January 20-? Cold snap

[Hoosier]

-34F at LAF would qualify as crisis cold as JB put it. 

[ayuud11]

-34F at LAF would qualify as crisis cold as JB put it. 

He did warn us though, i need me some of that Brazilian model he uses..

[snowlord81]

-34F at LAF would qualify as crisis cold as JB put it. 

Haha that would be bad. My shower has frozen, I got it thawed but now the drain is frozen. Are any other models showing something like this? Yikes.

[fogbreath]

This is my third full winter here in Ohio, after three decades plus of the generally pleasant but boring weather scene of Northern California.

 

First winter was a mild one - people joked that I hadn't experienced a real winter yet.

 

Last year I did a proverbial foot dip into a snowbank - a lot more snow and cold, but still not what it could be I was informed.

 

So far this year, I think someone has pushed me full tilt into the iced-over Scioto itself - mid-20s (about the worst low temp I'd experience back in CA) feels downright balmy now 

[Chicago Storm]

Still few days out, but...

 

Records that could be in jeopardy for Chicago/ORD:

 

1/27: Min high -1 (1895) & min low -10 (1955).

1/28: Min high -3 (1966) & min low -13 (1977).

[Ottawa Blizzard]

Looks like the core of the cold will be over the upper midwest and eastern plains. One heck of a long range miss by the models. The PNA bias knows know end.

 

 

-34F at LAF would qualify as crisis cold as JB put it. 

 

 

He did warn us though, i need me some of that Brazilian model he uses..

To be honest, I think credit should be given where credit is due. He has nailed this winter so far and called out the GFS model in particular.

[Thundersnow12]

lol

 

[cyclone77]

lol

 

cold.gif

 

Holy crap lol.

 

4km NAM shows us dropping from 32 at 6pm Sunday evening to 3 above just 6hrs later at midnight. 

[beavis1729]

^ Nice...the NAM and CMC in a bitter duel till the end.

 

I gotta think that with a bit of additional fresh snow cover...that if winds can die down for any amount of time on Mon-Tues morning, ORD has a shot at -20.  But that's the wildcard...it looks windy through much of this period, similar to the early Jan outbreak.  

 

If it occurred, it would be the first -20 temp officially in Chicago since Jan 1994.  Many suburban areas hit -20 or lower in mid-Jan 2009 and early Feb 1996, but not ORD.  I think Chicago will break the daily record lows on both days. 

[daddylonglegs]

^ Nice...the NAM and CMC in a bitter duel till the end.

 

I gotta think that with a bit of additional fresh snow cover...that if winds can die down for any amount of time on Mon-Tues morning, ORD has a shot at -20.  But that's the wildcard...it looks windy through much of this period, similar to the early Jan outbreak.  

 

If it occurred, it would be the first -20 temp officially in Chicago since Jan 1994.  Many suburban areas hit -20 or lower in mid-Jan 2009 and early Feb 1996, but not ORD.  I think Chicago will break the daily record lows on both days. 

Wow..impressive.  Lets see if we can do it for Alek! 

[MidwestChaser]

Bufkit both GFS and Nam want to have temps dip to near -20 for me Tuesday morning. 

[daddylonglegs]

NAEFS continues to be a cold pig in the extended...not good for any of us

 

http://weather.gc.ca/ensemble/naefs/semaine2_combinee_e.html

[Geos]

The last temperature near -20° was 1/16/2009; -19°.

 

GFS. Given the wind, which Beavis mentioned, I think there might be too much mixing to get down to these levels.

 

[OHweather]

There will be much less wind than the January event it looks like...and unless your downwind of a lake, Monday and Tuesday nights look rather clear. 850mb temperatures won't be as cold as the early January event in general, but with a deep snow pack for much of the subforum (or at least a snow pack) and the potential for two good radiational cooling nights, we may rival or possibly pass the early January low temperatures I'd have to think.

[RCNYILWX]

There will be much less wind than the January event it looks like...and unless your downwind of a lake, Monday and Tuesday nights look rather clear. 850mb temperatures won't be as cold as the early January event in general, but with a deep snow pack for much of the subforum (or at least a snow pack) and the potential for two good radiational cooling nights, we may rival or possibly pass the early January low temperatures I'd have to think.

When ORD dipped to -18 and RFD to -25 on 1/16/09, the winds averaged 5 to 8 kts and the 850 mb temps I believe were around -20, so it can be done on Tuesday am assuming skies are clear. The snow depth will also be similar to that event.

