Atlantic Tropical Action 2014

[Ground Scouring]

Hitting as nothing more than a Tropical Storm however.

But it's in a nice col region in the ~48 hours before landfall, and shear is quite low. Given that the system will be in a moist environment in the short term and is already producing strong winds just above the surface, any increase in organization could be quite rapid in the Bahamas. Assuming that the track on the GFS occurs, is my logic correct?

[CCHurricane]

But it's in a nice col region in the ~48 hours before landfall, and shear is quite low. Given that the system will be in a moist environment and is already producing strong winds just above the surface, any increase in organization could be quite rapid in the Bahamas. Assuming that the track on the GFS occurs, is my logic correct?

Yes, I just wonder if the GFS is understimating the strength significantly, would that also not effect the corresponding track?

[CCHurricane]

Gotta take intensity at this point with a grain of salt.

And we can't forget that it's also the 18z GFS which has been the most inaccurate/inconsistent model throughout the period of this Invest.

[stormspotterlive]

It might try for a Phase as it is off the SE GA coast at hour 147 and staring to get a tad stronger.

[AvantHiatus]

The setup into the mid-range looks like Arthur, displaced westward. Cristobal would no doubt ride the entire East Coast.

[stormspotterlive]

The setup into the mid-range looks like Arthur, displaced westward. Cristobal would no doubt ride the entire East Coast.

Yeah and if it can get a good phase it might be rather interesting. That is a Big IF though. For all we know 00z could go even more west or back to OTS

[AvantHiatus]

Yeah and if it can get a good phase it might be rather interesting. That is a Big IF though. For all we know 00z could go even more west or back to OTS

Partial phase at Hr. 180. The wavelengths are not quite sharp enough due to the time of year.

[Chaser25973]

Partial phase at Hr. 180. The wavelengths are not quite sharp enough due to the time of year.

NATL_VRTHGTGRD_500mb_180.gif

 

Where would the phase bring this storm?

[AvantHiatus]

Where would the phase bring this storm?

Into the NE or Nova Scotia, depends on the timing. We should wait to see if there is any support from the Euro and GFS ensembles.

[N. OF PIKE]

Fwiw nhc area discussion for key west, miami , and Melbourne write this off . I just went thru them all and i think Jacksonville is only one to even mention slight track uncertainty.

[packbacker]

18z NAVGEM is interesting...

 

 

[Wannabehippie]

Could this be Sandy II  for New Jersey ?

I think that is one of the two open wave centers. I do not see any thing that indicates that there is a closed circulation at the 65W 16N area.

[andyhb]

18z NAVGEM is interesting...

 

And the NAVGEM comes out. This thread is becoming a laugh-fest.

 

The amount of speculation and poor approaches to model analysis here is ridiculous. Can't some people just sit back, read what Phil/etc. posts and wait for the outcome instead of wishcasting the storm to their location?

[CCHurricane]

And the NAVGEM comes out. This thread is becoming a laugh-fest.

 

The amount of speculation and poor approaches to model analysis here is ridiculous. Can't some people just sit back, read what Phil/etc. posts and wait for the outcome instead of wishcasting the storm to their location?

I don't believe I've seen anyone wishcasting over the past 10 pages to be honest. I don't see any harm in posting model results when you are 120-144 hours away from an event. If anything it will be a learning process of how much things can, and have changed.

 

If the models can speculate, and that is exactly what they've been doing, I don't see any harm in members also speculating IF it is backed up through some logic.

Just my 2 cents though!

[packbacker]

And the NAVGEM comes out. This thread is becoming a laugh-fest.

The amount of speculation and poor approaches to model analysis here is ridiculous. Can't some people just sit back, read what Phil/etc. posts and wait for the outcome instead of wishcasting the storm to their location?

Hold up slick...nothing wrong with looking at the NAVGEM, it had a big upgrade last year, higher resolution. That run did back up what the 18z GFS showed, just something else to look at. Your silly post is what causes threads to go haywire.

[phil882]

Just to illustrate this. Ensembles are still very much all over the place.

