Powerball Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 12z NAM is farther south and a bit colder through 15z Saturday. 1000-850 critical thickness is south of I-80 and 850-700 critical thickness is along I-80. Sent from my SCH-I535 It still ended up NW/warmer. It just gets there with a somewhat sharper left turn a little later (flirting with dry slotting issues here now), which happens at an ideal time for Chicago's benefit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 going deep...sim radar looks like a classic...waa thump, pivot, and defo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Southern portions of the LOT CWA look "interesting", if the 12z NAM is right. I suppose even if temps reach 33-34 for a time, there may still be icy issues. Cold ground/surfaces, yada yada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
huronicane Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 12z NAM is farther south and a bit colder through 15z Saturday. 1000-850 critical thickness is south of I-80 and 850-700 critical thickness is along I-80. Sent from my SCH-I535 That makes me feel better after running through the bufkit profiles from 6z. Even though LL temps got to around -1 at their warmest, snow totals were painted between 8 and 12". Talk about heart attack snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Not really. It just show a somewhat sharper left turn a little later on (flirting with dry slotting issues here now), which happens at an ideal time for Chicago's benefit. Yeah, I misspoke a bit on farther south track, it was more so a bit colder than the previous run during the heaviest rates over northern IL, which is important to quell mixing concerns in most of the Chicago area. A sounding along I-80 and I-55 near JOT toes the 0 line at 18z at 850 but easily would support all snow due to good vv's at that time and is colder than that at 15z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtrackertf Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Man this might be mostly rain for me. Sucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Man this might be mostly rain for me. Sucks.I'll trust the euro/gfs vs the NAM. Day ago it was too weak with the low, and now it goes nw.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Looks like cyclone has a good chance of snapping his 6"+ futility streak. That's good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RJSnowLover Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 going deep...sim radar looks like a classic...waa thump, pivot, and defo Sounds like a beaut. You able to post it or have a link? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 would be my favorite storm of the year if it works out anything like that NAM run....Saturday, daylight, heavy cement...the best Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Sounds like a beaut. You able to post it or have a link? step forward from here http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=NAM&grid=221&model_yyyy=2014&model_mm=01&model_dd=31&model_init_hh=12&fhour=24¶meter=CREF&level=SURFACE&unit=none&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STL Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 would be my favorite storm of the year if it works out anything like that NAM run....Saturday, daylight, heavy cement...the best And model watching for Tuesday... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 step forward from here http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=NAM&grid=221&model_yyyy=2014&model_mm=01&model_dd=31&model_init_hh=12&fhour=24¶meter=CREF&level=SURFACE&unit=none&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false What kind of ratios you think you have lakefront? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Man this might be mostly rain for me. Sucks. Your still good with a 4-6" event. 2-3" front end and 2-3" on the back end. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 That makes me feel better after running through the bufkit profiles from 6z. Even though LL temps got to around -1 at their warmest, snow totals were painted between 8 and 12". Talk about heart attack snow. Even with the 6z NAM I wasn't all that concerned for north of I-80 areas. Hopefully the 12z GFS keeps the sleet/ice threat out of the metro too. Our southern counties are a different story though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
huronicane Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Even with the 6z NAM I wasn't all that concerned for north of I-80 areas. Hopefully the 12z GFS keeps the sleet/ice threat out of the metro too. Our southern counties are a different story though. I wasn't too concerned up here either, just anything cooler to help make the snow less wet and heavy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 It still ended up NW/warmer. It just gets there with a somewhat sharper left turn a little later (flirting with dry slotting issues here now), which happens at an ideal time for Chicago's benefit. It's definitely further south than the 6z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 What kind of ratios you think you have lakefront? i don't think the lake will make much difference but i'm only counting on 10:1 for the majority. WAA might be more like 12-14:1 but will only be a minor QPF player. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 LOT wx graphic. Looks good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 It's definitely further south than the 6z run. Meh. It looks to be a bit weaker, but it still ultimately gets to the thumb region like on the 06z run. At best, it probably led to merely cosmetic improvements for those riding the border right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 It's definitely further south than the 6z run. Agreed. This run keeps me below freezing while 6Z was >32F IMBY. Next I just want it to remain all (mostly) snow!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 NAM is juiced up and a tad north it looks like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 would be my favorite storm of the year if it works out anything like that NAM run....Saturday, daylight, heavy cement...the best The thing I love about heavy cement is its staying power. It takes a lot longer to melt! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Been a long time since i've had a nice heavy cement snow...even longer since i've had one that falls on top of a respectable existing snowpack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 jot to naper could see some big time rates in a few of the frames....20 to 22Z 01FEB LOT does very well overall We're in the sweet spot on this run. If GFS holds serve, WSW on the way in all likelihood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 I like 6.8" here for a call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Meh. It looks to be a bit weaker, but it still ultimately gets to the thumb region like on the 06z run. At best, it probably led to merely cosmetic improvements for those riding the border right now. To me, it looks more like Pt. Huron than the thumb on the 12z. But I won't split hairs. The bleeding's been stopped and for those of us on the line that's important. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
extremewx52 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Even with the 6z NAM I wasn't all that concerned for north of I-80 areas. Hopefully the 12z GFS keeps the sleet/ice threat out of the metro too. Our southern counties are a different story though. Have you taken a look at any of the Hi-Res guidance? Noticed they all have the 0*C 850 mb line approximately 50 miles further South than NAM/GFS/EURO. I wonder if this is a result of Hi-Res guidance producing more adiabatic cooling during the period of greatest lift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Have you taken a look at any of the Hi-Res guidance? Noticed they all have the 0*C 850 mb line approximately 50 miles further South than NAM/GFS/EURO. I wonder if this is a result of Hi-Res guidance producing more adiabatic cooling during the period of greatest lift. They've been slowly trending towards the model consensus with time. The 06z NMM and ARW for example are closer to what the other guidance depicts now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 12z NAM. Looks like 7-9" for NE IL. About 9" for Alek. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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