IsentropicLift Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Euro is in it's own world. Alps runner to coastal hugger. Fast mover and warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 You don't see the notch in the isobars over the Delmarva there? My paid maps have more details, anyway look at the next hour and see the resulting coastal off of Cape Cod. look at the closed isobar just south of us... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 I`m still liking Monday . Im not sure I even want to take a serious look at this unless its thru the lense of the ensembles . yeah - that is our chance. The next two are nada.... we really need the nao to go negative soon. I did read in the SNE thread a few weeks ago (CoastalWx), that a lot of the analogs going forward had a *-nao developing by the end of February....It will surely be in place from March 15-May 31 to ruin Spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Euro is in it's own world. Alps runner to coastal hugger. Fast mover and warm. So it's goes through some dimensional rift from the US to Europe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Euro is in it's own world. Alps runner to coastal hugger. Fast mover and warm. I think it's pretty likely actually. There's nothing at all to lock cold air and confluence in place. Double cutters/Apps runners are possible on the 4th and 8th. We'll need a lot of luck and good timing to have a chance at much snow with either given the amplitude of the troughs out West. It's a great winter to be in Detroit-if these storms work out for them, I wonder if they can approach their all time record? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 yeah - that is our chance. The next two are nada.... we really need the nao to go negative soon. I did read in the SNE thread a few weeks ago (CoastalWx), that a lot of the analogs going forward had a *-nao developing by the end of February....It will surely be in place from March 15-May 31 to ruin Spring. You're right, let's just cancel February all together since clearly what the models show now is 100% going to happen exactly as depicted 6-9 days out. Even in the worst case with this storm, we'd still have several inches of front end snow as the low level cold is much stronger than the midweek storm, the PV is much more established and we have a lot of resistance for any cutting low. This could be another redeveloper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Euro is in it's own world. Alps runner to coastal hugger. Fast mover and warm. Well we have to pick one opinion of it or other. It can't be the correct solution one run, and then be in it's own world once it stops showing snowy solutions the next run. Unfortunately, it is now more in line with the majority of other model solutions. This week is quickly turning into a week of no substantial snows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Well we have to pick one opinion of it or other. It can't be the correct solution one run, and then be in it's own world once it stops showing snowy solutions the next run. Unfortunately, it is now more in line with the majority of other model solutions. This week is quickly turning into a week of no substantial snows completely agree w bolded and there has certainly been a shift in the guidance, its not like its in its own world... just as yesterday was too early to see a lot of the predictions and certainties for this storm being thrown around, today shouldnt be cause to right it off either.. patience.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Jeez. 120+ users in a thread for a storm 8 days away. I have never seen such madness before. Weren't some people cancelling December/January before it even began? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
happy pappy Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 fat lady is exercising her vocal cords on all three potentials..so the fat lady is warming up on a performance that is 9 days away? You are a piece of work Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Lets not forget the Euro holds back SW energy too long (bias) and is wildly inconsistent past 168hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Jeez. 120+ users in a thread for a storm 8 days away. I have never seen such madness before. Weren't some people cancelling December/January before it even began? People were canceling this winter in November, this isn't anything new. At least give this system and the one before it a few days before jumping to conclusions, it's not like these two events are happening in the next day or so where I could see the panic for last minute major shifts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
happy pappy Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 I think it's pretty likely actually. There's nothing at all to lock cold air and confluence in place. Double cutters/Apps runners are possible on the 4th and 8th. We'll need a lot of luck and good timing to have a chance at much snow with either given the amplitude of the troughs out West. It's a great winter to be in Detroit-if these storms work out for them, I wonder if they can approach their all time record? so the winter here has been horrible? Some of you guys crack me up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
happy pappy Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 People were canceling this winter in November, this isn't anything new. At least give this system and the one before it a few days before jumping to conclusions, it's not like these two events are happening in the next day or so where I could see the panic for last minute major shifts.it really is amazing isn't it. Guys canceling storms 9 days away and others wishing they were in Detroit. Heck it could snow 10 feet there and it would be the last city i would want to be in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 This pattern was touted by many as one that was going to be EPIC because of taking what the long range models say as gospel. However..as we get closer to the events they are becoming anything but EPIC... I think that is the point that some are trying to make. To many people look at the models with snow goggles on and they can not see when things are actually starting to slip away and become more unfavorable. This does not mean things can not change but right now it does not look nearly as EPIC as once thought! