AvantHiatus Posted August 24, 2014 Share Posted August 24, 2014 You can see how difficult it has been to get a hurricane in Florida since Wilma in 2005. c553bc41-87d7-423f-95e3-0d4897ed75ae_320x180.jpg http://www.weather.com/news/weather-hurricanes/florida-hurricane-free-streak-luck-run-out-20140801 Heading in to the heart of the 2014 Atlantic hurricane season, it is interesting to note that it has been 8 years, 9 months and 1 week, or 3,200 days, since a hurricane has made landfall in Florida. This is the longest stretch of consecutive years since 1851 that no hurricanes have hit the state. The longest hurricane-free streak prior to this one was five consecutive seasons from 1980 to 1984. This is impressive, considering the coastline of Florida spans more than 1,260 miles from the Gulf Coast to the Atlantic Ocean, and an average of 8 hurricanes have formed each year since 2005. Obviously a climate connection here. Would be nice to have more research on this phenomenon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kory Posted August 24, 2014 Share Posted August 24, 2014 Just checking the latest GFS, which is now out to 180 hours. It emerges quite a strong wave next Friday/Saturday and develops it quickly (one thing I have trouble believing due to the large swath of dry air). It gains quick latitude and looks like a fish storm from the get go. It's already approaching 20 N by the time it's hitting 30W by 192 hours. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 24, 2014 Share Posted August 24, 2014 Obviously a climate connection here. Would be nice to have more research on this phenomenon. The increased dry air is probably related to the change in the Hadley circulation that was discussed in a recent paper. They have an interesting thesis on the weaker temperature gradient between the tropics and midlatitudes. http://www.oriadam.info/oriadam/HCW_Expansion_2014.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted August 24, 2014 Share Posted August 24, 2014 NHC gives it 20% through day 5. Not to sound like a broken record, by dry air is the primary issue in the immediate future. Shear actually isn't all that bad. CMC and NAVGEM like it, GFS and ECMWF do not... I know where my bets are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kory Posted August 24, 2014 Share Posted August 24, 2014 ^^^ It's now 97L. Models generally keep it on a WNW track the next few days. It's not too organized currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blazess556 Posted August 25, 2014 Share Posted August 25, 2014 Still very little ensemble support for 97L, but there are a few GEFS members that develop it. Biggest detriment to development remains dry and stable air dominating the MDR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TropicalAnalystwx13 Posted August 25, 2014 Share Posted August 25, 2014 Regardless of 97L, I'm more interested in the stalled front across the Gulf of Mexico. Most global models suggest an area of low pressure will try to get going as it heads towards the Texas coastline. With an upper-level low backing southwest out of the Bay of Campeche, we should see an anticyclone balloon across the region. Sneaky storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted August 25, 2014 Share Posted August 25, 2014 Regardless of 97L, I'm more interested in the stalled front across the Gulf of Mexico. Most global models suggest an area of low pressure will try to get going as it heads towards the Texas coastline. With an upper-level low backing southwest out of the Bay of Campeche, we should see an anticyclone balloon across the region. Sneaky storm? Agree. The WSI RPM model actually forms a small circulation with TS winds near the TX coast in about 72 hours. Bears at least keeping an eye on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CCHurricane Posted August 25, 2014 Share Posted August 25, 2014 12z GFS makes things interesting for 97L. Keep in mind it does keep the LP weak and it takes a while to get going but we shouldn't pay attention to intensity this far out. Path OTS is blocked by potent storm that exits western African coast. A lot can (and will) change, but still something to keep in mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 25, 2014 Share Posted August 25, 2014 While the ongoing convection in the northern Gulf has little model support the latest ASCAT reveals a nearly closed circulation with 30kt+ winds on the east side. The 12z ECMWF has this area drifting SW and eventually bringing rains to the TX and LA coasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kory Posted August 25, 2014 Share Posted August 25, 2014 12z GFS makes things interesting for 97L. Keep in mind it does keep the LP weak and it takes a while to get going but we shouldn't pay attention to intensity this far out. Path OTS is blocked by potent storm that exits western African coast. A lot can (and will) change, but still something to keep in mind. The Euro doesn't do much with 97L (it's the vorticity near the Florida Keys), but it shows a separate entity developing from the Caribbean moving into the Gulf and affecting Texas sometime next week. Just another place to keep an eye on, although the Caribbean has been very hostile this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted August 25, 2014 Share Posted August 25, 2014 The Euro doesn't do much with 97L (it's the vorticity near the Florida Keys), but it shows a separate entity developing from the Caribbean moving into the Gulf and affecting Texas sometime next week. Just another place to keep an eye on, although the Caribbean has been very hostile this year. Surprised it took people that long to post it. The GGEM and EURO show a storm. The GEFS wait until day 10 to try to spin up a weak storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted August 25, 2014 Share Posted August 25, 2014 18z GEFS are more enthusiastic about 97L, this system's future is possibly a question of when rather than if. Looks like a East Coast storm if it is able to manifest in the next 6 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eyewall2005 Posted August 26, 2014 Share Posted August 26, 2014 18z GEFS are more enthusiastic about 97L, this system's future is possibly a question of when rather than if. Looks like a East Coast storm if it is able to manifest in the next 6 days. care to share some images... