Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,586
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    23Yankee
    Newest Member
    23Yankee
    Joined

Central PA and The Fringes - February 2014 Part II


Recommended Posts

  • Replies 1.2k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

15 at my house... a rare reading warmer than MDT... I think the snow stuck to the trees is helping hold my temps up a little... anyone else in wooded area noticing something similar?

Not sure about the trees but on my way to work, every time I went up even the smallest of hills the temp quickly went up. Seemed the valleys really bottomed out.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

10 degrees here this morningPREFERENCE: GFS/ECMWFCONFIDENCE: AVERAGENO SIGNIFICANT RUN-TO-RUN CHANGES WERE NOTED IN THE NAM SINCE 00Z. THE GFS HAS TRENDED A LITTLE DEEPER WITH THE INITIAL SURFACESURFACE LOW LIFTING FROM THE TN VALLEY TO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANSTUE NIGHT-WED MORNING.  OVERALL THE MODELS ARE FAIRLY WELLCLUSTERED AT 500MB-SURFACE THROUGH WED BUT SUBTLE DIFFERENCESREMAIN.  ONE OF THE MORE NOTED DIFFERENCES IS THAT THE NAM ISFASTER TO LIFT THE INITIAL LOW NORTHWARD INTO THE TN VALLEY TUEEVENING AND FROM THERE TRACKS THE LOW A LITTLE FURTHER WESTTHROUGH THE OH VALLEY WED MORNING THAN THE CURRENT MODELCONSENSUS.

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=pmdhmd

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I notice that the grid forecast for State College doesn't really match the warning language, doesn't match that accumulation map (which is weird in other ways, as has been pointed out), and is essentially the same grid forecast as for Philipsburg (in 'northern' Centre county, almost Clearfield county) and Bellefonte.  

 

Beyond that, in terms of the warmer 0z GFS, it's worth noting (and some of you were last night) that NWP often underdoes CAD just to the east of the Allegheny Front.  Now, that's critical for surface temperatures, of course; how that translates to temperatures aloft is somewhat more unclear.   Furthermore, as Heavy_Wx mentioned in his very nice analysis last night, the Euro handled yesterday's event much better than the GFS, especially with respect to certain features that will be important for determining how this event plays out.  The 0z Euro remained consistent in depicting a nearly-all-snow event for State College.    

 

I'm liking MAG's call of a six-inch line falling in the US 22 corridor.  My current call for State College is 8".  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

12" in 12 hours, now that would be something.

This system's moisture mass fields certainly show its potential. And having lived in these parts for 50+ yrs, I believe somewhere btwn Harrisburg-Chambersburg- State College area is going to get well over a foot! Just my opinion! Ice to end briefly in LSV...

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I notice that the grid forecast for State College doesn't really match the warning language, doesn't match that accumulation map (which is weird in other ways, as has been pointed out), and is essentially the same grid forecast as for Philipsburg (in 'northern' Centre county, almost Clearfield county) and Bellefonte.  

 

Beyond that, in terms of the warmer 0z GFS, it's worth noting (and some of you were last night) that NWP often underdoes CAD just to the east of the Allegheny Front.  Now, that's critical for surface temperatures, of course; how that translates to temperatures aloft is somewhat more unclear.   Furthermore, as Heavy_Wx mentioned in his very nice analysis last night, the Euro handled yesterday's event much better than the GFS, especially with respect to certain features that will be important for determining how this event plays out.  The 0z Euro remained consistent in depicting a nearly-all-snow event for State College.    

 

I'm liking MAG's call of a six-inch line falling in the US 22 corridor.  My current call for State College is 8".  

I think that's pretty reasonable.  One thing that could help us is the fact that precip looks pretty heavy almost right from the start.  I've seen that hold the sleet/zr at bay pretty effectively a couple of times here.  No shortage of moisture, that's for sure...great gulf connection.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Oops... probably should have shoveled that off yesterday. My car is now trapped in concrete base. Next will put on second layer tonight. lol

 

1604396_10152298419422009_1775796522_n.j

good luck with that. That's probably harder then a wedding peter.

 

I'm kinda hoping some of this snow melts off these trees today, if not and we get a couple inches of snow then sleet and ice, gone be big trouble fella's

Link to comment
Share on other sites

One thing to watch out for today is the convection and heavy rain that will be present in the southern Mississippi Valley. The bulk effect of this precipitation could increase the 500 mb height gradient and consolidate the vorticity maxima farther south. The 00z Euro/CMC/UKMET all suggest this to some degree and all of these models had greater QPF in this region today than the GFS. This is potentially why the 850 mb lows in the foreign models take a more southerly track and in turn have a sharper dip in 850 mb temperatures than the GFS in central PA.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

good luck with that. That's probably harder then a wedding peter.

 

I'm kinda hoping some of this snow melts off these trees today, if not and we get a couple inches of snow then sleet and ice, gone be big trouble fella's

it was so weird to not be able to see sunrise through the trees from my front window this morning with the snow on the trees blocking everything like they do in the middle of the summer

 

The link I am posting below has a 21 day free trial of their product if anyone wants to download it and view the dual pol data tonight to watch where the snow/sleet/rain/etc lines set up around the region... the product itself is expensive but I have used the trial before for potential mixing/ice events... http://www.grlevelx.com/gr2analyst/

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...