EasternUSWX Posted August 23, 2014 Share Posted August 23, 2014 There is a noticeable swirl in the Turks and Caicos area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ground Scouring Posted August 23, 2014 Share Posted August 23, 2014 There is a noticeable swirl in the Turks and Caicos area. I think that's going to become the main center. It's in the same area that the easterly guidance picks up on a center. That makes recurvature offshore virtually certain if it becomes the main center (NE of Great Inagua). Voritcity is increasing in the area and some convection is firing just east of the swirl. The swirl also appears to be heading NW, as the FIM9 indicates. Given its small size and low environmental shear, an LLC could spin up rather quickly. Models have also been trending weaker with the ridge over the Southeast in two days. Everything points to a recurve, including the 12Z ECMWF now coming in. Again, this is just extrapolation based on satellite trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted August 23, 2014 Share Posted August 23, 2014 EasternUSWx it is now appearing more on that loop you posted.. Looks like that little spin will pass within 10 miles of this Wunderground reporting station (South shore on Turtle Tail) that i linked in last post. Barometric pressure as of 2:49 p.m is 29.73 there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CCHurricane Posted August 23, 2014 Share Posted August 23, 2014 I think that's going to become the main center. It's in the same area that the easterly guidance picks up on a center. That makes recurvature offshore virtually certain if it becomes the main center (NE of Great Inagua). Voritcity is increasing in the area and some convection is firing just east of the swirl. The swirl also appears to be heading NW, as the FIM9 indicates. Given its small size and low environmental shear, an LLC could spin up rather quickly. Models have also been trending weaker with the ridge over the Southeast in two days. Everything points to a recurve, including the 12Z ECMWF now coming in. Again, this is just extrapolation based on satellite trends. Only one issue I have here, and that is that pretty much all guidance has the LP passing through the current location, regardless of OTS or Re-curve outcome. Just my own 2 cents, but I believe this curves OTS as well unless speed/strength drastically changes. Still 100+ hours out though so anything can happen I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted August 23, 2014 Share Posted August 23, 2014 Only one issue I have here, and that is that pretty much all guidance has the LP passing through the current location, regardless of OTS or Re-curve outcome. Guidance that takes this OTS start moving it north quickly while hits come west more across the Bahamas. Will have to see it's movement today/tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CCHurricane Posted August 23, 2014 Share Posted August 23, 2014 Guidance that takes this OTS start moving it north quickly while hits come west more across the Bahamas. Will have to see it's movement today/tonight. Exactly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted August 23, 2014 Share Posted August 23, 2014 The Euro and most of its ensembles are not a threat to land. With the GFDl and HWRF moving left along with the GFS, there might be some model prestige is on the line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 23, 2014 Share Posted August 23, 2014 The early 18z guidance is in and appear to be centered on a track into the western Bahamas with a close pass to Florida and or other parts of the southeast coast still possible. While a track into the Gulf of Mexico is becoming less likely, a very large spread continues amongst the ensemble members and individual spaghetti tropical guidance. Anyone from Miami Beach to Nova Scotia should still keep an eye on this one. As I type this the 12z ECMWF ensemble mean is still coming in. By hour 72 the ensemble mean is centered SW of the operational and by 78 hours the difference is quite noticeable. By 84 hours the ensemble mean is knocking on the door of southeast FL while the operational run was well northeast of that position at the same hour. After reviewing the ECMWF ensembles and the latest hurricane spaghetti models, I don't see how any competent forecaster could say that a track out to sea with minimal impacts to land is overwhelmingly likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkSC Posted August 23, 2014 Share Posted August 23, 2014 Per HPC afternoon discussion, NHC is going with the more southwest solutions. REGARDING POSSIBLE TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT AFFECTING U.S...COORDINATION WITH THE NHC RESULTED IN A BLEND OF FORECAST CONTINUITY WITH THE SOUTHWESTERN HALF OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE THAT BRINGS POSSIBLE TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE SOUTH CAROLINA/NORTH CAROLINA COAST BY DAYS 5-6/THU-FRI BUT REMAINS SLIGHTLY OFFSHORE. THE BLEND RESULTED FROM EXCLUDING THE 00Z ECMWF/00Z CANADIAN AND SOME NORTHERN ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FROM STRONG CONSIDERATION DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN THE THEIR RESPECTIVE SHORTWAVE/LONGWAVE PATTERNS FROM THE MODEL CONSENSUS PARTICULARLY THE ENSEMBLE MEANS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE SOLUTIONS USED TO BLEND WITH CONTINUITY INCLUDED THE 06Z GEFS MEAN/12Z GFS/SOME SOUTHWESTERN MEMBERS OF THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted August 23, 2014 Share Posted August 23, 2014 Anyone have a peek at Euro Ens circa Mon/Tues position edit Euro Ens are elongated from SE GOM to NE of florida for Wed 12z and appear noticeable SW of OP at hr 96 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blazess556 Posted August 23, 2014 Share Posted August 23, 2014 96 hr ECMWF ensemble members. The 12z mean is pretty far west with track from MIA to near Pensacola. