REMAIN BELOW FREEZING ALONG THE I-95CORRIDOR FROM DC THROUGH BWI TO PHL. WHILE WARMING WILL EVENTUALLYDRIVE SFC TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING...THIS MAY NOT OCCUR UNTILAFTER 10Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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