mahk_webstah Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 what our families must think of us..... well we can hope for wednesday to at least cover the ground and then there seem to be good signs for the weekend but I'm trusting nothing this year on the models more than three days out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 21, 2010 Author Share Posted December 21, 2010 Just back in from shoveling. Those new fallen crystals glistening in the streetlight....a beautifully changed landscape. The plows are out. My criteria for snow is it has to cover the tops of the grass. AS this goes, this event passes with flying colors. Long live winter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Think I'm done for the night. No schools cancelled down here kind of insane really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtticaFanatica Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Doesn't look like the radar matches up well with what we saw on our walk back, pretty pedestrian... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Dry airs eating up some of the stuff coming down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 snows been getting blown off these chairs the last hour or two figured I'd better get a shot now. That one chair is fairly well protected out back as is the one on the right as the back is solid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 back deck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 more in the am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bruschi Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Total as of 12:30 am is 9.5 in in centerville. Took about 15 measurements all around my acre property. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryan Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 How much do you have all told Bryan? You seemed to be doing ok last night and then today was pretty good in your area. My property sucks for undisturbed measurements, but roughly i'd say i ended up with 8" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Nice event for the SE areas...we got like 0.4" right now....snow has abated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 /nzucker/ snow cant fall on the Cape because of too warm temps, and snow cant fall in BOS because it isn't snowing at Dobbs Ferry /nzucker/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 /nzucker/ snow cant fall on the Cape because of too warm temps, and snow cant fall in BOS because it isn't snowing at Dobbs Ferry /nzucker/ He is already saying to raise the QPF in SE NY for the Xmas system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 He is already saying to raise the QPF in SE NY for the Xmas system. 2 feet in CPK baby! Breaks feb '10. I do kind of see his point.. the qpf does seem low for such a track, but maybe there is a meteorological reason for it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 He is already saying to raise the QPF in SE NY for the Xmas system. Pie on the face is something anyone needs to experience. I have experienced it many times. I have always said many times...but you have to admit your busts or you will never get better. I've always found those who do not admit busts and rationalize themselves are doomed to become basically "weenies/bad forecasters"...and that is not a good place to be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Pie on the face is something anyone needs to experience. I have experienced it many times. I have always said many times...but you have to admit your busts or you will never get better. I've always found those who do not admit busts and rationalize themselves are doomed to become basically "weenies/bad forecasters"...and that is not a good place to be. 100% agree. In synoptic class we used to have to keep a journal of our forecasts and then write a postmortem for what went wrong. If you don't admit your busts and where you failed you don't learn. The models are far from perfect and there's always going to be busts. Confidence is fine and I love hearing differing opinions that are backed up with scientific reasoning, but I hate any forecast that says "this is definitely going to be what happens" and then have it continually stuffed down our throats./rant p.s...I like you zuck, but you deserved a little grilling there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Pie on the face is something anyone needs to experience. I have experienced it many times. I have always said many times...but you have to admit your busts or you will never get better. I've always found those who do not admit busts and rationalize themselves are doomed to become basically "weenies/bad forecasters"...and that is not a good place to be. Agree strongly.. you have to make a very conscious effort to keep it honest and grade oneself or you will never learn. It is so easy to lie to oneself and gloss over the failures and exaggerate the successes (this applies to anything in life really). Personally I was pretty convinced this storm was going to be closer to the coast, especially once the models all converged at 72-84hrs out, I figured the chance it would be a complete whiff for me was like 1 in 10 or less. Probably too aggressive in retrospect, although I still think it is surprising it shifted so far east with that kind of model agreement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 100% agree. In synoptic class we used to have to keep a journal of our forecasts and then write a postmortem for what went wrong. If you don't admit your busts and where you failed you don't learn. The models are far from perfect and there's always going to be busts. Confidence is fine and I love hearing differing opinions that are backed up with scientific reasoning, but I hate any forecast that says "this is definitely going to be what happens" and then have it continually stuffed down our throats. /rant p.s...I like you zuck, but you deserved a little grilling there. I like him too, but he deserved a lot of grilling for his "exact forecasts"..esp for the Cape...he completely ignored my