[DAFF]

When was the last time the great lake completely froze over ??? Seems to me there might be a chance this winter by looking at how the ice has developed over the last week or so.

[OHweather]

When ORD dipped to -18 and RFD to -25 on 1/16/09, the winds averaged 5 to 8 kts and the 850 mb temps I believe were around -20, so it can be done on Tuesday am assuming skies are clear. The snow depth will also be similar to that event.

There's pretty good consensus for 850mb temps a little colder than -20 for this event and high pressure building into southern/central IL Monday night...with maybe just enough of a pressure gradient to maintain light winds. This overall looks like a decently close match to the 1/16/09 event.

 

The GFS MOS is finding dew points of -21 at ORD Tuesday morning (with a low of -17) and -26 at RFD (with a low of -21) so there's certainly potential...assuming you guys do clear like you should and don't keep much of a wind, which it looks like you shouldn't...to get close to the 1/16/09 numbers.

 

I'm thinking even I'll be walking to class in -10 or colder air temps Tuesday morning in SE Ohio. Either that or sleeping in while a few people go out and brave it.

[RCNYILWX]

Looked up the numbers for 1/16/09 at DVN:

00z: 850: -22.9 925: -20.7

12Z: 850: -20.3 925: -17.3

ILX:

00Z: 850: -21.1 925: -21.5

12Z: 850: -19.5 925: -17.9

The GFS at 12z Tues is a just hair warmer at 850 than in 09 at around -19c and slightly colder than 09 at around -20c, so it really could be close to the lows that morning (though the 00 and 06z NAM runs were both in the -23 to -24 range at 850). The surface high and ridge axis were in a slightly better position on 1/16/09 than is being progged for Tuesday at 12z, so it'll definitely come down to how much the winds can drop off with a slightly less favorable setup, assuming it doesn't change too much.

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[cyclone77]

Looked up the numbers for 1/16/09 at DVN:

00z: 850: -22.9 925: -20.7

12Z: 850: -20.3 925: -17.3

ILX:

00Z: 850: -21.1 925: -21.5

12Z: 850: -19.5 925: -17.9

The GFS at 12z Tues is a just hair warmer at 850 than in 09 at around -19c and slightly colder than 09 at around -20c, so it really could be close to the lows that morning (though the 00 and 06z NAM runs were both in the -23 to -24 range at 850). The surface high and ridge axis were in a slightly better position on 1/16/09 than is being progged for Tuesday at 12z, so it'll definitely come down to how much the winds can drop off with a slightly less favorable setup, assuming it doesn't change too much.

Sent from my SCH-I535

 

Yeah that morning in '09 we had absolutely ideal radiational cooling with perfect timing of the ridge axis.  We hit -32, but it took perfect timing to get there.  We have yet to have a setup like that this season here, as the timing has been off a bit one way or the other, or clouds have muddled things.

[A-L-E-K]

hate this so much

[Chicago WX]

hate this so much

 

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/41851-winter-1314-bantercomplaint-thread-part-1/

 

0z MEX MOS max/mins for Monday and Tuesday for LAF: -4/-5 and -4/-17. 

[gosaints]

Sref mean temp dips below -30 on Tuesday morning here. Some members dip below -35. Wtf

[Ottawa Blizzard]

Looks like the core of the cold will miss me this time, although I should still get below zero on Tuesday and Wednesday morning.

[Roger Smith]

ORD bottom ten (1873-2014) watch continues ...

 

Jan 2014 now at 16.3 after 24th now moving ahead of former 16th place 1883 to join tied 14th 1887 and 1940 in a three-way deadlock (one way of keeping warm).

 

Likely to hold steady today and drop a bit on Sunday then plunge in free fall most of next week. So further updates will be posted as new "skins" are won.

 

 

[daddylonglegs]

6z GFS shows -27F here...

[Ottawa Blizzard]

ORD bottom ten (1873-2014) watch continues ...

 

Jan 2014 now at 16.3 after 24th now moving ahead of former 16th place 1883 to join tied 14th 1887 and 1940 in a three-way deadlock (one way of keeping warm).

 

Likely to hold steady today and drop a bit on Sunday then plunge in free fall most of next week. So further updates will be posted as new "skins" are won.

