Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,586
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    23Yankee
    Newest Member
    23Yankee
    Joined

1/28-2/1: Multiple winter storm threats per models


GaWx

Recommended Posts

I'm on my crappy Blackberry and can't see the snowfall map well, but this looks like the most snow (farthest west) of any GFS run so far, wrt this system.

It is Cold. Not in our neck of the woods but the gfs has decided to come back to the party. At the front door anyway.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 1.8k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Actually the GFS has a nice storm off the coast Thursday morning...A 200 mile trend is not impossible at this time frame in the models. I think there are way more questions than answers at the moment, and I will be interested to see what happens with the GEFS and the EURO tonight and the runs through tomorrow.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I mean, it would be one thing if this was the 324 hour GFS -- but this is starting at 68 hours on the NAM.

Does everybody realize just how rare an event this would be? I don't think I really know. Once in 500 years?

 

 

IKR. Hard to imagine over inch of ice with temps near 25.

 

Would not be good for that area. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Complicated mess this is. The gfs is actually more progressive with the southern stream while the nam is further west with the northern stream. Could be a case where the gfs is too fast/dominate with the northern stream. Not there yet but certainly a good trend in the right direction for those in the north. If only we can keep it going over the next few runs.

 

I'm probably wishcasting which is why I kept it in banter but I think the GFS is finally catching on. I thought the 18z NAM was garbage and thankfully 00z proved that. I really have a hard time buying that over the next few runs the GFS doesn't latch on to the idea of that southern energy staying stronger longer. Energy out west is still anyone's guess until Monday.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

It is Cold. Not in our neck of the woods but the gfs has decided to come back to the party. At the front door anyway.

Thanks! It's better. Good trend. Better than what I thought it would show. The streams still don't look that close to phasing to me. Maybe we need a kicker to kick that SW vort out faster. I think the northern energy will come in stronger as we get closer.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Complicated mess this is. The gfs is actually more progressive with the southern stream while the nam is further west with the northern stream. Could be a case where the gfs is too fast/dominate with the northern stream. Not there yet but certainly a good trend in the right direction for those in the north. If only we can keep it going over the next few runs.

My guess, and only a guess is that the GFS and its progressive northern bias and the euro with its holding energy back in the SW.  IF* the ENS of both models didn't look much better/wetter than the op runs, I would say we were all in trouble...

Link to comment
Share on other sites

It's pretty unreal the changes in the precipitation output & H5 from 18z -> 00z GFS along the gulf coast. I had a feeling the GFS may cave slightly, but not wholesale changes in one run.

 

Both the NAM and GFS agree on ice in Destin Tuesday night.... that's just unreal.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Hmmm, maybe I didn't wait long enough 72 hour map didn't look so hot, but at 84, it's getting juiced up over the gulf and extreme SE N.C. Much better than 12z.

 

You were right, I thought it looked better too, the precip field did go further NW, not a ton but looks like GFS.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

It's kind of like the GFS in N.C./S.C but more like the NAM with colder/wetter solution on the Gulf Coast. Bottom line: reversed itself considerably from 12z trend.

 

You were right, I thought it looked better too, the precip field did go further NW, not a ton but looks like GFS.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...