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted August 26, 2014 Share Posted August 26, 2014 care to share some images... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted August 26, 2014 Share Posted August 26, 2014 . A tropical wave is forecast to move from western Africa into the far eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean by early this weekend. Conditions appear to be favorable for some development thereafter while the system moves westward at 10 to 15 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kory Posted August 26, 2014 Share Posted August 26, 2014 We've already beat 2013 in terms of number of hurricanes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted August 26, 2014 Share Posted August 26, 2014 I always hate when the NHC uses the term 'western Africa'. That covers a large amount of territory. I wish they would use country names. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eyewall2005 Posted August 26, 2014 Share Posted August 26, 2014 I"ll pass! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted August 26, 2014 Share Posted August 26, 2014 I"ll pass! Delayed developement could set it on a collision course with Miami. Euro has been showing that. It's way out in the long-range, details can change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted August 26, 2014 Share Posted August 26, 2014 0Z GFS GA landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted August 26, 2014 Share Posted August 26, 2014 CMC has it in NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AutoPenalti Posted August 26, 2014 Share Posted August 26, 2014 Delayed developement could set it on a collision course with Miami. Euro has been showing that. It's way out in the long-range, details can change. I think all he wanted to hear was "collision course with Miami" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CCHurricane Posted August 26, 2014 Share Posted August 26, 2014 CMC has it in NC. And paralleling the coast into New Englad judging animation 240 hours out. But...it is the CMC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted August 26, 2014 Share Posted August 26, 2014 And paralleling the coast into New Englad judging animation 240 hours out. But...it is the CMC Post above has GFS land fall going into GA. So it's not just the CMC. Still way out. But, looks like a good upper level setup to keep storms moving more westerly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gtg947h Posted August 26, 2014 Share Posted August 26, 2014 0Z GFS GA landfall. (and yes, I know, 10+ days out...) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted August 26, 2014 Share Posted August 26, 2014 A quick look at the next 6 to 14 days is suggesting lowering pressures across the SW Caribbean into the Western Gulf as Hurricane Cristobal exits to the NE into the N Atlantic and the Bermuda Ridge builds back into the East Coast and the Eastern Gulf of Mexico. The longer range ensemble guidance is already suggesting the potential for tropical mischief developing in the SW Caribbean Sea and moving generally NW into the Western Gulf in the first 10 days or so of September. These waters are virtually untouched with plenty of warm water with little to no shear and favorable instability. Nothing is forming at this time, but something to monitor as we begin the month of September and reach the peak of tropical development potential in the Atlantic Basin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kory Posted August 26, 2014 Share Posted August 26, 2014 NHC lowered the chances of formation for 97L. A tropical wave located about 900 miles east of the Lesser Antillescontinues to produce disorganized showers and a few thunderstorms.Environmental conditions are not expected to be favorable forsignificant development during the next couple of days, but couldbecome more conducive by the end of the week or this weekend whilethe system moves westward to west-northwestward at about 15 mph.* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. NHC is very bullish on the wave about to emerge from Africa. Looks like a fish from the get go, but could pose a problem to the Azores if it recurves faster than anticipated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted August 26, 2014 Share Posted August 26, 2014 Early morning I km Rapid Scan Visible imagery and buoy day offshore of Louisiana suggest a weak surface low may be developing SSE of Morgan City, LA. Surface winds are light out of the SE to SSE E of Houma and further W in Morgan City to Vermillion Bay, NE surface winds are observed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkSC Posted August 26, 2014 Share Posted August 26, 2014 Very good model support now for 97L developing in about 5 days (GFS, NAVGEM, CMC). A lot of dry air ahead of it until then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.