 

Thanks for posting the ECMWF ensembles... again good luck trying to forecast with any degree of certainty beyond 48 hours. This is one of those marginal solutions that if 96L moves just a little further west than forecast the first 24-48 hours, it can get under the building ridge over the central-eastern US and fail to get picked up by the trough. It seems the ECMWF are pretty much 50-50 on the trough capturing the system. If it misses, the chance of east coast landfall go up quite a bit!

[Derecho!]

looks like about a few more GFS ensemble members hit Florida at 18z, instead of just one at 12z.

[SouthernWx2]

Hitting as nothing more than a Tropical Storm however.

 

Hitting as nothing more than a Tropical Storm however.

Moving WNW under a ridge over high heat content water around the Bahamas (and 30-31 c sst)......that's how Andrew and the 1935 Labor Day hurricane bombed out.  While I'd never forecast anything that extreme.....not from a system this disorganized, IF the 18z GFS and 12z CMC are correct, a major hurricane intensifying rapidly at landfall wouldn't surprise me.  Cleo almost made it too cat-3 in late August 1964 just in the 18 hours it took too cross from Cuba to Miami.  

 

Right now I rate the odds better than 50/50 it recurves, but if it doesn't.....someone is likely in for a world of hurt

[Hoosier]

And the NAVGEM comes out. This thread is becoming a laugh-fest.

 

The amount of speculation and poor approaches to model analysis here is ridiculous. Can't some people just sit back, read what Phil/etc. posts and wait for the outcome instead of wishcasting the storm to their location?

 

 

 

Some models are obviously more skilled than others and should be weighted accordingly but with this potentially being within 4 or 5 days of a U.S. landfall and having a wide spread in outcomes, there's no harm in looking at as much data as possible.  

[N. OF PIKE]

Thanks for posting the ECMWF ensembles... again good luck trying to forecast with any degree of certainty beyond 48 hours. This is one of those marginal solutions that if 96L moves just a little further west than forecast the first 24-48 hours, it can get under the building ridge over the central-eastern US and fail to get picked up by the trough. It seems the ECMWF are pretty much 50-50 on the trough capturing the system. If it misses, the chance of east coast landfall go up quite a bit!

Phil is there confidence in the overall Size of this circulation come Sunday, I.E small(compact) or larger circulation.

[Srain]

Thanks for posting the ECMWF ensembles... again good luck trying to forecast with any degree of certainty beyond 48 hours. This is one of those marginal solutions that if 96L moves just a little further west than forecast the first 24-48 hours, it can get under the building ridge over the central-eastern US and fail to get picked up by the trough. It seems the ECMWF are pretty much 50-50 on the trough capturing the system. If it misses, the chance of east coast landfall go up quite a bit!

Another point is there is some increasing southwesterly shear across the Central Caribbean in the wake of EPAC TS Marie exiting off to the WNW. Hispaniola is notorious for creating havoc when we have a disorganized disturbance tracking just N of the Coast. Where this disturbance exits and how close to Andros Island in the Southern Bahamas it actually ends up, will have significant impacts on where it will track and likely more westerly as it misses the trough. If we see the disturbance slip NW after passing Haiti toward the Turks and Caicos or further E, then the re-curve scenario would be favored. The faster track since yesterday has likely led to some of the shifts seen in some of the guidance. If this survives its encounter with Hispaniola, then a slow process of strengthening is possible. This part of the world is tricky to forecast. We can look back to 2005 and see some similarities with Rita for example.

[Kory]

Another point is there is some increasing southwesterly shear across the Central Caribbean in the wake of EPAC TS Marie exiting off to the WNW. Hispaniola is notorious for creating havoc when we have a disorganized disturbance tracking just N of the Coast. Where this disturbance exits and how close to Andros Island in the Southern Bahamas it actually ends up, will have significant impacts on where it will track and likely more westerly as it misses the trough. If we see the disturbance slip NW after passing Haiti toward the Turks and Caicos or further E, then the re-curve scenario would be favored. The faster track since yesterday has likely led to some of the shifts seen in some of the guidance. If this survives its encounter with Hispaniola, then a slow process of strengthening is possible. This part of the world is tricky to forecast. We can look back to 2005 and see some similarities with Rita for example.