Roger, I think Toronto Pearson has a chance of equaling or surpassing January 2009 for cold. Our current mean is -8.1 Celsius, versus -8.8 Celsius in 2009 and -9.4 Celsius in 2004. January 1994 will remain the king, with a mean of -12.4 Celsius, followed by January 1945, with a mean of -11.9 Celsius, January 1977 at -11.7 Celsius, January 1981 at -10.2 Celsius and January 1982 at -10.1 Celsius.

 

Wow! Those winters of the late 70s/early 80s were something else!

[RCNYILWX]

Looked up the numbers for 1/16/09 at DVN:

00z: 850: -22.9 925: -20.7

12Z: 850: -20.3 925: -17.3

ILX:

00Z: 850: -21.1 925: -21.5

12Z: 850: -19.5 925: -17.9

The GFS at 12z Tues is a just hair warmer at 850 than in 09 at around -19c and slightly colder than 09 at around -20c, so it really could be close to the lows that morning (though the 00 and 06z NAM runs were both in the -23 to -24 range at 850). The surface high and ridge axis were in a slightly better position on 1/16/09 than is being progged for Tuesday at 12z, so it'll definitely come down to how much the winds can drop off with a slightly less favorable setup, assuming it doesn't change too much.

Sent from my SCH-I535

 

Yeah that morning in '09 we had absolutely ideal radiational cooling with perfect timing of the ridge axis.  We hit -32, but it took perfect timing to get there.  We have yet to have a setup like that this season here, as the timing has been off a bit one way or the other, or clouds have muddled things.

-32, wow. I think the setup Tuesday morning is slightly better than previous ones this season though. If the high can just build in a little quicker. During the last cold snap, the second night/early am, 1/7, temperatures basically didn't drop at all and in some cases rose because the ridge was too far southwest and winds stayed up. Places that had good radiational cooling in northern IL the next 2 overnights after that actually got close to the lows from 1/7 despite much milder temps aloft.

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[Roger Smith]

Well you're seeing the same intensity of cold but that mid-month mild week pushed 2014 out of the running for 1994-style means in Ontario. The Chicago list is very closely correlated to Toronto (city) in the pre-YYZ years so as we pass some of those at ORD you can estimate how Toronto is doing longer-term. I will speculate the final value at YYZ will be --9.6 C. It will then edge out 2004.

 

I certainly recall the depth of the cold in Jan 1977, the extremes were not that impressive but the lack of any really mild days was noteworthy, like Jan 1918 from the records (I am not that old). What's coming to the Midwest next week will probably be very similar to the Jan 1857 blast of sub-zero (F) daytime temperatures in a strong NW flow. You don't mention Jan 1970 or 1971 above, I'm guessing they were probably close behind 1982, also 1984 had a cold January I recall.

[gosaints]

Seems like every gfs run gets more impressive with cold

[Ottawa Blizzard]

Well you're seeing the same intensity of cold but that mid-month mild week pushed 2014 out of the running for 1994-style means in Ontario. The Chicago list is very closely correlated to Toronto (city) in the pre-YYZ years so as we pass some of those at ORD you can estimate how Toronto is doing longer-term. I will speculate the final value at YYZ will be --9.6 C. It will then edge out 2004.

 

I certainly recall the depth of the cold in Jan 1977, the extremes were not that impressive but the lack of any really mild days was noteworthy, like Jan 1918 from the records (I am not that old). What's coming to the Midwest next week will probably be very similar to the Jan 1857 blast of sub-zero (F) daytime temperatures in a strong NW flow. You don't mention Jan 1970 or 1971 above, I'm guessing they were probably close behind 1982, also 1984 had a cold January I recall.

Roger, thanks for pointing that out. January 1970 had a mean of -10.7 Celsius, and is thus ahead of both 1981 and 1982. January 1971 had a mean of -9.2 Celsius, putting it behind all of the above mentioned winters and potentially even behind this January. January 1984 had a mean of -9.7 Celsius.

 

So, for cold since 1970, the standings are as follows:

 

1) January 1994  -12.4 Celsius

2) January 1945  -11.9 Celsius

3) January 1977  -11.7 Celsius

4) January 1970  - 10.9 Celsius

5) January 1981  - 10.2 Celsius

6) January 1982  - 10.1 Celsius

7) January 1984  -9.7 Celsius

8) January 2004  -9.4 Celsius

9) January 1971  -9.2 Celsius

10) January 2009 -8.8 Celsius

 

If there is any generation that has the right to say that winters aren't like what they were when they were young, it's the baby boom generation. Despite the media freaking out about this cold, this January won't even come close to the extremes experienced in the 70s and early 80s.