Tropopause_Fold Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 I normally use base, for some reason I was on composite tonight. USUALLY the differences are minor, how is the composite showing a band of heavy precip where there is none? I've seen it off by a few miles before, but that's nuts? Some of the BR tilts show the same thing....is it literally that it's virga, or that it's phantom echoes I'm between 10 and 11, that's all I'm comfortable saying as I don't play it by the book in terms of I cleared once all day. If someone nearby reported 9 wonderful I'm not going to argue. the composite image is a mosaic of the entire column that the radar sees - so basically all the scans the radar has available...and then the highest reflection value in that scan. so it's not uncommon at all to see it *way* over-estimating ground truth (not that BR .5 doesn't "lie"). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kulaginman Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 2.0" total here in Norwood. Nothing falling at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 What a great night gang. Great system to track, and an over-performer. Time to start looking towards round 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 the composite image is a mosaic of the entire column that the radar sees - so basically all the scans the radar has available...and then the highest reflection value in that scan. so it's not uncommon at all to see it *way* over-estimating ground truth (not that BR .5 doesn't "lie"). Yeah I'm not sure if people understand the algorithm for that. That's why it always seems to look "worse" than actuality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 SAGAMORE 10.0 1020 PM 12/20 TRAINED SPOTTER PLYMOUTH 7.0 1016 PM 12/20 2 FOOT DRIFTS SANDWICH 9.0 1026 PM 12/20 TRAINED SPOTTER None of those are particularly close (don't know where the plymouth one was taken but I'm guessing mid to north PYM) I'd say 10" is the safest play. It may have been more if I'd cleared as the first 1/3 of the storm had some water to it but I'm done. If someone nearby reported 11 or a little over I'd believe it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 GFS gives the outter cape about another .3" of liquid or so over the course of the next 24 hrs, which seems plausible. NAM is on crack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Yeah I'm not sure if people understand the algorithm for that. That's why it always seems to look "worse" than actuality. what sucks is when you accidentally click on it when a t-storm cell is approaching and it looks 100x worse than reality....then you realize it's a crappy 45dbz shower covering 1/10th of the area you thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryan Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 what a great night, probably one of the most fun I've had in a couple of winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Looks like another band off Cape Ann starting to pivot in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 GFS gives the outter cape about another .3" of liquid or so over the course of the next 24 hrs, which seems plausible. NAM is on crack. storm becomes an absolute beast south of nova scotia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ackwaves Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Nothing wrong with the returns down here. Sn. 1/2 Sm Vis. 30f. About 7"-8". Wind making real hard to measure. Big gusts making Big drifts. I'm out. Enjoy everyone. Catch you in the AM. Cheers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 What a great night gang. Great system to track, and an over-performer. Time to start looking towards round 2. now we just all need to add 12-18 on this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 check this out....how awesome is it? I'm not sure I've ever seen a dry hole like that in the middle of a winter storm. http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satellite/displaySat.php?region=ALB&itype=wv&size=large&endDate=20101221&endTime=-1&duration=5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CCPSUSuperstorm2010 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Conservatively I would go with a total of 12" for Harwich, MA right now, but would not be surprised for a final of 13 or 13.5" of snow. Band two should be here around or after 2am if models are correct and the drier low level air does not impede the snowfall. Nothing right now. Storm looks just about stalled east of CHH, could be a potential push west in the short term on water vapor imagery. Hopefully the WED event is still going to happen. I know once you have snow, you want more, I am glad I have what I have, if this morning had played out throughout this evening, I would have screamed, I just say imagine if that band had stalled about 20 miles further west. Oh well 11-13" of snow is nothing to sneeze at and I am quite greatful. Good night everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 now we just all need to add 12-18 on this weekend. Hopefully everyone can get involved with this one! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 now we just all need to add 12-18 on this weekend. I'm onboard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 GFS gives the outter cape about another .3" of liquid or so over the course of the next 24 hrs, which seems plausible. NAM is on crack. Take a peek at the stuff blossoming in GOM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Hey anyone have something like this that's easier to save? I've never seen anything like it and it's probably no wonder that as it tightened up like it did - that's when we got blitzed. http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satellite/displaySat.php?region=BWI&itype=wv&size=large&endDate=20101221&endTime=-1&duration=9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CCPSUSuperstorm2010 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Storm is an absolute monster right now southeast of Nantucket, MA. Could be reforming the surface low to the northeast based upon satellite imagery. I hope not. Anyways good night everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 check this out....how awesome is it? I'm not sure I've ever seen a dry hole like that in the middle of a winter storm. http://www.rap.ucar....e=-1&duration=5 WOWWW screen saver....white hurricane? anyhow What a BAND>......thing got re-energized and dropped 3/4 inch in 25 minutes....NOPE that's for real. there was even a couple yellow speks on radar as it crossed.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 21, 2010 Author Share Posted December 21, 2010 We'll pick up another 2-4 Wed. I'm on the train. Also I maintain we're not done. We'll likely pick up the GOM stuff towards morning which was what both NAM/GFS were trying to advertise. We're not done by a long shot. And just when it all exits, we're within 3 days of the weekend event and hopefully that holds together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Wednesday into Thursday looks real interesting on both the NAM/GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 We'll pick up another 2-4 Wed. I'm on the train. Also I maintain we're not done. We'll likely pick up the GOM stuff towards morning which was what both NAM/GFS were trying to advertise. We're not done by a long shot. And just when it all exits, we're within 3 days of the weekend event and hopefully that holds together. Yeah..the usually conservative GFS gives a couple inches to ENE Wednesday. I'd go 1-3" for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 buddy finally measured in winthrop with proper technique 2.75 inches winthrop by the sea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Wednesday into Thursday looks real interesting on both the NAM/GFS. Hit the other thread for that disco. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Impressive. Just got back from working in Northampton and this system has gotten ambient snow all the way back to Greenfield. 26/16 -sn Happy Winter Solstice! Walking the dog I got the distinct feeling something big was coming. Hope it's this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Staring at the stuff coming down while watching the bears. nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 what a great night, probably one of the most fun I've had in a couple of winters. How much do you have all told Bryan? You seemed to be doing ok last night and then today was pretty good in your area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 The rapid refresh (HRRR) is showing a punch of dry air at H85 moving in from the NE that is cutting off the precip on the back side of that band. That's why the composite and base radars are off so much and we're getting some 30dbZ vriga. It's probably helping to explain some of the forcing too. Well that expains why I was calling home saying "look out side look outside, i'm sure it is snowing" and all I got back was "no its not" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Well that expains why I was calling home saying "look out side look outside, i'm sure it is snowing" and all I got back was "no its not" lol...yeah it sucks. I called my mom in MHT while it was halfway through Rockingham County telling her to be ready.oops Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.