user13 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 You said Mondays our best shot , so I said nice call . I was arguing and hoping the NAM was right , but I admit was concerned after seeing the 0z GFS . ha lol i hope I get props for the Monday storm I was the first one calling it at 8am yesterday when no model was showing it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 lol i hope I get props for the Monday storm I was the first one calling it at 8am yesterday when no model was showing it Props . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Thank you, Don!This is why I keep recommending that people get this book. I'm almost done with volume one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
happy pappy Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 i am not the gospel. It is quite possible I will be wrong....I like to look at the math and the odds....odds change. RIGHT NOW, based on what I am seeing, i am not thrilled.good to know. Please get back to us when you are thrilled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Well the Euro didn't cut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Yea, a moderate snowstorm on the euro.. Overall Very nice run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Well the Euro didn't cut This is highly dependent on the axis of the trough in the Midwest and the blocking HP over SE Canada. Those two factors will make the output of the models vary from run to run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/ens/ens.html FEB 8th MECS----Major East Coast Storm Weenie Patrol Level Five you got questions?we got answers! just a bit of fun till the next run awesome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 6z gfs rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 31, 2014 Author Share Posted January 31, 2014 6z gfs rain. Well that sure went the other way lol good thing its still over a week away and will change many many times wolf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Basically a terrible outcome in this GFS run. No Monday storm, rain the 4-5 storm, rain the 8th storm. Not good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 31, 2014 Author Share Posted January 31, 2014 Basically a terrible outcome in this GFS run. No Monday storm, rain the 4-5 storm, rain the 8th storm. Not good All models seems to have those garbage runs periodically. Absolutely no panic here. Next weekend i highly doubt that will a warm storm for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rsteff Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Basically a terrible outcome in this GFS run. No Monday storm, rain the 4-5 storm, rain the 8th storm. Not good i am not worried about the 8th storm yet, but the 4-5 storm does not look good at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 This is why I keep recommending that people get this book. I'm almost done with volume one. I fully agree. It's an amazing set of books. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 i am not worried about the 8th storm yet, but the 4-5 storm does not look good at all If there is a decent support to indicate that the GFS is wrong already at just 72 hrs out, then why take anything it shows verbatim after that as anything more than a solution within a large range of possible ones? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 We're going into a different pattern now, with more southern stream systems over northern stream so the gfs could be far less effective in these matters over the Euro. The +NAO for example would support the euro depiction for Monday over the gfs, which could be playiing catchup to the Euro this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 31, 2014 Author Share Posted January 31, 2014 We're going into a different pattern now, with more southern stream systems over northern stream so the gfs could be far less effective in these matters over the Euro. The +NAO for example would support the euro depiction for Monday over the gfs, which could be playiing catchup to the Euro this time.Just posted something similar to the EURO being more in its wheel house with southern stream systems over the GFS. We all know the EURO has been a paper weight this season with its performance but i feel its in its comfort zone with southern stream systems overall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 The euro actually holds snowpack of greater than a foot all week long Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 The euro actually holds snowpack of greater than a foot all week long I didn't realize until now, but the Euro really has a nice front end snow thump on Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 I didn't realize until now, but the Euro really has a nice front end snow thump on Wednesday. Yes it does. We get like 5-7" I believe with not too much non frozen to melt after that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/medr.shtml Feb 7 set -up hard to see rain from a 24 hr extrap of this info (day 8) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 31, 2014 Author Share Posted January 31, 2014 Models still seem to have this storm one way or the other overnight so that is a plus. Going to be pretty interesting here starting sunday/monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 What a disaster this tread turned into Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 What a disaster this tread turned intoThis helps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 31, 2014 Author Share Posted January 31, 2014 This helps. LOL this happens when threats are still far off. Starting sunday/monday if this threat is still alive and well and i expect it to be it will start being more heavily moderated. No one should be panicking thats for sure, ace is our debbie downer so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 6Z GFS run has to be monitored to see if it was just a bad run or the start of a trend - after what happened to the mid - week storm turning into a cutter BUT stil too far out to come to any conclusions about any model run http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014013106/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_66.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 The focus should be on Monday , There are 2 systems before this one to deal with . Lot of ensemble support for this to the BM . So nothing has changed in my mind , but Monday 1st for me . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 31, 2014 Author Share Posted January 31, 2014 The focus should be on Monday , There are 2 systems before this one to deal with . Lot of ensemble support for this to the BM . So nothing has changed in my mind , but Monday 1st for me . Monday looks to drop a few inches as of now for coastal NJ ( yes monmouth county again ) and LI. Anything more would be a bonus for me, just interested in how the mid week storm will positively affect the weekend storm as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 I see this going one of three ways. The first scenario follows the 12z ECMWF. Good blocking locks in the arctic high and forces redevelopment. Second option is the high slides east and the system cuts. Third option is the energy slides under the ridge. Big hit for the SE states, suppression city up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 31, 2014 Author Share Posted January 31, 2014 I see this going one of three ways. The first scenario follows the 12z ECMWF. Good blocking locks in the arctic high and forces redevelopment. Second option is the high slides east and the system cuts. Third option is the energy slides under the ridge. Big hit for the SE states, suppression city up here.Well thank you captain obvious your input is greatly appreciated what would we do without you . You gotta admit though this threat has been pretty consistent and just have to hope that 50/50 from the wednesday storm and higher hieghts towards greenland materializes to help get this storm up the coast and to not be suppressed. I even as an amatuer doubts this would cut but it is an option. IMO either going to miss south or hits us a la a PDII redux Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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