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted August 23, 2014 Share Posted August 23, 2014 Wow! thanks for the ensembles. At 96 hrs is seems obviious that it is either going to rocket stage right or linger around Fla and do ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 23, 2014 Share Posted August 23, 2014 96 hr ECMWF ensemble members. The 12z mean is pretty far west with track from MIA to near Pensacola. Thanks for posting... compare that to the 12z GFS ensembles. Still appears to be a pretty substantial amount of uncertainty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ground Scouring Posted August 23, 2014 Share Posted August 23, 2014 96L is finally starting to wrap up nicely just NW of Providenciales in the Turks and Caicos Islands. You can see convection firing over the low-level swirl as an UL anticyclone wedges over the top of the system, providing favorable divergence aloft in the ascent region. This favors more convection firing over the likely center and may indicate that we'll have Cristóbal later tonight. As I have mentioned, the stronger intensity in the region matches the HWRF's and the GFDL's solution. These two models take 96L/future Cristóbal OTS, given that a stronger system would feel the weakness to its NW. The weaker ECMWF ensembles take the system under the ridge as it misses the trough. Currently trends favor the OTS solution, as I have been consistently arguing. Reconnaissance tomorrow will definitely find a solid TC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted August 23, 2014 Share Posted August 23, 2014 Thanks for posting... compare that to the 12z GFS ensembles. Still appears to be a pretty substantial amount of uncertainty. Looks like it's FL or OTS. There are no members over the Carolinas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smog strangler Posted August 23, 2014 Share Posted August 23, 2014 Looks like we have TD #4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted August 23, 2014 Share Posted August 23, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smog strangler Posted August 23, 2014 Share Posted August 23, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 23, 2014 Share Posted August 23, 2014 New Thread for TD#4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted August 24, 2014 Share Posted August 24, 2014 The GFS for a couple of runs now has a wave developing quickly once it emerges from Africa in six days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted August 24, 2014 Share Posted August 24, 2014 I miss storms like this in the Caribbean. That's not in the Caribbean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted August 24, 2014 Share Posted August 24, 2014 Right. I just meant the Atlantic in general but, closer to the Lesser Antilles. The Lesser Antilles aren't very close at all to Isabel in that shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted August 24, 2014 Share Posted August 24, 2014 The Lesser Antilles aren't very close at all to Isabel in that shot. Southeast. Point was we haven't seen many well developed storms the past few years. A few but, this African dust has been killer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 24, 2014 Share Posted August 24, 2014 Cristobal continues the pattern of storm development being hindered while over the Tropical Atlantic and strengthening north of the Caribbean due to the drier and more stable air out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted August 24, 2014 Share Posted August 24, 2014 You can see how difficult it has been to get a hurricane in Florida since Wilma in 2005. c553bc41-87d7-423f-95e3-0d4897ed75ae_320x180.jpg http://www.weather.com/news/weather-hurricanes/florida-hurricane-free-streak-luck-run-out-20140801 Heading in to the heart of the 2014 Atlantic hurricane season, it is interesting to note that it has been 8 years, 9 months and 1 week, or 3,200 days, since a hurricane has made landfall in Florida. This is the longest stretch of consecutive years since 1851 that no hurricanes have hit the state. The longest hurricane-free streak prior to this one was five consecutive seasons from 1980 to 1984. This is impressive, considering the coastline of Florida spans more than 1,260 miles from the Gulf Coast to the Atlantic Ocean, and an average of 8 hurricanes have formed each year since 2005. Obviously a climate connection here. Would be nice to have more research on this phenomenon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kory Posted August 24, 2014 Share Posted August 24, 2014 Just checking the latest GFS, which is now out to 180 hours. It emerges quite a strong wave next Friday/Saturday and develops it quickly (one thing I have trouble believing due to the large swath of dry air). It gains quick latitude and looks like a fish storm from the get go. It's already approaching 20 N by the time it's hitting 30W by 192 hours. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 24, 2014 Share Posted August 24, 2014 Obviously a climate connection here. Would be nice to have more research on this phenomenon. The increased dry air is probably related to the change in the Hadley circulation that was discussed in a recent paper. They have an interesting thesis on the weaker temperature gradient between the tropics and midlatitudes. http://www.oriadam.info/oriadam/HCW_Expansion_2014.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted August 24, 2014 Share Posted August 24, 2014 NHC gives it 20% through day 5. Not to sound like a broken record, by dry air is the primary issue in the immediate future. Shear actually isn't all that bad. CMC and NAVGEM like it, GFS and ECMWF do not... I know where my bets are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kory Posted August 24, 2014 Share Posted August 24, 2014 ^^^ It's now 97L. Models generally keep it on a WNW track the next few days. It's not too organized currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blazess556 Posted August 25, 2014 Share Posted August 25, 2014 Still very little ensemble support for 97L, but there are a few GEFS members that develop it. Biggest detriment to development remains dry and stable air dominating the MDR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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