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 so the winter here has been horrible? Some of you guys crack me up. Winter here is clearly not horrible. We've had several significant storms, however, areas around Detroit might have one of their all time best winters ever, which I don't believe we will have Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 31, 2014 Author Share Posted January 31, 2014 it really is amazing isn't it. Guys canceling storms 9 days away and others wishing they were in Detroit. Heck it could snow 10 feet there and it would be the last city i would want to be in. Amem, detroit makes camden,NJ look like park avenue lol. But these solutions are going to change throughout the weekend and into next week. Those writing any storm off outside of even 120 hrs. Is foolish in a winter where none of the models have really performed awesome or even satisfactory Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 You're right, let's just cancel February all together since clearly what the models show now is 100% going to happen exactly as depicted 6-9 days out. Even in the worst case with this storm, we'd still have several inches of front end snow as the low level cold is much stronger than the midweek storm, the PV is much more established and we have a lot of resistance for any cutting low. This could be another redeveloper. where did I say cancel February? I can say with a certain degree of confidence - the way the storms evolve with tge -pna and no real 50/50 or nao block we wont see a prolonged period of snow with either system....can that change SURE. But it would be for the Feb 8 storm not the midweek cutter. Let me be clear, I am talking from a purely snowstorm perspective - can both events have snow->sleet->rain, sure....but if (IF) the mid week storm can somehow produce a 50/50 and pump up heights, even temporarily, in the nao region, the event next weekend can produce... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 so the winter here has been horrible? Some of you guys crack me up. That's exactly what I said!! Awesome reading comprehension. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 31, 2014 Author Share Posted January 31, 2014 where did I say cancel February? I can say with a certain degree of confidence - the way the storms evolve with tge -pna and no real 50/50 or nao block we wont see a prolonged period of snow with either system....can that change SURE. But it would be for the Feb 8 storm not the midweek cutter. Let me be clear, I am talking from a purely snowstorm perspective - can both events have snow->sleet->rain, sure....but if (IF) the mid week storm can somehow produce a 50/50 and pump up heights, even temporarily, in the nao region, the event next weekend can produce... That mid week storm is important to setup the 50/50 and pump heights up toward the greenland area. If it does not do that then it would give the weekend storm ALOT less chance of being a big storm for the EC. The teleconnectors really arent all too favorable for a big storm so we need ALL the help we can get temporarily for this storm to work out as all snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sickman Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 fat lady is exercising her vocal cords on all three potentials..Now see, last night I was willing to cut some slack, since there was some rampant weenieism going on in here... But then you make a post like that, which is just as bad, considering that we're 9 days out.Some things need to change in this forum... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 where did I say cancel February? I can say with a certain degree of confidence - the way the storms evolve with tge -pna and no real 50/50 or nao block we wont see a prolonged period of snow with either system....can that change SURE. But it would be for the Feb 8 storm not the midweek cutter. Let me be clear, I am talking from a purely snowstorm perspective - can both events have snow->sleet->rain, sure....but if (IF) the mid week storm can somehow produce a 50/50 and pump up heights, even temporarily, in the nao region, the event next weekend can produce... And that's prob the only way u can get there next sat. Is hav wed s system temporarily block and hav Saturdays forced underneath .. I just can't believe there isn't a bigger Curiosity about Monday. Strongest VV s come thru DC philly NYC and long island u sometimes get a more robust precip shield when u get lift like that right thru the area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 And that's prob the only way u can get there next sat. Is hav wed s system temporarily block and hav Saturdays forced underneath .. I just can't believe there isn't a bigger Curiosity about Monday. Strongest VV s come thru DC philly NYC and long island u sometimes get a more robust precip shield when u get lift like that right thru the area This whole pattern coming up was always a conditional one based on the storms being weak enough not to pump the SE Ridge without a decent block and having a strong enough surface high act a surrogate block since 500mb wasn't cooperating. It's a pretty wild thought that our biggest two events of the season may turn out to be rare Arctic wave 20:1+ ratio storms with temps in single digits near end. We can have a subpar February and still finish the season with above normal snowfall. I will give the JMA big props for seeing the cold potential in January back in November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 This whole pattern coming up was always a conditional one based on the storms being weak enough not to pump the SE Ridge without a decent block and having a strong enough surface high act a surrogate block since 500mb wasn't cooperating. It's a pretty wild thought that our biggest two events of the season may turn out to be rare Arctic wave 20:1+ ratio storms with temps in single digits near end. We can have a subpar February and still finish the season with above normal snowfall. I will give the JMA big props for seeing the cold potential in January back in November. It's weeklies for Feb are cold. Has the ridge week 1. But the heights are connected week 2 3 4 . I don't like Neg PNA Pos NAO regimes the WPO is neg but the EPO heads Pos it's ok to lose 1 player but when multiple indicies are unfavorable u hav to see at least proceed with caution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 This has turned into the banter thread. Where are the mods? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 The spread amongst the individual members for this threat from the 12z GEFS is enormous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 12z ECMWF ensemble mean looks nothing like the OP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Please Expain Ensembles? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Please Expain Ensembles? They have lots of moisture along the coast and it looks cold enough to snow, but we're talking about a day 8-9 mean. Looks like lots of spread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 They have lots of moisture along the coast and it looks cold enough to snow, but we're talking about a day 8-9 mean. Looks like lots of spread. Would rather the low was shown further SE of us this far out to avoid potential late NW tick. Looks like a bunch of ens members right near the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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