Looks like the shear is helping to ventilate the storm to the North and East.

[CCHurricane]

Pretty significant shift on the 18z HWRF.

[Wannabehippie]

Maybe I am just talking out of my ass, but won't the models be all over the place (as they are now) until a well defined center of circulation develops?

[phil882]

Phil is there confidence in the overall Size of this circulation come Sunday, I.E small(compact) or larger circulation.

 

Well The system is already fairly large in size, and if the storm undergoes a substantial trough interaction (the further north and east solutions) the storm will likely only grow its wind field further. Most of the deterministic guidance I've seen keeps this as a fairly large tropical cyclone and I'd be inclined to agree barring any substantial environmental changes. 

 

 

Another point is there is some increasing southwesterly shear across the Central Caribbean in the wake of EPAC TS Marie exiting off to the WNW. Hispaniola is notorious for creating havoc when we have a disorganized disturbance tracking just N of the Coast. Where this disturbance exits and how close to Andros Island in the Southern Bahamas it actually ends up, will have significant impacts on where it will track and likely more westerly as it misses the trough. If we see the disturbance slip NW after passing Haiti toward the Turks and Caicos or further E, then the re-curve scenario would be favored. The faster track since yesterday has likely led to some of the shifts seen in some of the guidance. If this survives its encounter with Hispaniola, then a slow process of strengthening is possible. This part of the world is tricky to forecast. We can look back to 2005 and see some similarities with Rita for example.

 

That's a good point. It looks like the GFS though has had a reasonable handle on the southwesterly flow in the Caribbean related to Marie. On the other hand, the GFS thought 96L would be a good 5 degrees south and east of where the current broad low level circulation is right now

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014082218/gfs_vort850_uv200_watl_comp0.html

[AutoPenalti]

18z NAVGEM is interesting...

What the...?

[Srain]

The Canadian and NAVGEM are typically for entertainment purposes only when looking at the Tropics.

 

00Z early tracks and intensity guidance...

 

 

[phil882]

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2014082218/gfs-ememb_lowlocs_watl.html

 

This is a fun animation of the 18z GEFS forecast normalized spread with MSLP minima overlaid (roughly where you would expect the position of future 96L to be in the ensemble members).

 

Three distinct camps oriented from southwest to northeast appear to emerge by 96 hours. The first camp is the furthest northeast just west of Bermuda (early and full capture of mid-latitude trough). The second camp doesn't make it as far northeast is in between the Bahamas and Bermuda (delayed or partial capture of mid-latitude trough). The final group is the one most of us have been focusing on because it maintains 96L on a slow wnw heading towards Florida and the southeastern coastline (trough does not produce large enough weakness to capture system).

 

While the GEFS still suggests the majority of its members are northeast of the deterministic run, keep in mind the ECMWF had more even spread with its ensemble members from southwest to northeast. Alot of the northern members are also suggesting 96L doesn't make it much beyond the longitude of Hispaniola before it starts moving significantly northward. Thus the short term forecast is quite important for this particular system, especially since the llc isn't well defined yet. 

[Ground Scouring]

Remember Debby 2000...Hispaniola could do some weird things to the center, pulling the southern vortex into land (via orographic effects) and stretching vorticity from NE to SW. If that's the case, then 96L may slow down in the next 24 hours, allowing it to reform its center farther north, deepen more, and feel the trough to its north--a situation favoring recurvature. Tonight's 00Z ECMWF is the most important model to watch. If it holds with its path, then recurve off the East Coast is practically certain. If the southern vortex were to hold and continue WNW over the next 24 hours, then a hit in southern FL would be more probable.

[Stebo]

Remember Debby 2000...Hispaniola could do some weird things to the center, pulling the southern vortex into land (via orographic effects) and stretching vorticity from NE to SW. If that's the case, then 96L may slow down in the next 24 hours, allowing it to reform its center farther north, deepen more, and feel the trough to its north--a situation favoring recurvature. Tonight's 00Z ECMWF is the most important model to watch. If it holds with its path, then recurve off the East Coast is practically certain.

I don't know how you can say that with certainty based upon one model especially with the models trending to the left through the day today and the system's quick forward momentum to the WNW.