sounding post that said if 980mb was the WBZ, it would be snow on the Cape despite the model sfc temps of 40F. It was obvious the Cape had a chance...though I totally screwed the pooch too on how much they would get. But I knew they had a shot. You don't look at model sfc temps that far out...you look at soundings. It screamed 33F wet snow for the Cape for awhile before they flipped 340 wind where they went 29F and heavy snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 He is already saying to raise the QPF in SE NY for the Xmas system. I mean there are reasons you wouldn't get huge QPF here....not a STJ storm and the westerly flow behind the other Atlantic low. HM explained in way better detail. But I still think a 970mb low passing from NJ to LI is going to put down more than .75-1" here, that is really a joke. Pie on the face is something anyone needs to experience. I have experienced it many times. I have always said many times...but you have to admit your busts or you will never get better. I've always found those who do not admit busts and rationalize themselves are doomed to become basically "weenies/bad forecasters"...and that is not a good place to be. Oh yeah, I totally busted on the Cape where I thought the warm temperatures and NE winds would make it hard to get a big snowstorm, but I'm really glad I played this storm conservatively overall. This basically turned into a non-event outside of a tiny area although just by a scrape...there was sort of a hint for a while the ridge axis would be offshore though and the PV phase early always seemed like a fragile connection. I'm always happy when I beat the ECM 3-4 days out anyway even if I don't understand MVY climo very well. I definitely hand it to you and Dendrite for knowing the ins and outs of how the area does, though, bad call on my part to go so conservative for SE MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 snow backing in again.....heaviest again should be cape and islands. everything is snow covered here in framingham beautiful site. beautiful non event that only got a fraction of the area.....zuck is better than the ecwmf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 snow backing in again.....heaviest again should be cape and islands. everything is snow covered here in framingham beautiful site. beautiful non event that only got a fraction of the area.....zuck is better than the ecwmf I don't see the snow really backing in on radar, it looks as if it will be mostly limited to some lighter accumulations on the Cape. There is a good band near Maine but it looks like some subsidence is really preventing it from moving southwest. On the overall track, I went with this being mostly an offshore storm/grazer...that's what it was for the most part although a few people on the Cape got legitimate totals and some light snow extended up to BOS and suburbs. Definitely a much more realistic track prediction than the SNE HECS and I-95 HECS the ECM showed on the 0z/12z sequence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Radar does look a bit better for extreme SE areas now. Also some light snow showers over CT too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Awesome event for the Cape--congrats!! Will--I see you reported .4". Where about did the 2" line set up, 495 corridor? Not a flake as far as I can tell in GC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Light snow flying around out there now. More like heavy heavy flurries Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CCPSUSuperstorm2010 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 This storm was awesome. I am taking my humble pie, I didn't even issue a formal snowfall map because I thought it was going to be less of an event, wow was I wrong. Christmas weekend storm, it is better to go high then low with this storm. It has so much potential given the PNA ridging the models are seeing and highly amplified North American flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 I mean there are reasons you wouldn't get huge QPF here....not a STJ storm and the westerly flow behind the other Atlantic low. HM explained in way better detail. But I still think a 970mb low passing from NJ to LI is going to put down more than .75-1" here, that is really a joke. Oh yeah, I totally busted on the Cape where I thought the warm temperatures and NE winds would make it hard to get a big snowstorm, but I'm really glad I played this storm conservatively overall. This basically turned into a non-event outside of a tiny area although just by a scrape...there was sort of a hint for a while the ridge axis would be offshore though and the PV phase early always seemed like a fragile connection. I'm always happy when I beat the ECM 3-4 days out anyway even if I don't understand MVY climo very well. I definitely hand it to you and Dendrite for knowing the ins and outs of how the area does, though, bad call on my part to go so conservative for SE MA. lol, Zuckertubesocks, like a ripped Superhero,leaps out from behind a dusty stack of 'Boy's Life' magazines and subdues the Evil Euro with a pair of extra high, double striped knee highs. "Take that you evil model, your high verification scores are no match for me. I am Zuckertubesocks, To the benchmark and Beyond......" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 heavy heavy snow here at work in chelmsford. around .5 new since i got here at 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 heavy heavy snow here at work in chelmsford. around .5 new since i got here at 2 That's like .10" pr/hr, blinding.lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CCPSUSuperstorm2010 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 We will have to fight warm air all day, especially if the precip lightens up. This stinks. lol Schools are canceled on the outer Cape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 <br />That's like .10" pr/hr, blinding.lol<br /><br /><br /><br />heh. vis is under 1 mi. Looks like a .5"/hr rate or so. very nice sg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.